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27 Jul 2012
Severe Thunderstorm watch
Issued at 1:59 PM EDT Friday 27 July 2012
24 Jul 2012
Well after yesterday's SW Ontario storm bust I hope this pans out better! I have a killer headache so that is sometimes a sign of changing weather LOL.
SPC and most models are predicting a potential MCS developing tomorrow afternoon and riding along the heat ridge to our west. It is forecast to track through central Michigan tomorrow evening, then slide SE overnight into Thursday morning into Southern Ontario.
More fine tuning of the track should be depicted by models later in the day and into tomorrow morning so at this point it is a heads up for all.
There is a potential for this to be a numerous thunderstorm event for SW/Southern Ontario (possibly including the GTA) if all things pan out as anticipated.
From the fine gents at the SPC...
WHILE SK UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BODILY MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE DAY2 OR DAY3 PERIOD...LATEST
GFS/NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT
ACROSS SD INTO MN BY 18-21Z WITHIN MODEST WLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
40-50KT THAT WILL EXTEND INTO LOWER MI. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SFC LOW WILL TRANSLATE EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE
FEATURE...LIKELY TO NEAR THE MS RIVER OVER SERN MN BY 18Z. EARLY IN
THE PERIOD VERY WARM EML PLUME WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO SWRN MN WHERE 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 12-14C. THIS
STRONG CAP WILL PREVENT WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT UNTIL SFC
TEMPERATURES SOAR ABOVE 100F...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL WI INTO LOWER
LATEST THINKING IS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SFC LOW/WARM
FRONT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THIS EARLY DAY CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT NWD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM
FRONT ENABLING SFC LOW TO TRACK TOWARD CNTRL LOWER MI AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE HAIL MAY BE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE WARM FRONT LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER WI/LOWER MI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VEERED
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM RAPIDLY AND SFC TEMPERATURES AT/NEAR 100F MAY BE COMMON FROM IA
INTO SRN WI/NRN IL INTO NRN IND. RESULTANT PROFILES SHOULD EXHIBIT
A MODIFIED INVERTED-VEE STRUCTURE AND ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN
THIS HOT AIR MASS WILL HAVE CONVECTIVE BASES NEAR 700MB. MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR SFC-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE NEAR THE WARM
FRONT WHERE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL ENCOURAGE UPDRAFT LONGEVITY.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
SPREADS TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
21 Jul 2012
From the fine folks at accuweather.com
All the ingredients are coming together for violent thunderstorms to return to the Northeast, as well as the central/southern Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley, on Monday.
The Northeast enjoyed a comfortable start to the weekend today with heat and high humidity absent–weather residents should not get used to.
Temperatures throughout the Northeast will rise back into the 80s with a slight uptick in humidity on Sunday. Monday is when the real “steam bath” will be in place as high humidity floods back in.
The stage will then be set for numerous thunderstorms capable of unleashing damaging winds and hail to ignite.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists actually expect two separate areas of potentially damaging and drenching thunderstorms to erupt on Monday.
The second area of severe weather on Monday will erupt from central Quebec to the central Great Lakes as a cold front slices into the heat and humidity.
This line of powerful thunderstorms--potentially including an isolated tornado--will first target cities from Toronto, Ontario, Erie, Pa., Detroit, Mich., and Toledo, Ohio, in the afternoon before tracking southeastward across the St. Lawrence Valley and the Northeast's interior early Monday night.
17 Jul 2012
Potential exists for scatter storms, possibly some severe through this evening and overnight over much of Southern Ontario
...GREAT LAKES TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW...HOWEVER TSTMS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY/NORTH OF SWD-SAGGING
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ALSO LARGE HAIL. THE LACK OF
STRONG UPPER FORCING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST TSTM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THUS PRECLUDES HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AND THE INCLUSION OF A CATEGORICAL RISK.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID-LOWER MS
VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY WEAK MIDLEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES TO THE MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC STATES. STRONGER MID-UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EWD TO NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE SRN EXTENT OF A CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME ATTENDANT TO A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN
CANADA. W/SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN FROM NY TO NEW
ENGLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY
DRIFTING SSWWD OFF THE ORE/NRN CA COAST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK
MIDLEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM ID/UT SHOULD PHASE EARLY
TODAY...REACHING ERN MT/WY BY PEAK HEATING AND PROCEEDING EWD INTO
THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E/SEWD ACROSS NY
AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
SETTLES SLOWLY SWD INTO SRN LOWER MI...SRN WI AND EXTREME SRN MN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SRN SD. AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC REACHING NRN MAINE BY 18/00Z...AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIME AREA BY 12Z WED.
...WRN/NRN NY TO NRN NEW ENGLAND...
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN W/SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION
WILL ADVECT MOISTURE EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH PW VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.5-1.75 INCH. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
MODEST /6.5-7 C PER KM/...THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD
RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE RANGING
FROM AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG. GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE BASED
INHIBITION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE REDUCED BY 18Z
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE
COLD FRONT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT AND AROUND 50 KT IN MAINE SUPPORTING
LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. 40-50 KT WSWLY WINDS AT
850-700 MB WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT EXTENDING FROM NRN NY/NRN VT/NRN NH TO MUCH OF MAINE
WHERE THESE WIND FIELDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...AND THERE EXISTS A TORNADO THREAT FROM NRN NY TO NWRN
MAINE WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN
VT TO NWRN MAINE GIVEN LARGER LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.
11 Jul 2012
From NOAA Detroit with potential impact into SW Ontario through the period.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH MONTANA WILL SLIP INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IT IS THE INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES WHICH
WILL DETERMINE OUR PRECIPITATING CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE RATHER NEBULOUS...AND NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO.
BROAD/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WITH MEAN FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST...MAKING FOR A REAL CLOSE
CALL DETERMINING WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE...THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN OR JUST TO OUR EAST OVER THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES. TONIGHTS 00Z GFS RUN IS ADAMANT SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WILL BE GROUND ZERO...WITH A CONVECTIVE BULLSEYES OF AROUND
2 INCHES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING. GFS
IS ALSO NOTED TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES ON FREQUENT
OCCASIONS. HOWEVER...IF ONE ASSUMES THE WAVE OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
IS A BIT STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BE BACKED A
BIT MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH...THIS IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE (NOT
NECESSARY WITH THE EXTREME QPF AMOUNTS HOWEVER). WITH THE 00Z
NAM/CANADIAN EVEN FARTHER WEST WITH THE 500 MB LOW/FORCING OVER
ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS PW VALUES
SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES AND K INDICES RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN COME
SUNDAY...BUT STILL WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE QUASI ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS...BUT THE QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER WE WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...AND THUS DRY AND VERY WARM....OR WE WILL
BE WITHIN THE CROSS-FIRE...SHORTWAVE TRACK (SEE CANADIAN) AND HAVE
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE BLENDED EXTENDED
GRIDS SUGGEST THE LATTER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
27 Feb 2013 - 6:16
14 Sep 2012 - 17:24
2 May 2012 - 12:43
6 Oct 2011 - 4:50
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