|
Profile
Personal Photo
Rating
Options
Personal Statement
beninbaltimore doesn't have a personal statement currently.
Personal Info
beninbaltimore
Rank: F5 Superstorm
Age Unknown
Male
Baltimore, MD
Birthday Unknown
Interests
Full-time graduate student at Johns Hopkins
Statistics
Joined: 8-April 10
Profile Views: 4,129*
Last Seen: 20th May 2013 - 06:34 PM
Local Time: May 22 2013, 02:37 AM
1,125 posts (1 per day)
Contact Information
No Information
No Information
No Information
No Information
* Profile views updated each hour
|
Topics
Posts
Comments
Friends
My Content
28 Mar 2013
This was a very good read. Gives a lot of insight into the skill level of the various tropical models during 2012. Perhaps it will help with this years forecast.
NHC 2012 Verification
3 Mar 2012
This was posted Thursday.
QUOTE NOUS41 KWBC 011848 PNSWSH Public Information Statement National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC 148 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2012 To: Subscribers: -Family of Services -NOAA Weather Wire Service -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network -NOAAPORT Other NWS partners and NWS employees From: Mark Tew Chief, Marine and Coastal Services Branch Subject: Minor Modification of Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Thresholds Effective May 15, 2012 Effective May 15, 2012, the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) will be adjusted slightly to resolve issues associated with the conversion of units used for wind speed. This change follows a public comment period conducted in 2011. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane (CPHC) assign intensities of hurricanes in 5-knot (kt) increments. For advisory products, these intensities are converted to miles per hour (mph) and kilometers per hour (km/h), and then rounded to the nearest 5-mph or 5-km/h increments. Challenges occur when the current Category 4 intensity is 115 kt (132.3 mph). Although 115 kt is within the Category 4 range, the equivalent rounded wind speed in mph is 130 mph, which is in the Category 3 range. To classify the hurricane as a Category 4 in both sets of units (kt and mph), NHC and CPHC must incorrectly convert 115 kt to 135 mph in the advisory products. A similar issue occurs when the current Category 4 intensity of 135 kt is converted to km/h. Effective May 15, 2012, to resolve these rounding issues, Category 4 on the SSHWS will be broadened by one mph at each end of the range, yielding a new range of 130-156 mph. This will also result in a minor modification of the Category 3 and 5 wind speed thresholds. The SSHWS will change as follows: From: Category 3: 111-130 mph (96-113 kt, 178-209 km/h) Category 4: 131-155 mph (114-135 kt, 210-249 km/h) Category 5: 156 mph or higher (136 kt or higher, 250 km/h or higher) To: Category 3: 111-129 mph (96-112 kt, 178-208 km/h) Category 4: 130-156 mph (113-136 kt, 209-251 km/h) Category 5: 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher, 252 km/h or higher) There will be no change to the wind speeds currently assigned to Categories 1 and 2. With this change, a 115-kt Category 4 hurricane will have its intensity properly converted to mph and rounded to the nearest 5 mph (130 mph) and remain within the Category 4 mph range. Important note: Since intensities are assigned using 5-kt increments, neither storms in the historical record nor any future storms will have their SSHWS category changed as a result of this modification to the scale. The NWS wishes to remind media, partners, and the public the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale provides information on wind impacts only. The scale does not provide commentary or information on other impacts or characteristics of tropical cyclones. Additional information on this change can be found at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php If you have any questions, please contact John Kuhn National Weather Service Silver Spring, Maryland 20910 301 713 1677 ext. 121 john.f.kuhn@noaa.gov National Public Information Notices are online at: http://www.weather.gov/om/notif.htm $$ source
21 Mar 2011
Hi,
I haven't researched this heavily but does anyone know why ensembles are presented as means rather than medians? When I look at the ensemble members on ewall, let's say the SREF, it displays the mean in the bottom right. However, there are 21 members, thus any outliers can have a substantial impact on the mean with a sample size of 21. Medians are less affected by outliers with a small sample size. Are there any medians out there or products available to the public? Now, I'm not questioning why it's done this way as either I am not knowledgeable enough and/or obviously, the means are shown for a reason. It's just something I've thought about because I do statistical analysis sometimes on small sample sizes, not so much for final results, but more to get a sense of what direction the data is going in. Thanks in advance. |
Last Visitors
Comments
Other users have left no comments for beninbaltimore.
Friends
There are no friends to display.
|
|
Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 22nd May 2013 - 02:37 AM |