April showers bring May Gray
Rank: F5 Superstorm
Lake Forest, CA
Joined: 23-May 10
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Local Time: Jul 25 2014, 08:06 PM
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11 May 2014
Yet another unusual Santa Ana Wind event in the middle of May is expected to start tomorrow bringing heat all the way to the beaches, which are usually cool and often cloudy at this time of year. A quote from the San Diego forecast discussion is shown below.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PUSHES AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL CREATE STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS AT
TIMES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. FORECAST PEAK WIND GUSTS AND TIMING
SUN MORNING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...NE 35 TO 50 MPH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE INLAND EMPIRE...55 TO 70 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 80 MPH
THROUGH PASSES AND ALONG COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO...RIVERSIDE AND ORANGE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
MON MORNING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...E TO NE 45 TO 55 MPH ALONG
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
TUE MORNING THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...E TO NE 40 TO 50 MPH OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS...55 TO 70 MPH...WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 80 MPH THROUGH PASSES AND ALONG COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
WED MORNING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...E 35 TO 50 MPH...WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 55 MPH ALONG COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
IN SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN EACH EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH FLATTENS. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER SW CA SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COMBINED
WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS...WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SOAR CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES MON...TUE...AND ESPECIALLY WED
AND THU. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT PEAK UNTIL THU...WITH NEAR 25
DEGREES C FORECAST...HIGHS WILL QUICKLY APPROACH 100 DEGREES F IN
SOME VALLEY AND COASTAL LOCATIONS TUE...WED AND THU. THE FIRST HEAT
ADVISORY OF THE YEAR MAY BE NEEDED FOR WED AND THU. SANTA ANA WINDS
WILL PUSH THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS FAR OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS STARTING ON FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
As much as I tend to complain about cool and cloudy weather and prefer the summer warmth, I am not looking forward to this upcoming heat wave and Santa Ana event. We normally do not get such a persistent Santa Ana in middle of the fall and winter when the Santa Ana season is at its peak. This is very unusual for May, which tends to be one of the cloudiest months of the year near the coast with dominant onshore flow. California is already in an exceptional drought and 4 days of being nervous about extreme fire danger is not something I will enjoy. We can get warm to hot weather in May without the dangers and dryness brought on by Santa Ana Winds. We'll have to hope and pray that we make it through this week with no significant damage.
At the same time as our heat wave, Denver is expected to be hit by a late season snowstorm which could bring more than half a foot of snow there.
22 Mar 2014
Forecasts have been advertising a weak storm to hit around next Wednesday giving Southern California its first chance of rain and mountain snow since the freak storm we had at the beginning of March. So far it looks to be a weak storm and many areas may get nothing from it, but there is a decent cold front that should go through.
In the meantime, just as spring has arrived, some weaker troughs have brought a very deep marine layer and cooler weather than we have had during most of the past Winter. Some models have also been forecasting a long-wave trough to develop over the West and replacing the ridging pattern that has dominated us for the majority of the winter. After the record heat of the past two weekends and the relatively warm winter, it is feeling more like winter just arrived rather than the Spring Equinox that occurred last Thursday. As the winter was dominated by dryness and offshore flow and the spring months are most likely to have strong offshore flow and marine layer, it is very likely that the spring months could average cooler than the past winter for daytime highs in most coastal and some valley locations of Southern California.
Will this be one of the years where the following saying comes true?
Winter in spring
Spring in summer
Summer in fall
Fall, not at all
8 Feb 2014
Here are some questions to answer about most memorable weather experiences and a few other things.
1. Describe the climate where you live.
2. What is your most memorable weather experience during the winter?
3. What is your most memorable weather experience during the summer?
4. What type of weather do you like most?
a. Sunny and warm to hot
5. Describe any other memorable weather experience
8 Feb 2014
Which sitcoms do you like better? Old ones such as The Cosby Show, Brady Bunch, and Gilligan's Island or today's modern sitcoms which seem to require sex and profanity.
Personally I like the older ones better. The Cosby Show is really funny and it has no dirty stuff in it. Gilligan's Island is also really funny, even though the situations are not always realistic. Most modern sitcoms seem to require sex or profanity because that's what producers think people like today. I hate having over 100 channels and finding nothing worth watching every night.
13 Oct 2013
After a wild week of weather starting with hot temperatures, high fire danger, and strong Santa Ana Winds followed by an unseasonably cold and strong winter-like Pacific storm, the weather for the following week looks to be much more uneventful. The last few days have been mild to cool following the storm. By tomorrow high pressure developing over the Great Basin will bring weak to moderate offshore flow which is expected to last into most of the coming week. This will be much weaker than the previous Santa Ana event, but the fire danger will still increase and temperatures West of the mountains will be slightly above normal.
From the NWS San Diego Sunday afternoon forecast discussion.
THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. ALSO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BUILD...BRINGING WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EACH NIGHT/MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY...DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS WILL PROBABLY SEE NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THAN THEY WERE EARLIER FOR THIS TIME. UPPER WIND SUPPORT STILL LOOKS TO BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM12 AND LOCAL WRF DO SHOW SOME 20-25 KNOT 850 MB WIND BARBS...COMPARED TO 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE 06Z RUNS. THUS...WE COULD SEE SOME 40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE FAVORED WIND-PRONE MOUNTAIN AND COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS.
19 May 2014 - 0:07
26 Jan 2014 - 1:39
25 Aug 2013 - 17:49
9 Jul 2013 - 15:18
13 May 2013 - 10:42
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