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bigmt
Rank: F5 Superstorm
33 years old
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Ottawa
Born Jan-18-1982
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Joined: 29-September 10
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Local Time: Feb 28 2015, 09:57 PM
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bigmt

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27 Jan 2015
WPC surface forecast for day 5:

Attached File  9lhwbg_conus.gif ( 26.9K ) Number of downloads: 5


Day 6:

Attached File  9mhwbg_conus.gif ( 26.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


Discussion - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS THE ENERGY ALOFT SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION SPREADS ENEWD...BUT GUIDANCE SIGNALS A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION THEN
SPREADS OVER ROUGHLY THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE E-CENTRAL US INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS OCCURS WITH COMPLEX STREAM INTERACTION AND INDUCED
WAVY FRONTAL FOCUS THAT LEADS TO EAST COASTAL LOW AND ENHANCED
PCPN GENESIS UP THE COAST INTO MON.

GIVEN THE FRESH SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN
U.S. OVERTOP THESE FEATURES...AN ASSOCIATED WINTER WEATHER THREAT
EXISTS ALL ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE THIS OVERALL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD.


00z GGEM @ hour 156:

Attached File  PT_PN_156_0000.gif ( 166.7K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 168:

Attached File  PT_PN_168_0000.gif ( 163.98K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 180:

Attached File  PT_PN_180_0000.gif ( 157.69K ) Number of downloads: 3


00z GEFS @ hour 168:

Attached File  f168.gif ( 144.13K ) Number of downloads: 3
26 Jan 2015
WPC surface forecast for day 3:

Attached File  9jhwbg_conus.gif ( 26.46K ) Number of downloads: 0


Day 4:

Attached File  9khwbg_conus.gif ( 27.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


Discussion - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
WPC PROGS OFFER A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL SURGE DOWN ACROSS THE US SRN TIER IN
THE WAKE OF THE TRACK OF AN ORGANIZED WINTER PCPN FOCUSING LOW
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST DAY 3/WED TO THE NORTHEAST DAY 4/FRI
ON THE HEELS OF A MAJOR LEAD SHORT RANGE STORM...BUT WITH LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.


00z GGEM @ hour 84:

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2015012600_084.png ( 41.91K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 96:

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2015012600_096.png ( 41.22K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 108:

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2015012600_108.png ( 41.25K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2015012600_120.png ( 40.38K ) Number of downloads: 0
22 Jan 2015
Might as well go for the trifecta smile.gif

WPC surface forecast for day 4:

Attached File  9khwbg_conus.gif ( 25.85K ) Number of downloads: 0


Day 5:

Attached File  9lhwbg_conus.gif ( 26.41K ) Number of downloads: 1


Discussion - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
ONCE THIS CYCLONE DEPARTS...ANOTHER DEVELOPS IN THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY
BY 12Z SUNDAY AND MID ATLANTIC MONDAY 26 JAN. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG OR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH
THE NEW CYCLONE TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA 12Z TUE 27 JAN. THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AHEAD OF THE
PACK AS THE SLOWER 18-00Z GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL CLUSTER BETTER WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 18Z GEFS MEAN.

THE NEXT CYCLONE LEADS TO A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WITH RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SNOW IN THE COLD
SECTOR ACROSS THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY SUN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NY/NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY 26 JAN.
20 Jan 2015
00z ECMWF text.

Halifax:

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YHZ    LAT=  44.88 LON=  -63.52 ELE=   476

                                            00Z JAN20
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

THU 12Z 22-JAN  -6.6    -7.7    1026      63      32    0.00     544     524    
THU 18Z 22-JAN  -3.0    -8.1    1020      60      82    0.01     540     524    
FRI 00Z 23-JAN  -4.2    -8.4    1017      73      79    0.04     536     522    
FRI 06Z 23-JAN  -6.2    -8.9    1016      79      52    0.00     534     521    
FRI 12Z 23-JAN  -8.6   -11.1    1017      73       5    0.00     531     518


Sydney:

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YQY    LAT=  46.17 LON=  -60.05 ELE=   203

                                            00Z JAN20
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

THU 12Z 22-JAN  -5.6    -9.4    1027      77      37    0.00     545     524    
THU 18Z 22-JAN  -1.9    -8.9    1023      65      62    0.00     543     525    
FRI 00Z 23-JAN  -2.1    -9.2    1016      85      98    0.08     538     526    
FRI 06Z 23-JAN  -2.6    -9.3    1009      87      97    0.27     528     522    
FRI 12Z 23-JAN  -4.1   -11.9    1010      74      57    0.05     526     519    
FRI 18Z 23-JAN  -5.1   -14.9    1011      61       4    0.01     525     516    
SAT 00Z 24-JAN  -9.8   -16.0    1015      73      11    0.01     526     514


St. John's:

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYT    LAT=  47.62 LON=  -52.73 ELE=   463

                                            00Z JAN20
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

FRI 00Z 23-JAN  -2.4    -6.6    1024      76      74    0.00     547     529    
FRI 06Z 23-JAN  -1.8    -7.2    1010      88     100    0.17     542     534    
FRI 12Z 23-JAN   1.0    -3.6     989      95      36    0.24     523     532    
FRI 18Z 23-JAN  -1.0    -8.0     989      85      70    0.09     516     525    
SAT 00Z 24-JAN  -3.4   -14.3    1003      72      51    0.01     517     515


00z GGEM @ hour 72:

Attached File  I_nw_g1_AMERICA_2015012000_072.png ( 45.52K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 78:

Attached File  I_nw_g1_AMERICA_2015012000_078.png ( 47.48K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 84:

Attached File  I_nw_g1_AMERICA_2015012000_084.png ( 48.19K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 90:

Attached File  I_nw_g1_AMERICA_2015012000_090.png ( 50.4K ) Number of downloads: 0
15 Jan 2015
WPC surface forecast for day 4:

Attached File  9khwbg_conus.gif ( 26.73K ) Number of downloads: 3


Discussion - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF GUIDANCE ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXISTENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM THAT SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS NWD NEAR THE EAST COAST SUN-MON. HOWEVER CRUCIAL DETAILS
IN TRACK/STRENGTH WILL TAKE ADDED TIME TO WORK OUT SINCE THE
SOURCE ENERGY ALOFT IS STILL OVER THE ERN PAC AND NOT SCHEDULED TO
REACH THE WEST COAST UNTIL AROUND EARLY FRI. STEADILY DEEPER
TREND OF THE SFC LOW IN ECMWF MEANS OVER THE PAST 24-36 HRS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT PARTIAL WEIGHT OF OPERATIONAL SOLNS THAT ARE STRONGER
THAN THE MEANS. WITH A FAIR CLUSTER OF MODEL SOLNS AND EVENTUALLY
THE ECMWF MEAN CLOSING OFF AN UPR LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST... AS
WELL AS A WWD TREND IN THE 00Z GFS TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF... THE WRN
PORTION OF THE SFC LOW ENVELOPE MAY BE PLAUSIBLE. HOWEVER THUS
FAR THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH RUN TO RUN MODEL CHANGES AND OVERALL
SOLN SPREAD TO FAVOR A MORE INTERMEDIATE SOLN JUST A LITTLE WWD OF
THE CENTER OF THE ENSEMBLE LOW SPREAD.


00z GEFS @ hour 120:

Attached File  f120.gif ( 124.74K ) Number of downloads: 7


Attached File  f12032.gif ( 155.51K ) Number of downloads: 6
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