April showers bring May Gray
Rank: F5 Superstorm
Lake Forest, CA
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Local Time: May 22 2015, 01:27 AM
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12 May 2015
An excerpt from this afternoon's forecast discussion at NWS San Diego
MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH-RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH BOTH OF THE WAVES THAT
MOVE ACROSS SW CA. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO CREATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 7000 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FT
BY FRIDAY MORNING.
...FORECAST STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THU AFTN - SAT MORNING...
DESERTS.............0.15 TO 0.50 INCHES
COAST AND VALLEYS...0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES
MOUNTAINS...........1.00 TO 2.25 INCHES
...FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THU AFTN - SAT MORNING...
6000 TO 6500 FT...1 TO 3 INCHES
6500 TO 7500 FT...4 TO 6 INCHES
ABOVE 7500 FT.....7 TO 10 INCHES
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST...AND 10 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTS TO THE EAST.
After a winter of record warmth and drought, this is the 2nd major storm to hit us in the month of May and the forecast precipitation totals are impressive! It is more than most storms this past winter. Even the deserts look like they will get some rain from this in the middle of May and the snow levels will be very low for May.
Combined with last week's storm, are in we in for a May Miracle?
8 May 2015
I found this topic on another weather board, so I decided to put it here
What places in the world have the perfect climate where you envy those living there?
For me it's Honolulu Hawaii. High temperatures average in the low to mid 80s year round, but there is always a nice breeze from the ocean, so it never gets extremely hot. It can rain any day of the year, but it's always a warm rain and never lasts too long, so you don't need to worry about drought. During the evening temperatures drop into the 70s for most of the year and the coldest it will ever get any time of year is probably the low 60s.
Southern California is close to perfect with cool but not extremely cold winters, but even then if there's a storm it usually lasts one or two days at most and then you get a few nice sunny days. There are occasional 80 degree days in the winter. Summer is hot, but you can almost always go to the beach to cool down. Also, it's not as hot other places in the country. However, the May Gray and June Gloom are the one disappointing thing. Just when the rest of the country is warming up, you can get overcast skies that persist a week or longer and you think summer will never come.
4 May 2015
After another unseasonal heat wave last week, winter has not quite had its final say as another unseasonably cold system dives down from the Gulf of Alaska later this week and could bring snow levels down to 6000 ft. or lower. It will be preceded by a weaker system today that is already causing mountain and desert thunderstorms and general trofiness is expected throughout the entire week, so cool weather lovers enjoy.
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 AM PDT MON MAY 4 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COAST
AND VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-WED)...
A LITTLE STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED A FAIRLY
THICK BLANKET OF DEEP MARINE LAYER CLOUDS OVER THE L.A. COUNTY COAST
AND VALLEYS ALONG WITH OVER NORTHERN SLO COUNTY...ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE COAST IT`S NOT QUITE A THICK AND IS ABSENT OVER THE SBA COUNTY
SOUTH COAST. THE INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALSO COOLED
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREE COOL DOWN FROM
YESTERDAY`S HIGHS...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN SLO COUNTY WHERE TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. EXPECT FAIRLY SLOW CLEARING TO THE
BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH VERY NOTICEABLE EDDYS SHOWING UP
ON THE LATEST VIS LOOP L.A. COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE THE SLOWEST TO
CLEAR. THE STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HAD GUSTS TO JUST
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE A VERY
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TODAY WITH THE STRONGER ONSHORE
ON THE CONVECTIVE FRONT...LATEST PARAMETERS AND HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
TRW THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. THE ONE FAVORABLE
FACTOR IS THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA THAT`S
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION EAST OF SOCAL IN AZ. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LIFT AND MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND IT FROM JUST
EAST OF SAN DIEGO NORTHWARD INTO THE SOCAL DESERTS. SOME OF THIS MAY
BLEED INTO THE SAN GABRIELS...AND WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY BY
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WITH EMPHASIS ON BETTER CHANCES OF NO MEASURABLE VERSUS
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
INTERESTING WEATHER ON TAP FOR THU AND FRI AS A COLD FOR MID MAY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OUT OF OREGON AND INTO CALIFORNIA. MDLS WERE
FOR A WHILE HOLDING THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE WEST WHICH WOULD BE BEST
FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW THEY ARE FORECASTING A DRIER EASTWARD TRACK
THAT REALLY ONLY FAVORS L.A. COUNTY. BIASED THE RAIN CHC TOWARDS LA
COUNTY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE AREA THU MORNING TO CREATE
SOME DRIZZLE. EVEN IF IT DOES RAIN IT WILL NOT RAIN MUCH. WILL HOLD
OFF ON TSTMS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW. HGTS ARE FCST TO FALL TO 560 DM OR 20 DM BLO NORMAL MAX
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD 3 TO 6 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL ACROSS THE COASTS AND 8 TO 16 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR THE VLYS
AND DESERT AREAS.
THE LOW WILL KICK OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
FOR SUNNIER DAYS AND WARMER TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
20 Apr 2015
A weak low pressure may cause some unsettled weather for California starting as early as Tuesday morning. Here is a quote from the 9:30 am forecast discussion from NWS San Diego.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
DEEP MARINE LAYER UP TO 3000 FEET THIS MORNING WHICH RESULTED IN LOW
CLOUDS SOLID ALONG THE COAST AND PATCHY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS AND
INLAND EMPIRE. CLOUDS WILL THIN AND BREAK UP BUT WATER VAPOR
DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW CENTER DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC
WHICH WILL FURTHER DEEPEN AND MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER INTO TUESDAY.
THUS COOLER CONDITIONS WELL INLAND TODAY AND FURTHER ON TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW ALSO BRINGS A COOLER AIR MASS FOR TUESDAY AS IT IS
FORECAST TO TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS BRINGS
MARGINAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY AS WELL...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM. THE
FAVORED REGION IS THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHICH
IMPACTS THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THERE IS
ALSO ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE WARM SST IN THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE -20C 500 MB COOL POOL TUESDAY MORNING.
A SECOND AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FOLLOW THIS
WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL TAKE A
SIMILAR TRACK BUT DIVE FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE SWINGING ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE CENTER TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAJA ON THURSDAY. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY LINGERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE WEAKNESS ALOFT BUT THE INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SUFFICIENT CAPE ON THURSDAY AND THE UPPER LOW CENTER
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO INTO THE DESERT SLOPES AND POSSIBLE DESERT FLOOR.
THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT UPPER LOW TRACK DIFFERENCES IN NWP BUT
GENERALLY THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FINAL WEAKER OPEN SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WEAK AS IT CARVES INTO
ARIZONA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS SCENARIO IS DRYER FOR FRIDAY BUT
IF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH AS PROGGED BY A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ITS STILL A SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT FOR EASTERN AREAS.
OVERALL THE SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY IS SHOWERY AND
SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING THE MAIN
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDER
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
3 Apr 2015
After two months of record-breaking warmth in February and March and the driest January in California history, California's drought is worse than ever. However, winter, at least the Southern California version, does not look to be quite over yet. Ironically as Easter arrives, a pattern change looks to be occurring. Earlier forecast discussions said that the persistent West Coast ridge and East Coast trough pattern may be flip-flopping.
As it is April, we cannot expect anything too exciting in terms of precipitation amounts, but it is becoming more likely that we will get some rain next Tuesday night with snow levels down to 5000 ft. NWS Los Angeles also forecasted the possibility of more precipitation late next week in last night's Forecast Discussion.
As most people are disappointed by the lack of a winter this year, it looks like the upcoming week will finally give you some cool weather you can all enjoy.
From the NWS Los Angeles forecast discussion
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
345 AM PDT FRI APR 3 2015
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF WARM UP LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)..SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA N OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE
WINDS TODAY AND THE HIGHER TEMPS EXPECTED.
EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN HAS BACKED DOWN ON THE EXPECTED STRENGTH
OF THE OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY. DEBATED ABOUT PUTTING OUT A LOW GRADE
WIND ADVISORY OUT FOR THE USUAL OFFSHORE WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...BUT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE GRADIENTS BETWEEN LAX-DAG TO -3.9MB
BY 5 AM. OFFSHORE GRADIENT WAS ONLY -1.6MB AS OF 2 AM. BASED ON THIS
AND THE CURRENT WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THAT WERE LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY.
THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MTNS
AND LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS. EVEN THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS TO 30
MPH. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL AREAS.
AS FAR AS TEMPS FOR TODAY...THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR 5 TO 10
DEGREES OF WARMING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS OF LA/VTU
COUNTIES TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S AT THESE
LOCATIONS. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING AS WELL...BUT
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY. ALTHOUGH CAMARILLO WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MID 80S...THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS MIGHT NOT
FEEL THE FULL EFFECT OF THE SANTA ANA WINDS FOR LONG...AS THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED ACROSS THE REGION AS A RATHER COLD UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH SOUTH JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NW. THERE WILL BE A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW AFFECTING
ALL OF CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER IN
MOST AREAS WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. A STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENT
WILL BRING GUSTY SW WINDS INTO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS
WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST AND LA/VTU COUNTY COAST AND PROBABLY
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE SUNDOWNER WINDS ACROSS THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS SANTA BARBARA SOUTH
COAST GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
BY SUNDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT ACROSS THE VALLEYS...BUT
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING AT THE BEACHES UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN MOST COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY NEEDED
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BOTH MODELS ARE NOW IN SYNC AS A
COLD FRONT HOLDS TOGETHER BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
CENTRAL COAST INITIALLY BY TUESDAY MORNING AND HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES SOUTH INTO LA COUNTY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE FRONT COMING FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS SHOULD DRAW IN SOME BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
ALSO...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FT ON TUESDAY. STILL
TOO EARLY TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN LOOKS MORE ENCOURAGING FOR
AT LEAST SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS LA COUNTY. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO
CHANCE FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION AND THE MOUNTAINS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION. EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
11 May 2015 - 19:42
4 May 2015 - 5:51
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