April showers bring May Gray
Rank: F5 Superstorm
Lake Forest, CA
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Local Time: Dec 4 2013, 04:06 PM
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13 Oct 2013
After a wild week of weather starting with hot temperatures, high fire danger, and strong Santa Ana Winds followed by an unseasonably cold and strong winter-like Pacific storm, the weather for the following week looks to be much more uneventful. The last few days have been mild to cool following the storm. By tomorrow high pressure developing over the Great Basin will bring weak to moderate offshore flow which is expected to last into most of the coming week. This will be much weaker than the previous Santa Ana event, but the fire danger will still increase and temperatures West of the mountains will be slightly above normal.
From the NWS San Diego Sunday afternoon forecast discussion.
THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. ALSO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BUILD...BRINGING WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EACH NIGHT/MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY...DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS WILL PROBABLY SEE NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THAN THEY WERE EARLIER FOR THIS TIME. UPPER WIND SUPPORT STILL LOOKS TO BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM12 AND LOCAL WRF DO SHOW SOME 20-25 KNOT 850 MB WIND BARBS...COMPARED TO 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE 06Z RUNS. THUS...WE COULD SEE SOME 40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE FAVORED WIND-PRONE MOUNTAIN AND COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS.
1 Aug 2013
Marine layer depth in Southern California reached 3300 ft. this morning, covering nearly all areas west of the mountains. This was caused by a persistent upper low over the Pacific Northwest that brought drizzle/light rain until early afternoon and temperatures in the 60s to Portland, OR. In addition, Southern California sea surface temperatures have also dropped significantly from the low 70s to mid 60s over the last 2 weeks. According to all the forecast models, the West Coast looks to stay in this pattern for the extended outlook. After a very active monsoon in July, it looks like the monsoonal moisture could stay away for quite a while, leading to very high fire danger in the mountains/deserts.
From the afternoon NWS San Diego Forecast Discussion
AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER SE NEW MEXICO...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA. THIS SET UP...WHICH HAS NOT GREATLY CHANGED
FOR A WHILE NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT DRY...SW FLOW OVER THE
REGION. THE 01/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY VERY DRY LAYER
STRETCHING FROM AROUND 3500 FT MSL TO 15K FT MSL. DEW POINTS WERE AS
LOW AS 1 DEGREE F AT TORO PEAK...2 DEGREES F AT APACHE PEAK AND 3
DEGREES F AT SAN JACINTO PEAK. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA...WITH SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OVER AT TIMES
FROM THE SW.
JUNE-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SW CA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NM/TX WILL ZONALLY BROADEN
AND FLATTEN THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN REBUILD AND CENTER OVER TX THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK. THE
01/1200 UTC GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
OCCURRING...AND HAVE A CLOSED OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY AREA
BY FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE TRANSPORT OF
VERY DRY AIR OVER SW CA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. STILL...NO PRECIP IS
FORECAST IN THE CWA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AIR AND BREEZY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN FAVORABLE WINDY MOUNTAIN PASSES/DESERT LOCATIONS.
If this June-like pattern lasts throughout August, it could rival even the very cool summer of 2010. So far, Lindbergh Field has not made it above 80 F this summer. Even in July 2010, San Diego reached 81 F on July 16.
Record low maximum temperatures were set in some places over the last few days. Downtown L.A. only reached 73 F yesterday and 74 F today. These temperatures are more like late April.
21 Jun 2013
A very unusual late season storm is forecast for early next week before a strong ridge is expected to build over the Four Corners Area by mid-week. This could bring some very wet weather to Central and Northern California, helping to ease a drought. Southern California will likely not get any rain, but could get some drizzle from a deep marine layer as well as lots of mid to high clouds.
According to NWS San Francisco Bay Area Forecast Discussion
8:38 PM - Friday June 21, 2013
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHERN CA FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE COAST AND ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
INLAND. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUNDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY. THE
DIFFICULT PART OF THE SUNDAY`S FORECAST IS DETERMINING IF RAIN
WILL FALL ON AT LEAST PART OF OUR AREA THAT DAY. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS
THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM ON SUNDAY MOVING
INLAND WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH JUST SOME AREAS OF COASTAL DRIZZLE
REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SF BAY AREA. THE 18Z GFS IS ALSO
QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS WETTER THAN THE GFS AND
NAM...BUT ONLY INITIALLY. THE ECMWF PRODUCES SOME RAINFALL ACROSS
MOST OF THE SF BAY AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST WITH
CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH BAY AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN THE
SF BAY AREA SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN CURRENT MODEL DIFFERENCES.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NORTHERN CA.
WHAT`S NOTEWORTHY ABOUT THE MONDAY SYSTEM IS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IT WILL POTENTIALLY CONTAIN. THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT
THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO A PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THEN DROP SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN CA. BOTH OF THESE MODELS SHOW NEARLY 3
INCHES OF RAIN FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT NEARLY AS
WET WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM...GENERATING ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF
THE RAINFALL THAT THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST. GIVEN THAT THIS
MOISTURE-LADEN PLUME IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACCORDING TO SATELLITE
PW MEASUREMENTS...BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS MAY BE ON THE RIGHT
TRACK WITH THEIR WET FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND THAT THE ECMWF IS
LIKELY TOO DRY. IN ANY CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL BE THE
WETTEST DAY WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME IN THE NORTH
BAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTH...BUT
HERE TOO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY GIVEN DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS. IN FACT...THE GFS FORECASTS ALMOST NO RAIN SOUTH OF SANTA
20 May 2013
Looks like the warm weather we've had for much of the spring is going to come to an end soon, just in time for Memorial Day weekend - the unofficial start of summer, in most parts of the country - but for Southern California's, often the start of the infamous May Gray/June Gloom season.
An unseasonably deep closed low is expected to sit and spin around the Pacific Northwest for an undetermined period of time, possibly bringing record low high temperatures there. Down here it will just deepen the marine layer and bring relentless onshore flow, drizzle, slow to no clearing, and cool to cold weather.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS... MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...BURNING OFF AROUND MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY BUT NOT AS WARM ON TUESDAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND TO THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY.
There is even a possibility of some rain by next Tuesday, but the uncertainty for this is very high.
21 Dec 2012
As of 3:12 am this morning, the Winter season has started. The sun reached its furthest southern declination and is now returning north. Today is the shortest day of the year. For Southern Orange County the length of day is about 9 hours and 55 minutes with a sunrise at 6:51 am and a sunset at 4:46 pm. The earliest sunset, however, happened over 2 weeks ago, about 4 1/2 minutes earlier than today and the latest sunrise will not be until early January, about 4 1/2 minutes later than today.
Weather forecast for California has a few storms with a period of unsettled weather Saturday (Dec. 22) afternoon through Monday. For Christmas Day and the following day we get a break before the next series of storms is forecasted to hit. Unlike last year at this time, which was dominated by warm, sunny offshore flow, even the dry days are expected to be cool with very cold nights. Temperatures this morning got down to 12 F in the high desert and to the 30s in some coastal areas of Southern California.
25 Aug 2013 - 17:49
9 Jul 2013 - 15:18
13 May 2013 - 10:42
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28 Apr 2013 - 21:49
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