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knorthern_knight
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Greater Toronto
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knorthern_knight

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5 Apr 2014
Since it covers summer+fall+winter, it doesn't fit into a neat topic. Anyhow, Weatherbell has a video that comes out approx 9:00 AM Saturday mornings, and is available to the general public. Weatherbell susbscription not required. Today's video is at http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-april-5-2014 It deals mainly with the US, but here's what I could glean for southern Canada. A summary follows...
  • he points to Jamstec models which forecast a weak El Nino this summer, dying by winter
  • Weatherbell forecast for summer
    • cool blob (-2) centred over Minnesota+Wisconsin covers Ontario+Manitoba+SE Sask
    • rest of southern Canada looks normal temps
    • precip dividing line is central Ontario; 20% or more above average to the East; approx average to the west
  • Weatherbell forecast for fall
    • cool blob (-2) centred over Great Lakes, extending SSW
    • rest of southern Canada from Central Sask east slightly below normal temps
    • southern Canada from Central Sask wast has normal temps
  • Weatherbell forecast for winter
    • cool blob (-2) centred over Golden Triangle
    • rest of southern Canada from Sask east slightly below normal temps
    • Alberta normal
    • BC, especially the coast, warm
    • Central Ontario and East, 80% or less of normal pcpn
    • ditto for BC and especially west coast
    • rest of Canada approx normal precip
17 Mar 2014
I hate to rain on your parade... or your snowbanks, but here goes. Note that the purple line labelled "32" is the surface temp freezing boundary. Maybe people don't want to be the bearer of bad news, which is why nobody else took it on.

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17 Mar 2014
http://www.kylemacritchie.com/ has, amongst other things, daily and weekly CFS prog maps for North America. Stuff like so...

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17 Feb 2014
It doesn't look too good. COBB data has over an inch of rain in Toronto, as per the "QPF" column on the far right...

CODE
StnID: cyyz    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%

Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++
140220/1500Z  75  16007KT  26.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000
140220/1800Z  78  12011KT  30.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000
140220/2100Z  81  10010KT  34.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.235
140221/0000Z  84  13008KT  35.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.480
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++
140221/0300Z  87  18013KT  38.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.210
140221/0600Z  90  19020KT  39.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.203
140221/0900Z  93  23022KT  33.3F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037
140221/1200Z  96  22023KT  28.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++


And now for the maps. Note the purple line, labelled "32" (Fahrenheit) is the melting boundary. After the warm/wet sector goes through, temperatures drop below freezing again. Slippery+icey conditions; bleagh.

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9 Dec 2013
I'm starting a thread because this has been rather rare the past few years. The current EC forecast has Pearson Airport dropping below freezing today, and staying there for a while. Highs through Sunday the 15th are forecast to remain in the minus range. I think the longest spell of sub-freezing temps here happened Dec 25, 1976 to Feb 10t, 1977. I doubt we'll get anywhere near it...That totals up to 7 + 144 + 744 + 216 + 12 = 1123 consecutive hours or over 46 consecutive days of below freezing temps. Now you know why the media was screaming about the coming ice age back then tongue.gif

BTW, the airport site is now known at "Toronto Intl A" with daily data at http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/d...13&Month=12 and hourly data at http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/h...th=12&Day=7
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