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April showers bring May Gray
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Jet Developer
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Jet Developer

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18 Jul 2015
After 2 weeks of cool to mild summer weather and sparse monsoonal moisture, heat and humidity are expected to increase within the next few days. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend even west of the mountains. Forecast discussion below.

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
915 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO BRING CLOUDS...WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND. SOME REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MONDAY. GRADUALLY DRIER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN OF COASTAL CLOUDS NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MOISTURE AND INSTABLITY INCREASED TODAY AND WAS SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ERUPTED JUST EAST OF BORREGO SPRINGS AND JUST
SOUTH OF INDIO. AN EARLIER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN THE IMPERIAL
VALLEY GENERATED A STRONG GUST FRONT THAT PRODUCED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
AT A FEW SPOTS. BLOWING DUST REDUCED VISIBILITY BELOW 6 MILES ACROSS
A WIDE AREA...AND AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT THERMAL FOR A SHORT
TIME. RAINFALL WAS HEAVY UNDER THE CORE OF THESE STORMS...BUT THEY
MISSED THE RAIN GAUGES. ON THE FRINGES OF ONE STORM...THERMAL PICKED
UP 0.06 INCH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATED AS FAST AS THEY ERUPTED
AND SKIES CLEARED QUITE FULLY. THE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WHILE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP BRINGING IT INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT SOME BROKEN CLOUD SHIELD BY
SUNRISE AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING
THE AFTERNOONS. THERE IS A DETECTABLE TREND BY MODELS TO MOVE THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY WE ARE CARRYING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE AN
AFTERTHOUGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND PROBABLY PATCHY AT BEST. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MUGGY THIS WEEKEND...BUT IF ENOUGH CLOUDS SUFFICIENTLY
FILTER THE SUN...IT WILL NOT BE UNBEARABLY HOT. THE CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL ALSO BE A DEALMAKER OR A DEALBREAKER FOR ALLOWING DEEP
CONVECTION TO TAKE PLACE. IF THE SUN CAN EFFICIENTLY HEAT THE
SURFACE...THAT WILL MEAN MORE THUNDERSTORMS. BUT IF TOO MANY CLOUDS
INHIBIT THAT SURFACE HEATING...THAT WOULD LIMIT THE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ON TUESDAY THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WE WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL JULY WEATHER.
THE MARINE LAYER AND NOCTURNAL COASTAL CLOUDS SHOULD REBOUND...AND
TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
25 Jun 2015
According to NWS San Diego, we should get our first monsoon event of the summer starting this weekend. It will be a change from the hot and dry weather we've had over the past few weeks. Hopefully, increased moisture and cooler temperatures will slow the spread of the Lake Fire, but dry lightning could also start more fires.

From this morning's Forecast Discussion at NWS San Diego

QUOTE
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

COASTAL CLOUDS REACHED FARTHER INLAND THIS MORNING THAN THEY HAD IN
PREVIOUS MORNINGS. AND THE MARINE INVERSION IS A LITTLE STRONGER.
THIS WILL MEAN A SLOWER CLEARING THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL TODAY
WILL FAIR AND WARM AGAIN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA TO OUR SOUTHWEST
WILL ALSO DEVELOP. THIS WILL SET UP SOME SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL DRAW MONSOON MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM MEXICO. WHILE THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...IT WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS. SO WE CONSIDER STARTING THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WHEN THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO DEEPEN. THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN WITH US THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WILL
CONTINUE TOO. THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
PROBABLY BE DISRUPTED NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT ERADICATED ALTOGETHER.
THIS IS A CHANGING SITUATION WITH CHANGING GUIDANCE SO CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW ON ASSESSING RISK WITH THESE SOLUTIONS...BUT THEY
REPRESENT OUR BEST FORECAST.
3 Jun 2015
Another unseasonably strong late spring low pressure trough is developing over the West Coast with a cutoff low expected to drift down south and move through Southern California by the end of the week. At first it looked like we could get a moisture plume from Tropical Storm Andres, but now it looks like that will move into Arizona giving them a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Still, there will be a deep marine layer which could cause some drizzle or light rain. Also, knowing the unpredictable behavior of cutoff lows, would not be totally surprised if things change and the tropical moisture drifts over Southern California.

Here is the latest Forecast Discussion from NWS San Diego

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
337 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL HELP LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...AND CREATE
DRIZZLE AT TIMES IN THE MORNINGS THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
PASSES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SLIGHT WARMING AND A RETURN TO A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT IS INDICATING THE MARINE STRATUS DECKS HAVE
INFILTRATED THROUGH THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE EARLY THIS
MORNING. ONSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT BETWEEN 7 TO 8 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO DAGGETT OVERNIGHT AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT A MODERATE CLIP THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WIND GUSTS IN THE
FAVORABLE WEST TO EAST PASSES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 55 MPH
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
FRIDAY GIVEN THE ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IS INDICATING THE APPROACH OF THE WELL
DISCUSSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME MARINE STRATUS DRIZZLE AT TIMES DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FROM ANDRES HAS BEEN MAKING A BEELINE NORTH
OVERNIGHT BUT IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A TURN TO THE RIGHT
WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS NOW. THIS MOISTURE PLUME
WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND WILL LIKELY ALMOST COMPLETELY
BYPASS OUR REGION.

MEANWHILE #2...HURRICANE BLANCA LOCATED NEAR 105W AND 12N IS
FORECAST TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY (SEE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS). FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IN WHERE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM BLANCA WILL END UP IS
LOW AT THIS TIME AND WE CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK BASED ON SEVERAL DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE EC SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE FOR SOCAL AND THAT SEEMS A LITTLE
MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY IN THAT SOLUTION OVER THE LAST
FEW RUNS.

WITH THE FIRST TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME BYPASSING OUR REGION ANY
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RESTS WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE APPROACH AND MAXIMIZATION OF THE TROUGH SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY AND GIVEN DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SAID SHOWERS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW PASSAGE...IN THE
HIGH DESERTS AND THE SAN BERN MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT SEEM TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT
THAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MODEL RUNS. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.

AS MENTIONED THE FORECAST FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HAS LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
BLANCA. FOR NOW WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS FOR
MON-WED HOWEVER NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. BEYOND BLANCA...A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER CALIFORNIA AROUND MID NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER AND MUCH WARMER INLAND TEMPERATURES.
28 May 2015
After 2 weeks of very cool weather and a few late season winter storms, it looks like high pressure should be building into California for the first time in a while. Marine layer is still fairly deep this morning, however, with a strong inversion, so some coastal areas will have slow or limited clearing today. By the end of the week there should be a strong temperature gradient between the coast and valleys with beaches still having limited sunshine, so cool weather and fog lovers should head over there if they have a chance.

High pressure lasts until early next week before the next trough moves in, but so far it does not look as strong as those we had earlier this month.

Quote from NWS San Diego forecast discussion.

QUOTE
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER STRATUS CONTINUES WEST OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS/FOG REACHING RAMONA AND ALPINE. THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM NKX SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2500 FT DEEP WITH A
STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION COULD
DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL RESTRICT THE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO INCREASE
EVERYWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST INCREASES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL LIKELY BE SAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH DESERT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND IN THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN 100 TO 105.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PAC NW WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WEST OF THE MTNS. THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.


12 May 2015
An excerpt from this afternoon's forecast discussion at NWS San Diego

QUOTE
MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH-RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH BOTH OF THE WAVES THAT
MOVE ACROSS SW CA. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO CREATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 7000 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FT
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THU AFTN - SAT MORNING...
DESERTS.............0.15 TO 0.50 INCHES
COAST AND VALLEYS...0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES
MOUNTAINS...........1.00 TO 2.25 INCHES

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THU AFTN - SAT MORNING...
6000 TO 6500 FT...1 TO 3 INCHES
6500 TO 7500 FT...4 TO 6 INCHES
ABOVE 7500 FT.....7 TO 10 INCHES

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST...AND 10 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTS TO THE EAST.


After a winter of record warmth and drought, this is the 2nd major storm to hit us in the month of May and the forecast precipitation totals are impressive! It is more than most storms this past winter. Even the deserts look like they will get some rain from this in the middle of May and the snow levels will be very low for May.

Combined with last week's storm, are in we in for a May Miracle?
Last Visitors


16 Jul 2015 - 10:59


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