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16 Dec 2014
Brett - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...cities/39119156
Based on feedback from previous years I have decided to post my probabilities for a white Christmas in selected cities across Canada.
I will try to update these numbers on a daily basis between now and the big day.
These probabilities are based on climatology, current snow cover or lack of, expected temperature pattern up to the holiday and potential for future snowfall.
Probability of having 2 cm or more of snow on the ground on Christmas day (as of Dec 16th)
Vancouver, BC 10%
Kelowna, BC 40%
Edmonton, AB 75%
Calgary, AB 50%
Saskatoon, Sask 85%
Regina, Sask 65%
Winnipeg, Man 60%
Thunder Bay, Ont 80%
North Bay, Ont 90%
Sault Ste. Marie, Ont 95%
Windsor, Ont 40%
London, Ont 65%
Toronto, Ont 60%
St. Catharines, Ont 65%
Kingston, Ont 75%
Barrie, Ont 90%
Ottawa, Ont 85%
Montreal, Que 80%
Quebec City, Que 95%
Saint John, NB 65%
Fredericton, NB 75%
Charlottetown, PEI 60%
Halifax, NS 55%
St. John's, NL 25%
22 Nov 2014
12z GFS @ hour 108:
gfs_namer_108_1000_500_thick.gif ( 70.13K ) Number of downloads: 2
gfs_namer_120_1000_500_thick.gif ( 69.22K ) Number of downloads: 2
gfs_namer_132_1000_500_thick.gif ( 69.35K ) Number of downloads: 2
12z GGEM @ hour 108:
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PT_PN_120_0000.gif ( 163.53K ) Number of downloads: 0
PT_PN_132_0000.gif ( 158.36K ) Number of downloads: 1
6 Aug 2014
Accuweather's USA outlook - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...vortex/31254218
650x366_07291040_fall2014.jpg ( 548.63K ) Number of downloads: 2
While the fall will kick off with days of sunshine and temperatures above normal in some of the region's largest cities, including New York City and Philadelphia, the polar vortex may make its return for short, sporadic periods in September.
"The vortex could slip at times, maybe even briefly in September for the Northeast," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. "There could be a significant shot of chilly air that comes across the Great Lakes region and into the interior Northeast sometime in mid- to late-September."
As conditions in northern Canada begin to set up similar to last fall, getting colder and unsettled quickly, it is likely that this pattern could become a source for colder air to make its way down at times into the United States, inducing a drop in temperatures for the interior Northeast during mid-fall.
"We will see some dry weather in the Northeast, barring any tropical systems, in September and October but in November it will get wet," Pastelok said.
Following a soaking November for Northeastern residents, El Niņo will make its debut early this winter, fueling early winter snow across the area.
Unlike the Northeast, the trend for the northern Plains and northeastern Rockies will sway more winterlike, as early snow and cold air blast the area this fall.
While it's not uncommon for this area of the country to receive snowfall in the fall, areas from Bismarck, North Dakota, to Miles City, Montana, will be more vulnerable this fall to an increased number of snowstorms.
Aside from the snow, temperatures are expected to be near or below normal for most of the region with some parts of the southern Rockies experiencing temperatures 2 to 4 F below normal.
Following the driest year on record and a parched summer for the Golden State of California, the fall season will not provide any drought relief for the region.
With a weak El Niņo predicted this year, it is likely that the state will not receive enough rainfall to break the ongoing drought.
The Northwest region will also remain fairly dry this fall due to the split of the jet stream, a byproduct of El Niņo.
"We may see a split jet stream where one jet goes way up into western Canada and that will leave dryness across the Pacific Northwest compared to normal," Pastelok said.
30 Apr 2014
Accuweather - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...recast/26033298
650x366_04231618_summer2014.jpg ( 556.85K ) Number of downloads: 4
NMME temps for Jun-Jul-Aug:
NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png ( 19.05K ) Number of downloads: 2
NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season2.png ( 19.63K ) Number of downloads: 1
IMME_tmp2m_us_season2.png ( 17.33K ) Number of downloads: 1
IMME_prate_us_season2.png ( 16.8K ) Number of downloads: 0
temp2.glob.JJA2014.1apr2014.gif ( 65.07K ) Number of downloads: 1
tprep.glob.JJA2014.1apr2014.gif ( 81.09K ) Number of downloads: 0
CFS v2 temps:
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usPrecSeaInd2.gif ( 32.09K ) Number of downloads: 0
25 Feb 2014
May as well take the plunge and track this potential on it's own rather than clutter other semi-related threads. Seems like a good shot for the east in general, though a fair amount of uncertainty remains in terms of who will see what. Gonna run with the idea that somebody sees something
06z GFS @ hour 168:
gfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 58.71K ) Number of downloads: 4
gfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 65.33K ) Number of downloads: 4
00z ECMWF @ hour 156:
ecmwf_slp_precip_east_27.png ( 184.55K ) Number of downloads: 3
ecmwf_slp_precip_east_29.png ( 193.43K ) Number of downloads: 1
ecmwf_slp_precip_labrador_31.png ( 136.13K ) Number of downloads: 1
The wide range of possibilities is evident from the ensembles, 06z GEFS @ hour 180:
f180.gif ( 132.61K ) Number of downloads: 1
My concern is twofold - that this potentially becomes a disjointed mess rather than a single consolidated low and/or that it slips south and east of the GL, in which case there's still potential for Atlantic Canada. The second possibility is a better look than cutting west in terms of precip-type for ON and QUE so that offers some degree of comfort.
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