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knorthern_knight

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6 Apr 2015
It looks like a general rain event with maybe some isolated snow, and a risk of freezing rain for Eastern Canada during the 8th through 11th. Here are some prog GFS maps of the early stages. COBB forecast data will follow in the next post.

Attached File  gfs_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 91.64K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 93.55K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gfs_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 93.02K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gfs_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 91.46K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gfs_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 87.73K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  gfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 91.9K ) Number of downloads: 0
25 Feb 2015
EDIT: changed date in title (3rd-5th) and added possible freezing rain to subtitle

There's some potential confusion in the March 1st-3rd thread. I believe that originally, the long range forecasts showed precip on both the 1st and the 3rd. The systems aren't coming through as fast as the the original forecasts showed. Now it looks like 2 separate systems...
  1. March 1st and 2nd decent clipper
  2. March 4th-5th rain and snow event
This thread is for the 2nd event. Southern Ontario is forecast to get some rain. Ottawa/Montreal/Quebec are forecast to get all snow. Here is the 18Z COBB forecast.
CODE
The following output derived using data from
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php

London
StnID: cyxu    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%
Date/hour     FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF  |TotSN|| TQPF
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
150303/2100Z 147  10018KT  19.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000|  0.0|| 0.00
150304/0000Z 150  09019KT  23.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.100|  0.7|| 0.10
150304/0300Z 153  10019KT  27.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.110|  0.7|| 0.21
150304/0600Z 156  10013KT  30.1F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.073|  0.7|| 0.28
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
150304/0900Z 159  13010KT  33.5F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032|  0.7|| 0.31
150304/1200Z 162  22010KT  36.0F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029|  0.7|| 0.34
150304/1500Z 165  24015KT  36.2F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019|  0.7|| 0.36
150304/1800Z 168  26017KT  34.8F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020|  0.7|| 0.38
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----

Kitchener-Waterloo
StnID: cykf    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%
Date/hour     FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF  |TotSN|| TQPF
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
150303/2100Z 147  09019KT  18.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000|  0.0|| 0.00
150304/0000Z 150  09023KT  19.3F  SNOW   10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062|  0.6|| 0.06
150304/0300Z 153  10022KT  22.7F  SNOW    6:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.110|  1.3|| 0.17
150304/0600Z 156  10017KT  26.0F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.106|  1.3|| 0.28
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
150304/0900Z 159  11014KT  30.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.045|  1.3|| 0.32
150304/1200Z 162  12007KT  33.5F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052|  1.3|| 0.38
150304/1500Z 165  24015KT  37.3F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012|  1.3|| 0.39
150304/1800Z 168  26021KT  35.3F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008|  1.3|| 0.40
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----

Hamilton
StnID: cyhm    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%
Date/hour     FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF  |TotSN|| TQPF
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
150303/2100Z 147  08016KT  21.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000|  0.0|| 0.00
150304/0000Z 150  08019KT  23.4F  SNOW    7:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102|  0.7|| 0.10
150304/0300Z 153  09015KT  25.6F  SNOW    7:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.132|  1.6|| 0.23
150304/0600Z 156  09012KT  29.4F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.112|  1.6|| 0.35
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
150304/0900Z 159  09009KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089|  1.6|| 0.44
150304/1200Z 162  21007KT  35.3F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.078|  1.6|| 0.51
150304/1500Z 165  23018KT  37.7F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013|  1.6|| 0.53
150304/1800Z 168  24022KT  35.3F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007|  1.6|| 0.53
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----

Toronto
StnID: cyyz    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%
Date/hour     FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF  |TotSN|| TQPF
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
150303/2100Z 147  09017KT  20.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000|  0.0|| 0.00
150304/0000Z 150  09022KT  20.7F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037|  0.3|| 0.04
150304/0300Z 153  10020KT  24.5F  SNOW    5:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.138|  1.0|| 0.18
150304/0600Z 156  10018KT  27.0F  SNOW    6:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093|  1.6|| 0.27
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
150304/0900Z 159  10016KT  29.0F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.019|  1.6|| 0.29
150304/1200Z 162  10008KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031|  1.6|| 0.32
150304/1500Z 165  23012KT  36.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000|  1.6|| 0.32
150304/1800Z 168  25020KT  36.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000|  1.6|| 0.32
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----

Ottawa
StnID: cyow    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%
Date/hour     FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF  |TotSN|| TQPF
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
150303/2100Z 147  09005KT   6.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000|  0.0|| 0.00
150304/0000Z 150  08008KT   2.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000|  0.0|| 0.00
150304/0300Z 153  08014KT   5.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000|  0.0|| 0.00
150304/0600Z 156  08020KT   5.6F  SNOW   20:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030|  0.6|| 0.03
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
150304/0900Z 159  09022KT   6.0F  SNOW   16:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075|  1.8|| 0.11
150304/1200Z 162  08020KT   6.7F  SNOW   19:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087|  3.5|| 0.19
150304/1500Z 165  09021KT  13.2F  SNOW    6:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096|  4.0|| 0.29
150304/1800Z 168  08016KT  19.8F  SNOW    8:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098|  4.8|| 0.39
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
150304/2100Z 171  06009KT  22.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059|  5.4|| 0.44
150305/0000Z 174  28004KT  14.8F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010|  5.5|| 0.46
150305/0300Z 177  27010KT  22.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000|  5.5|| 0.46
150305/0600Z 180  26006KT  21.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000|  5.5|| 0.46
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----

Montreal
StnID: cyul    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%
Date/hour     FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF  |TotSN|| TQPF
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
150304/0900Z 159  06018KT   4.2F  SNOW   20:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061|  1.2|| 0.06
150304/1200Z 162  06018KT   8.1F  SNOW   13:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.105|  2.6|| 0.17
150304/1500Z 165  07016KT  18.0F  SNOW   13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.230|  5.6|| 0.40
150304/1800Z 168  08015KT  23.3F  SNOW   14:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.413| 11.3|| 0.81
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
150304/2100Z 171  06015KT  24.5F  SNOW    5:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.193| 12.3|| 1.00
150305/0000Z 174  02013KT  23.6F  SNOW    8:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.095| 13.1|| 1.10
150305/0300Z 177  36006KT  17.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007| 13.1|| 1.10
150305/0600Z 180  24006KT  20.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000| 13.1|| 1.10
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----

Quebec City
StnID: yqb     Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%
Date/hour     FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF  |TotSN|| TQPF
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
150304/0900Z 159  07008KT   1.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000|  0.0|| 0.00
150304/1200Z 162  07015KT   4.5F  SNOW   29:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023|  0.7|| 0.02
150304/1500Z 165  07021KT   7.2F  SNOW   21:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065|  2.1|| 0.09
150304/1800Z 168  08022KT  10.1F  SNOW   29:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.140|  6.1|| 0.23
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
150304/2100Z 171  08021KT  11.4F  SNOW   24:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.139|  9.4|| 0.37
150305/0000Z 174  07017KT  12.6F  SNOW   23:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043| 10.4|| 0.41
150305/0300Z 177  06014KT  14.1F  SNOW   17:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050| 11.2|| 0.46
150305/0600Z 180  06008KT  14.6F  SNOW   15:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033| 11.7|| 0.49
---------------------------------------------|----||-----||-----||------|-----||-----
4 Jan 2015
After days of "real soon now", it looks like we're finally getting the long-awaited cold snap in Ontario/Quebec. The wet slick on roads freezing up will probably generate a rash of auto accidents. I've cobbled together a linux bash script that cuts and pastes the temperature portion of the COBB forecast output for multiple stations into one file. Currently, I'm using
  • cyhm Hamilton
  • cyyz Toronto
  • cyow Ottawa
  • cyul Montreal
  • cyqb Quebec City
All of them are at their respective major airports. The 2nd column of output "FHr" is the number of hours in the future the forecast is done to. E.g. for the 2015/01/04 18Z forecast, the 2015/01/04 21Z value is 3 hours in the future. The COBB forecast goes out 180 hours, with all temperatures in Fahrenheit. Once temperatures drop below freezing on January 5th, they remain below freezing to the end of the forecast range. In some cases well below freezing. Here it is...

CODE
Date/hour    FHr  cyhm   cyyz   cyow   cyul   cyqb
================ ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
150104/2100Z   3  35.0F  35.3F  36.0F  35.0F  27.9F
150105/0000Z   6  30.6F  30.5F  31.5F  36.2F  32.6F
150105/0300Z   9  26.9F  28.3F  20.4F  29.6F  35.7F
150105/0600Z  12  21.8F  23.3F  17.1F  17.1F  32.6F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150105/0900Z  15  17.7F  20.0F   8.0F  12.5F  16.2F
150105/1200Z  18  13.7F  17.7F   1.8F   2.7F  10.8F
150105/1500Z  21  12.6F  16.8F  -2.3F  -0.5F   1.1F
150105/1800Z  24  13.2F  16.6F   1.3F  -1.6F  -1.6F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150105/2100Z  27  12.3F  15.7F   0.4F  -2.5F  -4.8F
150106/0000Z  30  10.3F  13.4F  -2.1F  -5.2F -12.4F
150106/0300Z  33   9.2F  12.6F  -1.9F  -7.0F -17.2F
150106/0600Z  36   9.0F  12.1F  -2.8F  -7.9F -21.2F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150106/0900Z  39   9.9F  12.5F  -2.1F  -8.4F -23.9F
150106/1200Z  42   9.9F  12.8F   0.9F  -6.1F -24.6F
150106/1500Z  45  11.9F  14.1F   8.5F  -0.5F -17.4F
150106/1800Z  48  15.2F  16.8F  16.4F   7.2F -10.0F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150106/2100Z  51  16.6F  18.2F  16.1F  10.8F -16.0F
150107/0000Z  54  15.7F  17.7F  14.3F  13.7F  -4.6F
150107/0300Z  57  14.8F  17.7F  14.4F  15.7F   1.3F
150107/0600Z  60  13.5F  16.4F  13.9F  15.2F   4.4F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150107/0900Z  63  14.4F  13.7F  11.0F  14.1F   3.6F
150107/1200Z  66   8.1F   8.0F  -3.7F  11.7F   4.2F
150107/1500Z  69   6.3F   4.0F  -7.7F   0.0F  11.4F
150107/1800Z  72   5.3F   4.2F  -8.8F  -3.7F   4.9F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150107/2100Z  75   3.5F   3.5F -11.7F  -8.8F  -6.4F
150108/0000Z  78   2.6F   3.3F -15.6F -13.8F -12.7F
150108/0300Z  81   4.0F   4.2F -18.1F -18.0F -18.9F
150108/0600Z  84   6.5F   5.4F -18.3F -20.8F -25.3F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150108/0900Z  87  10.7F  12.3F -16.7F -21.6F -28.2F
150108/1200Z  90   6.5F  12.5F -14.0F -20.7F -29.8F
150108/1500Z  93   8.7F  12.8F  -7.3F -14.0F -24.3F
150108/1800Z  96  11.2F  14.1F   1.8F  -5.0F -19.0F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150108/2100Z  99  13.5F  14.4F   9.6F  -0.9F -18.7F
150109/0000Z 102  13.2F  13.9F  13.4F   5.1F -20.3F
150109/0300Z 105  14.6F  15.9F  11.9F  14.4F  -9.5F
150109/0600Z 108  16.1F  17.0F  14.3F  14.8F  -0.7F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150109/0900Z 111  13.5F  13.9F  15.0F  11.7F   9.8F
150109/1200Z 114  12.3F  13.9F  16.2F  12.5F  12.5F
150109/1500Z 117  14.8F  18.6F  16.4F  16.1F  14.8F
150109/1800Z 120  17.3F  21.3F  19.5F  21.6F  17.9F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150109/2100Z 123  14.4F  18.8F  14.8F  17.1F  18.0F
150110/0000Z 126  10.8F  15.9F   3.5F  11.9F  13.7F
150110/0300Z 129   9.2F  14.3F  -1.9F   0.9F  11.2F
150110/0600Z 132   7.2F  12.6F  -6.6F  -6.1F  -0.9F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150110/0900Z 135   6.2F  10.3F -12.4F -12.2F  -9.3F
150110/1200Z 138   4.0F  10.3F -16.3F -16.0F -16.3F
150110/1500Z 141   6.9F   9.9F -12.9F -13.6F -15.4F
150110/1800Z 144  10.3F  13.7F  -5.4F  -8.4F -12.9F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150110/2100Z 147  10.1F  13.5F  -4.5F  -9.5F -16.9F
150111/0000Z 150   6.7F  10.3F  -2.7F -11.7F -20.7F
150111/0300Z 153   6.2F   9.4F   0.9F -11.7F -21.6F
150111/0600Z 156   7.1F   9.8F  -8.2F -16.5F -22.1F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150111/0900Z 159   8.7F  10.5F  -6.3F -16.3F -23.5F
150111/1200Z 162   9.2F  11.4F  -3.7F -15.1F -24.6F
150111/1500Z 165  12.3F  14.1F   7.1F   2.6F -10.8F
150111/1800Z 168  17.1F  18.2F  13.7F   9.6F  -4.3F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150111/2100Z 171  16.4F  17.5F  11.2F   3.6F -14.4F
150112/0000Z 174  12.1F  13.9F   9.9F   3.5F -23.0F
150112/0300Z 177  10.8F  12.8F   8.9F   9.0F -16.0F
150112/0600Z 180  10.7F  12.6F   6.3F   7.6F -12.0F
================ ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
24 Nov 2014
Another year, another set of URLs for Great Lakes ice concentration... so that's why my bookmarks weren't working rolleyes.gif

Lake Superior http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/sicecon-00.gif
Lake Huron http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/hicecon-00.gif
Lake Michigan http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/micecon-00.gif
Lake Erie http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/eicecon-00.gif
Lake Ontario http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/oicecon-00.gif

Superior/Huron/Michigan already have a little bit of ice forming.

There's also a 365-day running temperature file for the Great Lakes at http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/ftp/glsea...-temps_1024.dat This is a text file. Today is at the bottom of the file, and 1 year ago is at the top. All the lakes are cooler today than last year. This doesn't necessarily mean ice will be worse later on. I don't really expect the polar vortex to plant itself over us this winter.

CODE
Year Day    Sup.   Mich.   Huron    Erie    Ont.  St.Clr
--------------------------------------------------------

2013 327    5.60    7.20    7.14    8.25    7.36    5.51
...
2014 326    4.37    5.44    6.02    6.71    6.42    4.83
20 Sep 2014
The Great Lakes influence weather in southern Ontario. Here are some URLs, and sample images where available...
Last Visitors


1 Mar 2015 - 12:20


28 Feb 2015 - 5:34


7 Feb 2015 - 13:13


2 Feb 2015 - 14:29


9 Jan 2015 - 5:57

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