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bigmt
Rank: F5 Superstorm
32 years old
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Ottawa
Born Jan-18-1982
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Joined: 29-September 10
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bigmt

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22 Nov 2014
12z GFS @ hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_namer_108_1000_500_thick.gif ( 70.13K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 120:

Attached File  gfs_namer_120_1000_500_thick.gif ( 69.22K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 132:

Attached File  gfs_namer_132_1000_500_thick.gif ( 69.35K ) Number of downloads: 2


12z GGEM @ hour 108:

Attached File  PT_PN_108_0000.gif ( 164.47K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  PT_PN_120_0000.gif ( 163.53K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 132:

Attached File  PT_PN_132_0000.gif ( 158.36K ) Number of downloads: 1
6 Aug 2014
Accuweather's USA outlook - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...vortex/31254218

Attached File  650x366_07291040_fall2014.jpg ( 548.63K ) Number of downloads: 2


QUOTE
While the fall will kick off with days of sunshine and temperatures above normal in some of the region's largest cities, including New York City and Philadelphia, the polar vortex may make its return for short, sporadic periods in September.

"The vortex could slip at times, maybe even briefly in September for the Northeast," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. "There could be a significant shot of chilly air that comes across the Great Lakes region and into the interior Northeast sometime in mid- to late-September."

As conditions in northern Canada begin to set up similar to last fall, getting colder and unsettled quickly, it is likely that this pattern could become a source for colder air to make its way down at times into the United States, inducing a drop in temperatures for the interior Northeast during mid-fall.

"We will see some dry weather in the Northeast, barring any tropical systems, in September and October but in November it will get wet," Pastelok said.

Following a soaking November for Northeastern residents, El Niņo will make its debut early this winter, fueling early winter snow across the area.

Unlike the Northeast, the trend for the northern Plains and northeastern Rockies will sway more winterlike, as early snow and cold air blast the area this fall.

While it's not uncommon for this area of the country to receive snowfall in the fall, areas from Bismarck, North Dakota, to Miles City, Montana, will be more vulnerable this fall to an increased number of snowstorms.

Aside from the snow, temperatures are expected to be near or below normal for most of the region with some parts of the southern Rockies experiencing temperatures 2 to 4 F below normal.

Following the driest year on record and a parched summer for the Golden State of California, the fall season will not provide any drought relief for the region.

With a weak El Niņo predicted this year, it is likely that the state will not receive enough rainfall to break the ongoing drought.

The Northwest region will also remain fairly dry this fall due to the split of the jet stream, a byproduct of El Niņo.

"We may see a split jet stream where one jet goes way up into western Canada and that will leave dryness across the Pacific Northwest compared to normal," Pastelok said.
30 Apr 2014
Accuweather - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...recast/26033298

Attached File  650x366_04231618_summer2014.jpg ( 556.85K ) Number of downloads: 4


NMME temps for Jun-Jul-Aug:

Attached File  NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png ( 19.05K ) Number of downloads: 2


Precip:

Attached File  NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season2.png ( 19.63K ) Number of downloads: 1


IMME temps:

Attached File  IMME_tmp2m_us_season2.png ( 17.33K ) Number of downloads: 1


Precip:

Attached File  IMME_prate_us_season2.png ( 16.8K ) Number of downloads: 0


JAMSTEC temps:

Attached File  temp2.glob.JJA2014.1apr2014.gif ( 65.07K ) Number of downloads: 1


Precip:

Attached File  tprep.glob.JJA2014.1apr2014.gif ( 81.09K ) Number of downloads: 0


CFS v2 temps:

Attached File  usT2mSeaInd2.gif ( 28.36K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip:

Attached File  usPrecSeaInd2.gif ( 32.09K ) Number of downloads: 0
25 Feb 2014
May as well take the plunge and track this potential on it's own rather than clutter other semi-related threads. Seems like a good shot for the east in general, though a fair amount of uncertainty remains in terms of who will see what. Gonna run with the idea that somebody sees something tongue.gif

06z GFS @ hour 168:

Attached File  gfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 58.71K ) Number of downloads: 4


Hour 180:

Attached File  gfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 65.33K ) Number of downloads: 4


00z ECMWF @ hour 156:

Attached File  ecmwf_slp_precip_east_27.png ( 184.55K ) Number of downloads: 3


Hour 168:

Attached File  ecmwf_slp_precip_east_29.png ( 193.43K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 180:

Attached File  ecmwf_slp_precip_labrador_31.png ( 136.13K ) Number of downloads: 1


The wide range of possibilities is evident from the ensembles, 06z GEFS @ hour 180:

Attached File  f180.gif ( 132.61K ) Number of downloads: 1


My concern is twofold - that this potentially becomes a disjointed mess rather than a single consolidated low and/or that it slips south and east of the GL, in which case there's still potential for Atlantic Canada. The second possibility is a better look than cutting west in terms of precip-type for ON and QUE so that offers some degree of comfort.
8 Feb 2014
Ask and ye shall receive. I'll have a spring forecast out before the end of February but for now here's a look at the various long-range models.

CFS v2 temps for Mar-Apr-May 2014:

Attached File  usT2mSeaInd2.gif ( 29.31K ) Number of downloads: 4


Precip:

Attached File  usPrecSeaInd2.gif ( 29.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


JAMSTEC temps for Mar-Apr-May 2014:

Attached File  temp2.glob.MAM2014.1jan2014.gif ( 65.97K ) Number of downloads: 3


Precip:

Attached File  tprep.glob.MAM2014.1jan2014.gif ( 87.3K ) Number of downloads: 0


NMME temps for Mar-Apr-May 2014:

Attached File  NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png ( 18.21K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip:

Attached File  NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season2.png ( 17.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


IMME temps for Mar-Apr-May 2014:

Attached File  IMME_tmp2m_us_season2.png ( 16.46K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip:

Attached File  IMME_prate_us_season2.png ( 14.99K ) Number of downloads: 0
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