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April showers bring May Gray
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Jet Developer
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20 Apr 2015
A weak low pressure may cause some unsettled weather for California starting as early as Tuesday morning. Here is a quote from the 9:30 am forecast discussion from NWS San Diego.

QUOTE
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

DEEP MARINE LAYER UP TO 3000 FEET THIS MORNING WHICH RESULTED IN LOW
CLOUDS SOLID ALONG THE COAST AND PATCHY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS AND
INLAND EMPIRE. CLOUDS WILL THIN AND BREAK UP BUT WATER VAPOR
DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW CENTER DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC
WHICH WILL FURTHER DEEPEN AND MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER INTO TUESDAY.
THUS COOLER CONDITIONS WELL INLAND TODAY AND FURTHER ON TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW ALSO BRINGS A COOLER AIR MASS FOR TUESDAY AS IT IS
FORECAST TO TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS BRINGS
MARGINAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY AS WELL...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM. THE
FAVORED REGION IS THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHICH
IMPACTS THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THERE IS
ALSO ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE WARM SST IN THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE -20C 500 MB COOL POOL TUESDAY MORNING.

A SECOND AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FOLLOW THIS
WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL TAKE A
SIMILAR TRACK BUT DIVE FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE SWINGING ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE CENTER TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAJA ON THURSDAY. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY LINGERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE WEAKNESS ALOFT BUT THE INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SUFFICIENT CAPE ON THURSDAY AND THE UPPER LOW CENTER
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO INTO THE DESERT SLOPES AND POSSIBLE DESERT FLOOR.
THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT UPPER LOW TRACK DIFFERENCES IN NWP BUT
GENERALLY THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FINAL WEAKER OPEN SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WEAK AS IT CARVES INTO
ARIZONA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS SCENARIO IS DRYER FOR FRIDAY BUT
IF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH AS PROGGED BY A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ITS STILL A SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT FOR EASTERN AREAS.

OVERALL THE SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY IS SHOWERY AND
SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING THE MAIN
RAINFALL.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDER
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
3 Apr 2015
After two months of record-breaking warmth in February and March and the driest January in California history, California's drought is worse than ever. However, winter, at least the Southern California version, does not look to be quite over yet. Ironically as Easter arrives, a pattern change looks to be occurring. Earlier forecast discussions said that the persistent West Coast ridge and East Coast trough pattern may be flip-flopping.

As it is April, we cannot expect anything too exciting in terms of precipitation amounts, but it is becoming more likely that we will get some rain next Tuesday night with snow levels down to 5000 ft. NWS Los Angeles also forecasted the possibility of more precipitation late next week in last night's Forecast Discussion.

As most people are disappointed by the lack of a winter this year, it looks like the upcoming week will finally give you some cool weather you can all enjoy.

From the NWS Los Angeles forecast discussion

QUOTE
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
345 AM PDT FRI APR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF WARM UP LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)..SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA N OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE
WINDS TODAY AND THE HIGHER TEMPS EXPECTED.

EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN HAS BACKED DOWN ON THE EXPECTED STRENGTH
OF THE OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY. DEBATED ABOUT PUTTING OUT A LOW GRADE
WIND ADVISORY OUT FOR THE USUAL OFFSHORE WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...BUT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE GRADIENTS BETWEEN LAX-DAG TO -3.9MB
BY 5 AM. OFFSHORE GRADIENT WAS ONLY -1.6MB AS OF 2 AM. BASED ON THIS
AND THE CURRENT WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THAT WERE LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY.
THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MTNS
AND LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS. EVEN THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS TO 30
MPH. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL AREAS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS FOR TODAY...THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR 5 TO 10
DEGREES OF WARMING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS OF LA/VTU
COUNTIES TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S AT THESE
LOCATIONS. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING AS WELL...BUT
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY. ALTHOUGH CAMARILLO WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MID 80S...THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS MIGHT NOT
FEEL THE FULL EFFECT OF THE SANTA ANA WINDS FOR LONG...AS THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED ACROSS THE REGION AS A RATHER COLD UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH SOUTH JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NW. THERE WILL BE A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW AFFECTING
ALL OF CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER IN
MOST AREAS WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. A STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENT
WILL BRING GUSTY SW WINDS INTO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS
WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST AND LA/VTU COUNTY COAST AND PROBABLY
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE SUNDOWNER WINDS ACROSS THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS SANTA BARBARA SOUTH
COAST GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

BY SUNDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT ACROSS THE VALLEYS...BUT
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING AT THE BEACHES UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN MOST COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY NEEDED
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BOTH MODELS ARE NOW IN SYNC AS A
COLD FRONT HOLDS TOGETHER BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
CENTRAL COAST INITIALLY BY TUESDAY MORNING AND HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES SOUTH INTO LA COUNTY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE FRONT COMING FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS SHOULD DRAW IN SOME BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
ALSO...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FT ON TUESDAY. STILL
TOO EARLY TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN LOOKS MORE ENCOURAGING FOR
AT LEAST SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS LA COUNTY. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO
CHANCE FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION AND THE MOUNTAINS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION. EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
18 Feb 2015
For the first time in what seems to be ages, Southern California will be affected by some troughs of low pressure. Still it is not expected to give much, if any, rain and will likely not prevent this February from being one of the warmest, if not the warmest, in history.

From NWS San Diego Forecast Discussion

QUOTE
HEIGHTS WILL LOWER FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW...DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER EXTENDING NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FOOTHILLS...AND
CREATE COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY THOUGH EARLY
MONDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE...IS IT POSSIBLE THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST IF THIS DRY TREND
CONTINUES. THE MORE LIKELY RESULT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES
IN THE AFTERNOONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CREATE
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
INLAND VALLEYS TUESDAY.

MODELS THEN DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. VARIATIONS IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
CONTINUE BETWEEN THE MODELS AND EACH MODEL RUN. HOWEVER...IF THE
LOW DOES DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST TO TAP INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD HAVE PRECIPITATION DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY IN THE
EXTENDED UNTIL MORE MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
AT THE LEAST...EXPECT A DEEP MARINE LAYER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.


Also according to NWS Hanford, we could have a pattern change with a possibility of more storms within 7-10 days

QUOTE
THE ENSEMBLES HINT THAT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN WILL OCCUR IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. ERADICATION OF
THE HUDSON BAY LOW...OTHERWISE KNOWN AS THE POLAR VORTEX OVER
EASTERN CANADA...WILL ALLOW FOR A MILDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES. IF THIS HAPPENS...
THE PATHWAY WILL FINALLY OPEN FOR EPAC STORMS TO TRACK INTO
CENTRAL CA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AT THIS POINT AS
TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING MUCH IF ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA TOWARD THE END OF FEBRUARY.
WHATEVER THE CASE...IT FINALLY GIVES SOMETHING FOR WEATHER
FORECASTERS TO TALK ABOUT INSTEAD OF THE MUNDANE PATTERN WE`VE
BEEN IN.


Finally, the Tule fog can actually be enhanced by the marine layer, even though the marine layer is advection fog and the valley fog is radiation fog. This also comes from NWS Hanford.

QUOTE
...AS OF THIS WRITING...TEMPERATURES IN THE SJ VLY ARE
RUNNING 5 TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO TUESDAY. THE COOLEST LOCATIONS ARE STILL BLANKETED BY LOW
CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD COMPLETELY ERODE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
UNFORTUNATELY THE LAST PLACES IN THE SJ VLY TO CLEAR TODAY WILL
BE THE FIRST PLACES WHERE FOG WILL FORM TONIGHT. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY TO HAPPEN BETWEEN HANFORD AND TULARE NORTHWARD TO REEDLEY
AND FRESNO. AN INTRUSION OF MARINE AIR IN THE SJ VLY EARLY THIS
MORNING CAN BE BLAMED FOR THE VALLEY`S COOLER WEATHER TODAY.

TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR HAVE WARMED
TO SPRINGLIKE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
20 Jan 2015
What are your favorite and least favorite cloud types?

For me, favorite cloud is cumulonimbus, since they are the most beautiful cloud and you don't get to see much of them here in California.

My least favorite is stratus because it's just a boring cloud that's almost always gray and featureless and it never brings any beneficial rain but just lousy weather. It's also the most common cloud in California's coastal climate and in the Central Valley's winter Tule fog episodes that often cause massive car accidents.
21 Dec 2014
Today is the date of the December Solstice, when the sun reaches the furthest latitude south. It is the shortest day of the year with the lowest elevation of the sun for all points north of the equator.

So here's a quiz:

1. True or false: The earliest sunset of the year occurs on the shortest day
2. True or false: The sun does not rise anywhere north of the Arctic Circle on the Winter Solstice.
3. True or false: All points south of the equator have the shortest shadow of the year today at local solar noon.
4. True or false: The time between solar noons each day is constant throughout the year.
5. True or false: On the March Equinox, which is about three months from today, all places on earth will have 12 hours of sun up and 12 hours of sun down.
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