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knorthern_knight
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Greater Toronto
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knorthern_knight

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4 Jan 2015
After days of "real soon now", it looks like we're finally getting the long-awaited cold snap in Ontario/Quebec. The wet slick on roads freezing up will probably generate a rash of auto accidents. I've cobbled together a linux bash script that cuts and pastes the temperature portion of the COBB forecast output for multiple stations into one file. Currently, I'm using
  • cyhm Hamilton
  • cyyz Toronto
  • cyow Ottawa
  • cyul Montreal
  • cyqb Quebec City
All of them are at their respective major airports. The 2nd column of output "FHr" is the number of hours in the future the forecast is done to. E.g. for the 2015/01/04 18Z forecast, the 2015/01/04 21Z value is 3 hours in the future. The COBB forecast goes out 180 hours, with all temperatures in Fahrenheit. Once temperatures drop below freezing on January 5th, they remain below freezing to the end of the forecast range. In some cases well below freezing. Here it is...

CODE
Date/hour    FHr  cyhm   cyyz   cyow   cyul   cyqb
================ ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
150104/2100Z   3  35.0F  35.3F  36.0F  35.0F  27.9F
150105/0000Z   6  30.6F  30.5F  31.5F  36.2F  32.6F
150105/0300Z   9  26.9F  28.3F  20.4F  29.6F  35.7F
150105/0600Z  12  21.8F  23.3F  17.1F  17.1F  32.6F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150105/0900Z  15  17.7F  20.0F   8.0F  12.5F  16.2F
150105/1200Z  18  13.7F  17.7F   1.8F   2.7F  10.8F
150105/1500Z  21  12.6F  16.8F  -2.3F  -0.5F   1.1F
150105/1800Z  24  13.2F  16.6F   1.3F  -1.6F  -1.6F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150105/2100Z  27  12.3F  15.7F   0.4F  -2.5F  -4.8F
150106/0000Z  30  10.3F  13.4F  -2.1F  -5.2F -12.4F
150106/0300Z  33   9.2F  12.6F  -1.9F  -7.0F -17.2F
150106/0600Z  36   9.0F  12.1F  -2.8F  -7.9F -21.2F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150106/0900Z  39   9.9F  12.5F  -2.1F  -8.4F -23.9F
150106/1200Z  42   9.9F  12.8F   0.9F  -6.1F -24.6F
150106/1500Z  45  11.9F  14.1F   8.5F  -0.5F -17.4F
150106/1800Z  48  15.2F  16.8F  16.4F   7.2F -10.0F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150106/2100Z  51  16.6F  18.2F  16.1F  10.8F -16.0F
150107/0000Z  54  15.7F  17.7F  14.3F  13.7F  -4.6F
150107/0300Z  57  14.8F  17.7F  14.4F  15.7F   1.3F
150107/0600Z  60  13.5F  16.4F  13.9F  15.2F   4.4F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150107/0900Z  63  14.4F  13.7F  11.0F  14.1F   3.6F
150107/1200Z  66   8.1F   8.0F  -3.7F  11.7F   4.2F
150107/1500Z  69   6.3F   4.0F  -7.7F   0.0F  11.4F
150107/1800Z  72   5.3F   4.2F  -8.8F  -3.7F   4.9F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150107/2100Z  75   3.5F   3.5F -11.7F  -8.8F  -6.4F
150108/0000Z  78   2.6F   3.3F -15.6F -13.8F -12.7F
150108/0300Z  81   4.0F   4.2F -18.1F -18.0F -18.9F
150108/0600Z  84   6.5F   5.4F -18.3F -20.8F -25.3F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150108/0900Z  87  10.7F  12.3F -16.7F -21.6F -28.2F
150108/1200Z  90   6.5F  12.5F -14.0F -20.7F -29.8F
150108/1500Z  93   8.7F  12.8F  -7.3F -14.0F -24.3F
150108/1800Z  96  11.2F  14.1F   1.8F  -5.0F -19.0F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150108/2100Z  99  13.5F  14.4F   9.6F  -0.9F -18.7F
150109/0000Z 102  13.2F  13.9F  13.4F   5.1F -20.3F
150109/0300Z 105  14.6F  15.9F  11.9F  14.4F  -9.5F
150109/0600Z 108  16.1F  17.0F  14.3F  14.8F  -0.7F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150109/0900Z 111  13.5F  13.9F  15.0F  11.7F   9.8F
150109/1200Z 114  12.3F  13.9F  16.2F  12.5F  12.5F
150109/1500Z 117  14.8F  18.6F  16.4F  16.1F  14.8F
150109/1800Z 120  17.3F  21.3F  19.5F  21.6F  17.9F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150109/2100Z 123  14.4F  18.8F  14.8F  17.1F  18.0F
150110/0000Z 126  10.8F  15.9F   3.5F  11.9F  13.7F
150110/0300Z 129   9.2F  14.3F  -1.9F   0.9F  11.2F
150110/0600Z 132   7.2F  12.6F  -6.6F  -6.1F  -0.9F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150110/0900Z 135   6.2F  10.3F -12.4F -12.2F  -9.3F
150110/1200Z 138   4.0F  10.3F -16.3F -16.0F -16.3F
150110/1500Z 141   6.9F   9.9F -12.9F -13.6F -15.4F
150110/1800Z 144  10.3F  13.7F  -5.4F  -8.4F -12.9F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150110/2100Z 147  10.1F  13.5F  -4.5F  -9.5F -16.9F
150111/0000Z 150   6.7F  10.3F  -2.7F -11.7F -20.7F
150111/0300Z 153   6.2F   9.4F   0.9F -11.7F -21.6F
150111/0600Z 156   7.1F   9.8F  -8.2F -16.5F -22.1F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150111/0900Z 159   8.7F  10.5F  -6.3F -16.3F -23.5F
150111/1200Z 162   9.2F  11.4F  -3.7F -15.1F -24.6F
150111/1500Z 165  12.3F  14.1F   7.1F   2.6F -10.8F
150111/1800Z 168  17.1F  18.2F  13.7F   9.6F  -4.3F
---------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
150111/2100Z 171  16.4F  17.5F  11.2F   3.6F -14.4F
150112/0000Z 174  12.1F  13.9F   9.9F   3.5F -23.0F
150112/0300Z 177  10.8F  12.8F   8.9F   9.0F -16.0F
150112/0600Z 180  10.7F  12.6F   6.3F   7.6F -12.0F
================ ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
24 Nov 2014
Another year, another set of URLs for Great Lakes ice concentration... so that's why my bookmarks weren't working rolleyes.gif

Lake Superior http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/sicecon-00.gif
Lake Huron http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/hicecon-00.gif
Lake Michigan http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/micecon-00.gif
Lake Erie http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/eicecon-00.gif
Lake Ontario http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/oicecon-00.gif

Superior/Huron/Michigan already have a little bit of ice forming.

There's also a 365-day running temperature file for the Great Lakes at http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/ftp/glsea...-temps_1024.dat This is a text file. Today is at the bottom of the file, and 1 year ago is at the top. All the lakes are cooler today than last year. This doesn't necessarily mean ice will be worse later on. I don't really expect the polar vortex to plant itself over us this winter.

CODE
Year Day    Sup.   Mich.   Huron    Erie    Ont.  St.Clr
--------------------------------------------------------

2013 327    5.60    7.20    7.14    8.25    7.36    5.51
...
2014 326    4.37    5.44    6.02    6.71    6.42    4.83
20 Sep 2014
The Great Lakes influence weather in southern Ontario. Here are some URLs, and sample images where available...
13 Sep 2014
Up till now we've had mostly localized frost events in Eastern Canada this season. The FIM progs show a cool air mass sliding southeastwards from the Arctic, through Ontario/Quebec/Maritimes, during the 17th to the 20th. Much of Eastern Canada looks like it'll be experiencing frost 2 or 3 nights in a row.

Note that the American maps use "ye olde Fair-n-hot" temperatures. The forecast is for temperatures 2 metres (approx 6 feet) above the surface. While the Golden Horseshoe escapes the 2-metre frost, there will likely be ground frost outside the areas covered by the red 32 Fahrenheit line. To cut down on map clutter, I'm only posting 06Z and 12Z (2:00 AM EDT and 8:00 AM EDT respectively) forecast maps.


Wednesday the 17th

Attached File  temp_2m_f090.png ( 61.45K ) Number of downloads: 4

Attached File  temp_2m_f096.png ( 60.86K ) Number of downloads: 0




Thursday the 18th

Attached File  temp_2m_f114.png ( 61.77K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f120.png ( 60.24K ) Number of downloads: 0




Friday the 19th

Attached File  temp_2m_f138.png ( 60.17K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f144.png ( 58.08K ) Number of downloads: 0




Saturday the 20th

Attached File  temp_2m_f162.png ( 59.93K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f168.png ( 56.04K ) Number of downloads: 0
10 Aug 2014
The August 12-14 topic http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=31812 in the American forum is based on the same systems/conditions. They only care until it leaves the US east coast. In Canada, it'll work down the St Lawrence, and through Atlantic Canada, hence the 2 extra days. There are a few rainfall maps in the US thread. Instead, here's a few maps from CMC of the event...

Attached File  I_nw_r1_EST_2014081012_042.png ( 55.98K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2014081012_054.png ( 42.34K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2014081012_066.png ( 43.96K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2014081012_078.png ( 43.17K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2014081012_090.png ( 42.26K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2014081012_102.png ( 41.23K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2014081012_114.png ( 40.81K ) Number of downloads: 0
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