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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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6 Aug 2014
Accuweather's USA outlook - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...vortex/31254218

Attached File  650x366_07291040_fall2014.jpg ( 548.63K ) Number of downloads: 2

While the fall will kick off with days of sunshine and temperatures above normal in some of the region's largest cities, including New York City and Philadelphia, the polar vortex may make its return for short, sporadic periods in September.

"The vortex could slip at times, maybe even briefly in September for the Northeast," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. "There could be a significant shot of chilly air that comes across the Great Lakes region and into the interior Northeast sometime in mid- to late-September."

As conditions in northern Canada begin to set up similar to last fall, getting colder and unsettled quickly, it is likely that this pattern could become a source for colder air to make its way down at times into the United States, inducing a drop in temperatures for the interior Northeast during mid-fall.

"We will see some dry weather in the Northeast, barring any tropical systems, in September and October but in November it will get wet," Pastelok said.

Following a soaking November for Northeastern residents, El Niņo will make its debut early this winter, fueling early winter snow across the area.

Unlike the Northeast, the trend for the northern Plains and northeastern Rockies will sway more winterlike, as early snow and cold air blast the area this fall.

While it's not uncommon for this area of the country to receive snowfall in the fall, areas from Bismarck, North Dakota, to Miles City, Montana, will be more vulnerable this fall to an increased number of snowstorms.

Aside from the snow, temperatures are expected to be near or below normal for most of the region with some parts of the southern Rockies experiencing temperatures 2 to 4 F below normal.

Following the driest year on record and a parched summer for the Golden State of California, the fall season will not provide any drought relief for the region.

With a weak El Niņo predicted this year, it is likely that the state will not receive enough rainfall to break the ongoing drought.

The Northwest region will also remain fairly dry this fall due to the split of the jet stream, a byproduct of El Niņo.

"We may see a split jet stream where one jet goes way up into western Canada and that will leave dryness across the Pacific Northwest compared to normal," Pastelok said.
30 Apr 2014
Accuweather - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...recast/26033298

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NMME temps for Jun-Jul-Aug:

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Attached File  NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season2.png ( 19.63K ) Number of downloads: 1

IMME temps:

Attached File  IMME_tmp2m_us_season2.png ( 17.33K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  IMME_prate_us_season2.png ( 16.8K ) Number of downloads: 0

JAMSTEC temps:

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Attached File  tprep.glob.JJA2014.1apr2014.gif ( 81.09K ) Number of downloads: 0

CFS v2 temps:

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Attached File  usPrecSeaInd2.gif ( 32.09K ) Number of downloads: 0
25 Feb 2014
May as well take the plunge and track this potential on it's own rather than clutter other semi-related threads. Seems like a good shot for the east in general, though a fair amount of uncertainty remains in terms of who will see what. Gonna run with the idea that somebody sees something tongue.gif

06z GFS @ hour 168:

Attached File  gfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 58.71K ) Number of downloads: 4

Hour 180:

Attached File  gfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 65.33K ) Number of downloads: 4

00z ECMWF @ hour 156:

Attached File  ecmwf_slp_precip_east_27.png ( 184.55K ) Number of downloads: 3

Hour 168:

Attached File  ecmwf_slp_precip_east_29.png ( 193.43K ) Number of downloads: 1

Hour 180:

Attached File  ecmwf_slp_precip_labrador_31.png ( 136.13K ) Number of downloads: 1

The wide range of possibilities is evident from the ensembles, 06z GEFS @ hour 180:

Attached File  f180.gif ( 132.61K ) Number of downloads: 1

My concern is twofold - that this potentially becomes a disjointed mess rather than a single consolidated low and/or that it slips south and east of the GL, in which case there's still potential for Atlantic Canada. The second possibility is a better look than cutting west in terms of precip-type for ON and QUE so that offers some degree of comfort.
8 Feb 2014
Ask and ye shall receive. I'll have a spring forecast out before the end of February but for now here's a look at the various long-range models.

CFS v2 temps for Mar-Apr-May 2014:

Attached File  usT2mSeaInd2.gif ( 29.31K ) Number of downloads: 4


Attached File  usPrecSeaInd2.gif ( 29.28K ) Number of downloads: 0

JAMSTEC temps for Mar-Apr-May 2014:

Attached File  temp2.glob.MAM2014.1jan2014.gif ( 65.97K ) Number of downloads: 3


Attached File  tprep.glob.MAM2014.1jan2014.gif ( 87.3K ) Number of downloads: 0

NMME temps for Mar-Apr-May 2014:

Attached File  NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png ( 18.21K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season2.png ( 17.93K ) Number of downloads: 0

IMME temps for Mar-Apr-May 2014:

Attached File  IMME_tmp2m_us_season2.png ( 16.46K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  IMME_prate_us_season2.png ( 14.99K ) Number of downloads: 0
28 Jan 2014
Likely deserved a topic of it's own a while ago; I'm not willing to let it slip by without some closer attention.

EC for NS - http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=ns

Possible snowfall warning for Wednesday.

A low pressure system currently over the Southeastern United States will intensify tonight as it moves northeastward. Periods of snow are expected for much of Nova Scotia on Wednesday as the low passes south of Sable Island. Latests indications are still suggesting that snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm are possible for areas along the Atlantic coast with lesser amounts elsewhere. It remains possible that higher amounts could materialize if the low ends up tracking closer to Nova Scotia.

NFLD - http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=nl

Significant snowfall is expected on Wednesday.

A low pressure system will develop off the East Coast of the United States tonight and deepen as it moves southeast of the Avalon Peninsula Wednesday evening. Snow will develop over much of the island ahead of this system by Wednesday afternoon and will become heavy at times over the Avalon and Burin peninsulas. Current indications suggest accumulations of 10 to 15 centimetres can be expected by late-afternoon on Wednesday with potential additional accumulation Wednesday evening.

12z GFS @ hour 30:

Attached File  gfs_namer_030_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 64.86K ) Number of downloads: 1

Hour 36:

Attached File  gfs_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 64.13K ) Number of downloads: 0

24-hour snowfall @ hour 42:

Attached File  CAN_ASNOW24_sfc_042.gif ( 37.29K ) Number of downloads: 1

12z RGEM @ hour 30:

Attached File  I_nw_r1_EST_2014012812_030.png ( 52.28K ) Number of downloads: 0

Hour 36:

Attached File  I_nw_r1_AMERICA_2014012812_036.png ( 58.14K ) Number of downloads: 1
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