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Rank: Tornado
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Greater Toronto
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Local Time: Aug 28 2014, 09:06 AM
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10 Aug 2014
The August 12-14 topic http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=31812 in the American forum is based on the same systems/conditions. They only care until it leaves the US east coast. In Canada, it'll work down the St Lawrence, and through Atlantic Canada, hence the 2 extra days. There are a few rainfall maps in the US thread. Instead, here's a few maps from CMC of the event...

Attached File  I_nw_r1_EST_2014081012_042.png ( 55.98K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2014081012_054.png ( 42.34K ) Number of downloads: 0

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Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2014081012_078.png ( 43.17K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2014081012_090.png ( 42.26K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2014081012_102.png ( 41.23K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2014081012_114.png ( 40.81K ) Number of downloads: 0
25 Jun 2014
The web page is http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index....n&page_0=30 One of the first things I did was to turn off the annoying sound effects, and also the detector locations, which show the triangulation. This makes for a cleaner map, and allows me to listen to internet radio.
6 Jun 2014
I'm getting really starved for systems to track. sad.gif On the NAEFS EPSgrams, the CMC global model shows a precip event for Toronto and Ottawa around the 11th/12th (Wednesday/Thursday). The FIM model shows a wave/trough going through southern Ontario, up the St Lawrence, and then the Atlantic provinces. There's a thread in the US forum about the potential for severe wx in the NE around that time. It's just getting within the extreme end of CMC's range, so I have some precip map plots...

Attached File  cmc102.png ( 39.44K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  cmc108.png ( 40.61K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  cmc114.png ( 42.14K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  cmc120.png ( 41.97K ) Number of downloads: 0
18 Apr 2014
This covers spring+summer+fall (and possibly into winter) so it doesn't fit into the Spring thread. Recent CFSv2 monthly forecasts have been showing a persistent cool anomaly around Lakes Superior and Huron. The effect often stretches out to the GTA and Hamilton. The monthly progs only go through October, so it's a bit early to speculate about winter.

Assuming the prog maps below do verify, and continue into next winter, what would the side-effects be? I can think of the following...
  • obviously cooler temps for the affected areas
  • earlier freeze-up for Lakes Superior and Huron
  • shorter lake-effect-snow-season for snowbelt areas adjacent to Superior+Huron
  • earlier start to snowfall season
  • possible weakening of the "Toronto Snow Dome"
Any others that people here can think of?

Attached File  usT2mMonInd1.gif ( 30.6K ) Number of downloads: 1

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Attached File  usT2mMonInd3.gif ( 29.2K ) Number of downloads: 2

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Attached File  usT2mMonInd6.gif ( 28.96K ) Number of downloads: 1
5 Apr 2014
Since it covers summer+fall+winter, it doesn't fit into a neat topic. Anyhow, Weatherbell has a video that comes out approx 9:00 AM Saturday mornings, and is available to the general public. Weatherbell susbscription not required. Today's video is at http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-april-5-2014 It deals mainly with the US, but here's what I could glean for southern Canada. A summary follows...
  • he points to Jamstec models which forecast a weak El Nino this summer, dying by winter
  • Weatherbell forecast for summer
    • cool blob (-2) centred over Minnesota+Wisconsin covers Ontario+Manitoba+SE Sask
    • rest of southern Canada looks normal temps
    • precip dividing line is central Ontario; 20% or more above average to the East; approx average to the west
  • Weatherbell forecast for fall
    • cool blob (-2) centred over Great Lakes, extending SSW
    • rest of southern Canada from Central Sask east slightly below normal temps
    • southern Canada from Central Sask wast has normal temps
  • Weatherbell forecast for winter
    • cool blob (-2) centred over Golden Triangle
    • rest of southern Canada from Sask east slightly below normal temps
    • Alberta normal
    • BC, especially the coast, warm
    • Central Ontario and East, 80% or less of normal pcpn
    • ditto for BC and especially west coast
    • rest of Canada approx normal precip
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