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bwfan
Rank: Tornado
42 years old
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London, ON
Born June-8-1970
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Joined: 19-November 10
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Last Seen: 25th April 2013 - 06:04 PM
Local Time: May 20 2013, 02:44 AM
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27 Jul 2012
Severe Thunderstorm watch
Issued at 1:59 PM EDT Friday 27 July 2012
24 Jul 2012
Well after yesterday's SW Ontario storm bust I hope this pans out better!
 I have a killer headache so that is sometimes a sign of changing weather LOL.SPC and most models are predicting a potential MCS developing tomorrow afternoon and riding along the heat ridge to our west. It is forecast to track through central Michigan tomorrow evening, then slide SE overnight into Thursday morning into Southern Ontario. More fine tuning of the track should be depicted by models later in the day and into tomorrow morning so at this point it is a heads up for all. There is a potential for this to be a numerous thunderstorm event for SW/Southern Ontario (possibly including the GTA) if all things pan out as anticipated. From the fine gents at the SPC... QUOTE ...GREAT LAKES...
WHILE SK UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BODILY MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE DAY2 OR DAY3 PERIOD...LATEST GFS/NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT ACROSS SD INTO MN BY 18-21Z WITHIN MODEST WLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT THAT WILL EXTEND INTO LOWER MI. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SFC LOW WILL TRANSLATE EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE...LIKELY TO NEAR THE MS RIVER OVER SERN MN BY 18Z. EARLY IN THE PERIOD VERY WARM EML PLUME WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO SWRN MN WHERE 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 12-14C. THIS STRONG CAP WILL PREVENT WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT UNTIL SFC TEMPERATURES SOAR ABOVE 100F...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL WI INTO LOWER MI. LATEST THINKING IS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS EARLY DAY CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT NWD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT ENABLING SFC LOW TO TRACK TOWARD CNTRL LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE HAIL MAY BE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE WARM FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OVER WI/LOWER MI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY AND SFC TEMPERATURES AT/NEAR 100F MAY BE COMMON FROM IA INTO SRN WI/NRN IL INTO NRN IND. RESULTANT PROFILES SHOULD EXHIBIT A MODIFIED INVERTED-VEE STRUCTURE AND ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THIS HOT AIR MASS WILL HAVE CONVECTIVE BASES NEAR 700MB. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SFC-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL ENCOURAGE UPDRAFT LONGEVITY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
21 Jul 2012
From the fine folks at accuweather.com
All the ingredients are coming together for violent thunderstorms to return to the Northeast, as well as the central/southern Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley, on Monday. The Northeast enjoyed a comfortable start to the weekend today with heat and high humidity absent–weather residents should not get used to. Temperatures throughout the Northeast will rise back into the 80s with a slight uptick in humidity on Sunday. Monday is when the real “steam bath” will be in place as high humidity floods back in. The stage will then be set for numerous thunderstorms capable of unleashing damaging winds and hail to ignite. AccuWeather.com meteorologists actually expect two separate areas of potentially damaging and drenching thunderstorms to erupt on Monday. The second area of severe weather on Monday will erupt from central Quebec to the central Great Lakes as a cold front slices into the heat and humidity. This line of powerful thunderstorms--potentially including an isolated tornado--will first target cities from Toronto, Ontario, Erie, Pa., Detroit, Mich., and Toledo, Ohio, in the afternoon before tracking southeastward across the St. Lawrence Valley and the Northeast's interior early Monday night.
17 Jul 2012
Potential exists for scatter storms, possibly some severe through this evening and overnight over much of Southern Ontario
QUOTE ...GREAT LAKES TO UPPER MS VALLEY... THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...HOWEVER TSTMS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY/NORTH OF SWD-SAGGING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ALSO LARGE HAIL. THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER FORCING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THUS PRECLUDES HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND THE INCLUSION OF A CATEGORICAL RISK. QUOTE ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY WEAK MIDLEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC STATES. STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION EWD TO NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE SRN EXTENT OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ATTENDANT TO A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN CANADA. W/SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN FROM NY TO NEW ENGLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY DRIFTING SSWWD OFF THE ORE/NRN CA COAST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM ID/UT SHOULD PHASE EARLY TODAY...REACHING ERN MT/WY BY PEAK HEATING AND PROCEEDING EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E/SEWD ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SETTLES SLOWLY SWD INTO SRN LOWER MI...SRN WI AND EXTREME SRN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SRN SD. AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC REACHING NRN MAINE BY 18/00Z...AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME AREA BY 12Z WED. QUOTE ...WRN/NRN NY TO NRN NEW ENGLAND...
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN W/SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ADVECT MOISTURE EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5-1.75 INCH. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MODEST /6.5-7 C PER KM/...THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG. GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE BASED INHIBITION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE REDUCED BY 18Z FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE COLD FRONT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT AND AROUND 50 KT IN MAINE SUPPORTING LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. 40-50 KT WSWLY WINDS AT 850-700 MB WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EXTENDING FROM NRN NY/NRN VT/NRN NH TO MUCH OF MAINE WHERE THESE WIND FIELDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AND THERE EXISTS A TORNADO THREAT FROM NRN NY TO NWRN MAINE WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN VT TO NWRN MAINE GIVEN LARGER LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.
11 Jul 2012
From NOAA Detroit with potential impact into SW Ontario through the period.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH MONTANA WILL SLIP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IT IS THE INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES WHICH WILL DETERMINE OUR PRECIPITATING CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE RATHER NEBULOUS...AND NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO. BROAD/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH MEAN FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST...MAKING FOR A REAL CLOSE CALL DETERMINING WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE...THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN OR JUST TO OUR EAST OVER THE EASTER GREAT LAKES. TONIGHTS 00Z GFS RUN IS ADAMANT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BE GROUND ZERO...WITH A CONVECTIVE BULLSEYES OF AROUND 2 INCHES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING. GFS IS ALSO NOTED TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES ON FREQUENT OCCASIONS. HOWEVER...IF ONE ASSUMES THE WAVE OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BE BACKED A BIT MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH...THIS IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE (NOT NECESSARY WITH THE EXTREME QPF AMOUNTS HOWEVER). WITH THE 00Z NAM/CANADIAN EVEN FARTHER WEST WITH THE 500 MB LOW/FORCING OVER ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS PW VALUES SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES AND K INDICES RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN COME SUNDAY...BUT STILL WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE QUASI ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS...BUT THE QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER WE WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...AND THUS DRY AND VERY WARM....OR WE WILL BE WITHIN THE CROSS-FIRE...SHORTWAVE TRACK (SEE CANADIAN) AND HAVE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE BLENDED EXTENDED GRIDS SUGGEST THE LATTER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW |
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