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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Cleveland, OH
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Joined: 14-May 10
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Last Seen: 7th November 2017 - 07:47 PM
Local Time: Jun 21 2018, 09:20 AM
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My Content
6 Jul 2012
After the unusually vicious line of violent thunderstorms from Friday, June 29, I was left wondering what severe weather outbreaks - of the recent past - have featured derechos. I have put together a list of days this decade that featured major, widespread severe wind outbreaks that look to have been continuous events (so no days with just several smaller areal outbreaks), including any such days regardless of how many hail or tornado reports accompanied the storms alongside the wind. I would be interested in knowing which (if any) of these have been given the classification of derecho events (strictly derecho, no bow echoes and no squall lines - on that matter, what [as I don't know myself] characteristics differentiate a derecho from an ordinary squall line or bow echo?). I have assumed any events involving primarily tornado reports were more focused on discrete supercell storms so I didn't list any. There are a lot listed so it's fine to just hone in on any more important ones and not necessarily cover them all. Anyways here are the dates I'm looking at to see if they were derechos (and a brief description of where the possible event occurred):

May 24 (Plains/Dakotas)
June 1 (Iowa, Illinois)
June 12 (Illinois to Virginia)
June 15 (mostly OH/IN/KY)
June 18 (Iowa to Ohio - looks like a very strong derecho signal to me)
June 23 (Illinois to Ohio)
August 4 (Indiana to Virginia)
August 5 (Tennessee to Virginia)
October 25-26 (most of the Central US)
November 29-30 (Mississippi northeast to Virginia)

February 24 (Southeast)
March 23 (Ohio Valley region)
April 4 (Southeast quadrant of US)
April 9 (KY to NC/SC)
April 19-20 (Midwest down to northern Gulf states)
April 26 (Eastern Texas into Alabama/Tennessee - very large number of tornadoes with this also however)
May 10 (Ohio to NC/SC)
May 23 (Missouri to OH/KY)
May 25 (central US - also a very large tornado count with this)
May 29 (Illinois to New York)
June 15 (mainly TN/GA)
June 17-18 (two events, one from KS to KY, and another in NC/SC plus northern AL/GA)
June 26 (NE/IA/MO)
July 1 (IA/MN/WI)
July 10-11 (corridor from Plain almost to East Coast)
July 22 (mainly IN/OH)
August 9 (western NE southward to OK)
August 18 (NE/KS/MO)
August 24 (MI/IN/OH/NY and southern Ontario)
September 2 (IA, WI)

February 28-29 (KS east to WV)
May 27 (primarily PA)
May 29 (Northeast)
May 30 (KS/OK)
June 11 (MO/AR/LA to AL)
July 1 (just about anywhere in the East)
July 4-5 (MI/OH)

I'm only guessing a few of these actually were considered derechos but they all have the look as if they *might* have been.
30 Apr 2012
My area, and all of Ohio actually, is about to close out an April that, despite being fairly close to normal in temperatures, was actually COOLER than the extremely warm March. As far as I know, this is the only time in my entire life (since August 1990), in Ohio, that two consecutive months, both meteorological spring or fall months (since these are the months where average temperatures rise or fall by the greatest margin), differed in average temperature from each other in the opposite direction of what would be expected.

I know that in parts of the south-central US, April was cooler than March back in 2007. I also know many areas around the Plains flirted in 2009 with having a warmer November compared to October. And finally I know about 1907, when some places had a record warm March AND a record cold April. Nonetheless, what times, if any, can you recall in or near your region, that two consecutive months both in meteorological spring or fall had opposite temperature differences from what would be expected; that is, one of these four possibilities:

1) April cooler than March;
2) May cooler than April;
3) October warmer than September; or
4) November warmer than October

Using normals as a guidelines, these four possibilities roughly tie in having the least chance of happening in any given year. I'd be interested in if there were any other widespread or even local cases you've seen of such an unusual event!
31 Jan 2012
Title and poll are pretty self-explanatory. I'd like to know who is buying any prospect of a change in February and if so for how long.
3 Oct 2011
I am extremely curious and interested in gathering what users on here think my upcoming winter will turn out like, so I've created this thread for poll votes and posting of thoughts. I split the winter into two halves based on the fact that most people from the winter thread seem to think the colder conditions will be in the first half of winter. So if you could cast your votes and feel free to post your thoughts, that would be appreciated!

BTW I just voted average on everything as to not skew the results but so I can see the results automatically when I load the thread.

EDIT: I accidentally posted this in the main US Weather section, feel free to move it to the right place. Sorry for the mistake.
2 Sep 2011
This is a transfer (per moderator request) of a discussion started on the Lee thread in the Tropical forum:

I'm starting to get a little nervous.

Recent operational runs of the GFS, particularily today's 12Z and 18Z runs, have continually trended the track of Tropical Storm Lee further to the north and west, and now rip next week's cool airmass, expected by NWS forecasts to initially arrive as early as Sunday evening (4th), back west of my area after Tuesday, then cut it off for several days before resuming a more normal flow pattern around the weekend of the 10th-11th (hence the current end date of this thread). 850 MB temps go back up to +15C or so and it keeps trending even warmer. I really want this cooler air as it was almost 95 in my area today.

While this cold front should be a big one for finally giving the Southern Plains a break from their heat wave, I don't want to be left in the hot/sticky air either! The other models, on their latest runs, show as follows:

18Z NAM is an outlier, making Lee essentially a progressive wave along the front and the low's all the way into Kentucky by early Tuesday. Discounting this for now.

Operational 12Z ECMWF has a hint of the operational GFS idea but a little more generous with keeping it cooler. (Max 850mb temps 1 or 2C cooler with cutoff a little further east.)

Operational 12Z GEM and Ukmet are cooler and further east.

Ensemble means of GFS, ECMWF, and NAEFS are trending westward a bit but still well to the east of the operational GFS/ECMWF, especially from midweek onwards. SREF is on the more westward scenario that I don't want, though it only goes through early Tuesday.

So, not necessarily for my area alone but for the entire region affected in general, where do you think cool and warm airmasses will be located next week and do you favor a cutoff further east or west in general? If you have reasoning feel free to include it in your post(s) as well. Any thoughts would be welcome smile.gif, as patterns of model chaos like this, especially when they put cooler airmasses following hot spells in jeopardy, really get on my nerves and maybe this thread could at least be the place to post your take on the latest models as they come out and maybe even come to more of a consensus view of what will happen.
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