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idecline to have a personal statement....
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 27-May 10
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Last Seen: 19th November 2014 - 09:43 AM
Local Time: Nov 23 2014, 05:56 AM
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My Content
17 Nov 2014
It looks like the pattern is finally setting up for an extended period of Pacific Storms to flow into the West...not that any of these storms look to be 'drought breakers', (which is a misnomer in itself...no one storm is going to even put much of a dent in a three year drought). Heading into the next 4 months is the real 'wet' season in Northern California, and a series of storms would be a welcome relief from the blocking pattern of the last three years. The first storm is poised offshore, with a good deal of moisture wrapping into the system, ta warm front is crossing over the State bringing a little bit of instability and looks to be a good precursor on how active the southern stream may get in the next two weeks...
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On this WV loop you can see the classic comma shape of an extratropical cyclone forming offshore, part of the energy is being shunted north, but with a big blocking ridge in Alaska and a huge dam of cold air to our North and East, this storm looks to head directly for Central California. From reading the Disco from Monterey, CA NWS it seems the models are having a hard time with the progression of this storm. Some having it sheared and weakening, others say it will continue south(?) and likely not impact much of Northern California. IMHO it seems as if the 'models' are out of touch with 'semi-normal' California storms, and can't figure out what to do with this one. With the lack of many 'warm' regime storms in the last three years, it seems the models have forgotten how to understand an Omega block to our north and an active southern jet. It appears to my 'amateur' eye that this storm is strengthening, and looking to head straight for the SF Bay Area on Tue night/Wed. morning with showers and then steadier rain as the storm moves inland. This may be opening the door for several storms in quick succession from Thursday through Saturday.

Some 'eye candy' from WPC showing the first of several 'wet' outlooks for Central and Northern California.
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If this is any indication of the 'pattern' of the storm track(ie: Rossby Wave Train) for this winter, then it looks as if come December and January we will at least have chances of storms coming through that can be augmented by the ENSO/potential 'El Nino' conditions that are rapidly coming to fruition in the eastern equatorial Pacific basin. A continuance of the PDO change-over in the NE pacific Ocean may help to contribute to lower pressures this winter in the GOA. This doesn't guarantee any sort of outcome in California's rainfall output...but in my mind it certainly ups the chances of creating a 'parent' low in the GOA that can funnel storms into California...We shall see... unsure.gif
5 Nov 2014
It looks like we are back to high and dry for the week or so....
NOAA's extended forecast has a thermal trough over the State with warm temps. through Friday.
A piece of energy from the north may cool the State briefly with an even more significant warmup occurring early next week...

The postive PNA is an old story...with the giant extratropical low scheduled to form in the Bering Sea, the pattern is sure to stay highly amplified, so we should see the jet stream return later in the month. With an additional OKW generated in the Central Equatorial Pacific it looks as if 'El Nino' is well on his way (he may 'visit' right around Christmas with some stormy weather) wink.gif (see the 'El Nino Watch' thread in 'Long Term Forecast')
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Warm and dry for the extended period...but as noted...cool nights with the shorter daylight hours.
1 Nov 2014
Boo!..... Scary!

So here it is late Friday Night/early Saturday morning and the threads are Dead.... ohmy.gif

Halloween is slowly winding down here in Santa Cruz (Santa Carla...if you ever saw the movie 'Lost Boys")

1. Who was one of the 'stars' of Lost Boys who went on to star in a famous 'hour by hour' TV drama?

2. Can you name the 2 famous teen actors named 'Corey' who also appeared in the Lost Boys?

3. What star of Batman is now appearing in "Birdman"(The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) as a former onscreen superhero trying to revive his career? (!)

4. The star of Batman also starred in what movie named for a star?... wink.gif ( mis-spelling of a celestial body)

5. Who directed the film Batman and the movie named for a 'star'?

6. What cartoon classic (from above director) mixed Halloween themes with another Holiday?

7. This weekend is when we "Fall Back" in time ... what does this mean? (multiple choice below)

A. A change in the dynamic flux of the Sun's atmosphere is producing 'time waves'.

B. It is the when cooler temperatures arrive and we watch 'old' movies like "Somewhere In Time' or 'The Time Machine'.

C. It is the weekend when we set our clocks back to Standard Time from Daylight Savings Time.

D. The Earth is nearing the 'event horizon' of an invisible Black Hole and we will soon 'fall back in time... ohmy.gif

E. None of the above...

F. ....idecline...to answer... dry.gif
22 Oct 2014
A continued surge of Pacific moisture is flowing into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest.
By Friday a low in the GOA looks to move into the region with a fairly good chance of bringing rain into Central California. Meanwhile the far northern reaches of California and the Northwest will have been having on and off storminess as a W-E trough is bringing moisture streaming off the Pacific into the Northwest. Areas near the Ore./Cal. border and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington are expected to receive as much as 10+ inches of rain by the end of this coming weekend.
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The 96hr map from OPC shows the low and associated cold front moving in on early Saturday morning, perhaps bringing much needed rain a little further south than the last 2 systems...

This map also shows the potential interaction of remnants of Ana being entrained into the following low pressure system which could impact the West Coast late next week, and then make its way across the upper tier of the CONUS.
14 Oct 2014
A weather system is gearing up in the GOA...with a front stretching down along the coast of Northern California..This front and associated trough is moving down over the State. Light rain is possible along the coast where conditions are already cloudy and much cooler. Sacramento was still in the high 80's today...with King City in the southern Salinas Valley the National hot spot at 98oF! This heat will be a factor in limiting the first front to bring much rain to the interior of California...as the atmosphere will have to be first cooled and moistened from our extended late season warm spell.
On Thursday night a second more potent front is poised to come across the State bring ing widespread rain across Northern and Central California...and with an interesting tropical 'eddy' of moisture beginning to swirl off the Southern California coast, we could have a very interesting week...
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By Monday...depending on the track of the low...we may be impacted by the 'remnants' of the now re-curving strong Tropical cyclone Vongfang...this moisture is expected to impact much of the CONUS in the next 10 days...
Last Visitors

17 Oct 2014 - 17:20

7 Oct 2014 - 16:43

16 Sep 2014 - 2:43

5 Sep 2014 - 1:28

1 Sep 2014 - 7:17

Thank you, Idee =)
25 Sep 2012 - 3:59
Time to make a comment on my last comment! :O Sorry about that, but u forgave...thank you! :D
28 Jul 2012 - 9:54
Hi sweet guy! I just now saw your comment.. ur such a sweetie! <3 <3
4 Jul 2012 - 20:45
Just playing around 'cause you're not around to stop me! (Tongue-out emo goes here)
14 May 2012 - 17:28
Here's your comment....!
13 Aug 2011 - 0:22


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