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25 Feb 2014
May as well take the plunge and track this potential on it's own rather than clutter other semi-related threads. Seems like a good shot for the east in general, though a fair amount of uncertainty remains in terms of who will see what. Gonna run with the idea that somebody sees something
06z GFS @ hour 168:
gfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 58.71K ) Number of downloads: 4
gfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 65.33K ) Number of downloads: 4
00z ECMWF @ hour 156:
ecmwf_slp_precip_east_27.png ( 184.55K ) Number of downloads: 3
ecmwf_slp_precip_east_29.png ( 193.43K ) Number of downloads: 1
ecmwf_slp_precip_labrador_31.png ( 136.13K ) Number of downloads: 1
The wide range of possibilities is evident from the ensembles, 06z GEFS @ hour 180:
f180.gif ( 132.61K ) Number of downloads: 1
My concern is twofold - that this potentially becomes a disjointed mess rather than a single consolidated low and/or that it slips south and east of the GL, in which case there's still potential for Atlantic Canada. The second possibility is a better look than cutting west in terms of precip-type for ON and QUE so that offers some degree of comfort.
8 Feb 2014
Ask and ye shall receive. I'll have a spring forecast out before the end of February but for now here's a look at the various long-range models.
CFS v2 temps for Mar-Apr-May 2014:
usT2mSeaInd2.gif ( 29.31K ) Number of downloads: 4
usPrecSeaInd2.gif ( 29.28K ) Number of downloads: 0
JAMSTEC temps for Mar-Apr-May 2014:
temp2.glob.MAM2014.1jan2014.gif ( 65.97K ) Number of downloads: 3
tprep.glob.MAM2014.1jan2014.gif ( 87.3K ) Number of downloads: 0
NMME temps for Mar-Apr-May 2014:
NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png ( 18.21K ) Number of downloads: 0
NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season2.png ( 17.93K ) Number of downloads: 0
IMME temps for Mar-Apr-May 2014:
IMME_tmp2m_us_season2.png ( 16.46K ) Number of downloads: 0
IMME_prate_us_season2.png ( 14.99K ) Number of downloads: 0
28 Jan 2014
Likely deserved a topic of it's own a while ago; I'm not willing to let it slip by without some closer attention.
EC for NS - http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=ns
Possible snowfall warning for Wednesday.
A low pressure system currently over the Southeastern United States will intensify tonight as it moves northeastward. Periods of snow are expected for much of Nova Scotia on Wednesday as the low passes south of Sable Island. Latests indications are still suggesting that snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm are possible for areas along the Atlantic coast with lesser amounts elsewhere. It remains possible that higher amounts could materialize if the low ends up tracking closer to Nova Scotia.
NFLD - http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=nl
Significant snowfall is expected on Wednesday.
A low pressure system will develop off the East Coast of the United States tonight and deepen as it moves southeast of the Avalon Peninsula Wednesday evening. Snow will develop over much of the island ahead of this system by Wednesday afternoon and will become heavy at times over the Avalon and Burin peninsulas. Current indications suggest accumulations of 10 to 15 centimetres can be expected by late-afternoon on Wednesday with potential additional accumulation Wednesday evening.
12z GFS @ hour 30:
gfs_namer_030_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 64.86K ) Number of downloads: 1
gfs_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 64.13K ) Number of downloads: 0
24-hour snowfall @ hour 42:
CAN_ASNOW24_sfc_042.gif ( 37.29K ) Number of downloads: 1
12z RGEM @ hour 30:
I_nw_r1_EST_2014012812_030.png ( 52.28K ) Number of downloads: 0
I_nw_r1_AMERICA_2014012812_036.png ( 58.14K ) Number of downloads: 1
22 Jan 2014
Accuweather - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...st-sno/22397585
650x366_01221550_uf32.jpg ( 65.45K ) Number of downloads: 2
12z ECMWF @ hour 102:
ecmwf_slp_precip_ne_18.png ( 184.8K ) Number of downloads: 4
ecmwf_slp_precip_ne_19.png ( 187.28K ) Number of downloads: 3
ecmwf_slp_precip_ne_20.png ( 190.33K ) Number of downloads: 2
24-hour snowfall @ hour 120:
ecmwf_snow_24_ne_21.png ( 152.53K ) Number of downloads: 10
12z GGEM @ hour 95:
I_nw_g1_EST_2014012212_095.png ( 45.37K ) Number of downloads: 1
I_nw_g1_EST_2014012212_100.png ( 44.43K ) Number of downloads: 1
I_nw_g1_EST_2014012212_105.png ( 44.88K ) Number of downloads: 1
I_nw_g1_EST_2014012212_110.png ( 45.91K ) Number of downloads: 1
16 Jan 2014
Another arctic chill is ready to makes itself at home as the pattern becomes highly amplified and another huge ridge builds out west. There may be some degree of ebbing and flowing of the cold weather but it's more likely to be the difference between 'below' and 'much-below' temps than any sort of meaningful warmth.
As usual, dates are subject to change as updated info rolls in.
00z GFS ensembles 2m temp anomalies, day 6:
D6.gif ( 182.09K ) Number of downloads: 1
D8.gif ( 178.59K ) Number of downloads: 2
D10.gif ( 172.49K ) Number of downloads: 1
D12.gif ( 177.84K ) Number of downloads: 1
D14.gif ( 178.25K ) Number of downloads: 3
00z GFS ensembles 500mb height anomalies @ hour 144:
f144.gif ( 177.61K ) Number of downloads: 0
f192.gif ( 181.8K ) Number of downloads: 0
f240.gif ( 179.57K ) Number of downloads: 0
00z CMC ensembles @ hour 144:
f144cmc.gif ( 167.49K ) Number of downloads: 0
f192cmc.gif ( 173K ) Number of downloads: 0
f240cmc.gif ( 170.22K ) Number of downloads: 0
13 Apr 2014 - 19:37
9 Apr 2014 - 6:09
6 Apr 2014 - 2:49
28 Mar 2014 - 17:10
25 Mar 2014 - 14:31
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