000
FXUS61 KCLE 291724
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1224 PM EST THU DEC 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS LOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY USHERING IN ARCTIC AIR FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER S WI/N IL WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE E THIS
AFTERNOON JUST N OF THE LAKE. AS IT DOES OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM
THE SW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER W OH WILL TRANSITION OVER INTO ALL RAIN BY MID DAY AS
LOW LVL TEMPS WARM. FURTHER E WE WILL SEE THE P-TYPE SLOWER TO
TRANSITION AS LOW LVL TEMPS BELOW FZ. N CENTRAL OH COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH NO EXPECTED ACCUMULATION THROUGH EARLY AFT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL RAIN. SHOWERS ARE INTERMITTENT SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH TOTAL RAINFALL...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ON
AVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT IN THE W OVERNIGHT IN THE DRY
SLOT BEHIND THE EXITING CLIPPER. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A SECOND CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF THE NW SLIDES OVER THE LAKES
REGION FOR FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NWRN OHIO COUNTIES BY 12Z FRI
SO A SMALL CHANCE POPS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS NRN OHIO. THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 850MB TEMPS WOULD
SUGGEST RAIN. LATE IN THE DAY HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -2C
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SO A MIX/CHANGEOVER WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE
THE MIX MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHEAST BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS START THE DAY +4 TO
+6C (NAM) AND -2C TO +2C (GFS) AND DROP TO -10 TO -12C (GFS) BY
EVENING SO WILL HAVE PRECIP MAINLY SNOW. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING LAKE EFFECT COULD BE STARTING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA AND -12Z OVER THE LAKE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE/CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW LAKE EFFECT AREAS AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
-14C...AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

[b].LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ON TRACK TO BE OVER THE AREA MON. SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL MON
INTO TUE BEFORE THE SHSN TAPER OFF LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FINALLY ARRIVES. WARM ADVECTION LIFT FOR WED MAY HAVE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW.[/b]

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK WARM FRONT NOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SNOW WILL
TRANSISTION TO RAIN AND THEN AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH SKIES WILL
SCATTER OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR. RIGHT NOW THE RAIN
SNOW LINE IS JUST EAST OF TOLEDO.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NE OH/NW PA.
NON-VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY IN SNOW AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH THEN SW FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
SCA FOR THE EAST HALF WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES WSW
AND ALLOWS 4 FOOT OR BETTER WAVES TO REACH THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
FLOW MAY DIMINISH SOME FRI THEN LOOKS TO INCREASE BACK TO SCA
STRENGTH FRI NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW. WEAK RIDGING
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SHOULD LIGHTEN THE FLOW FOR A WHILE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUN. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AS THEY SHIFT FROM SW TO WEST
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS