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idecline
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 27-May 10
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Local Time: Jan 18 2017, 02:59 AM
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idecline

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6 Dec 2016
Jet stream bringing in another a series of systems..
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Rain along California coast and into Oregon Thu./Fri. Mountain snow in Cascades and Sierras could be plentiful with cold air in place...
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OPC has jet pointed right at Ore./Cal. border
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Unusual that so many 'waves' are at or below 40o latitude...seems to be some kind of parade...
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as things get sorted out the jet stays directly at same latitude according to OPC 96hr

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Too many 'features' come into play in the next 4-5 days to be sure of the 96hr OPC map...
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We have already had a 'wet' October and November in California...and this looks nothing like an El Nino or La Nina pattern to me

The massive unpredictability of a La Nada (near normal) ENSO pattern...means great 'volatility' to idee
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16 Nov 2016
Howdy to the rest of the CONUS...here comes a whale of an extratropical storm riding the jet into the West

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Wow! this is a very vigorous low pressure coming out of the GOA, and if the track and intensity of this storm remain on track, this will end up as a big game changer as far as pushing some moisture and intense weather into the CONUS.

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OPC has this as a 982mb low as it approaches the West Coast...(with a lot of 'upstream' energy lurking to advance into the region next week)

QPF's
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Disclaimer: idee's attempt at analysis is not intended as a forecast nor a 'handicapping' guide... dry.gif

QUOTE
It appears that the brunt of the storm will strike on/near the CA/OR border as the associated low remains just offshore (with some of the energy veering north to be absorbed/or recycled as the new 'wave' of energy from the Pacific comes in...

Impressions are of a vigorous storm coming in Friday night into Saturday with continued rain on Sunday.
A brief respite Monday will be followed by a perhaps more northerly focused 'wave' on Tues/Wed...
25 Oct 2016
Hello stormtrack...unusual that the storminess in the West in October does not usually make much headway into California...the last storm rained all the way south to the LA basin...now a trend of continued storminess is aimed at the West Coast...and a generous amount may again reach the northern half of California, with perhaps even a potential bonus round for the grief-stricken Dodger crowd... huh.gif

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This map shows the succession of 'linked' low pressure troughs awaiting to ride the jet stream into the West.

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A very vigorous trough and associated low pressure center is lurking off the coast...looking very ominous and more like a mid-winter storm with a lower latitude placement and a blocking ridge to the far north...

What do the hydrologists say...

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It looks like a continued wet pattern...with another wave of storminess in time for Hallow'een... ph34r.gif
8 Oct 2016
Well California may get it's first little front of the Fall season...maybe it will fizzle (as they often do in Oct.)

Long term (Bering Sea) gives troughiness a chance in the next week or so...

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Interesting in that this 'storm' is already in the lower latitude position very early in the year. Perhaps the system can entrain enough moisture from the south to actually bring widespread precipitation. California is hoping for a La Nada fall/winter with a low dipping jet stream....i.e. rain and snow in plentiful amounts...


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It looks like regardless of California's luck with this system...it looks like the CONUS could be in for a bout with severe weather in the next week...here comes unstable air entering the West Coast

19 Sep 2016
Just 'cause I'm in Cali-fornia doesn't mean idee doesn't have an interest in Hurricanes... dry.gif

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Hurricane Paine is a CAT1 Hurricane off of the Baja Mexico coast, it is still moving NNW at a good clip.
It will be big feature in the CONUS in the next few days as much needed tropical downpours will be pulled up into the desert Southwest of the country. Some moisture may even initiate stray thunderstorms in parts of California ( mostly southeastern desert areas ). With the lack of 'monsoon' moisture coming into many areas that depend on thunderstorms for much of their meager rainfall totals, this could be very welcoming.

Certainly the potential for flooding is not a joke...and the Southwest should be prepared for heavy rains.

The current 'forecast' has landfall occurring on the upper Baja peninsula on Wednesday evening..

The GOES 'rainbow shows an interesting weakness in the atmosphere to the north...

Idee is wondering if the storm may stay offshore even longer and slightly strengthen...

This would impact the California and Arizona deserts even more significantly with just a slight jog to the north...

Stay tuned....

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Last Visitors


12 Jan 2017 - 14:48


25 Oct 2016 - 19:22


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25 Aug 2015 - 13:06

Comments
Beck
Thank you, Idee =)
25 Sep 2012 - 3:59
wingsovernc
Time to make a comment on my last comment! :O Sorry about that, but u forgave...thank you! :D
28 Jul 2012 - 9:54
wingsovernc
Hi sweet guy! I just now saw your comment.. ur such a sweetie! <3 <3
4 Jul 2012 - 20:45
wingsovernc
Just playing around 'cause you're not around to stop me! (Tongue-out emo goes here)
14 May 2012 - 17:28
Beck
Here's your comment....!
13 Aug 2011 - 0:22

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