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knorthern_knight
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knorthern_knight

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7 Mar 2016
The Bermuda High will be pumping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northwards to Eastern Canada. This will result in 2 or 3 pulses of precipitation, mostly rain. Since it's due to one root cause, I decided to make it one thread. I didn't want to dump umpteen maps here, so here are a few from the the beginning of the event(s), where the GFS is more reliable...

Attached File  gfs_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 109.24K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gfs_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 107.93K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gfs_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 107.93K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gfs_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 105.42K ) Number of downloads: 0
22 Feb 2016
A real storm to track, wow! smile.gif EC has put out a SWS for of southern Ontario. Here's Toronto as an example...
QUOTE
11:02 AM EST Monday 22 February 2016
Special weather statement in effect for:

City of Toronto

A major storm system is expected to affect Ontario Wednesday and Thursday.

A low pressure system developing over the Southern States will track northeast to reach Southern Ontario Wednesday and Northern Ontario Wednesday night. This storm is expected to bring rain and significant snow to some areas, along with the possibility of freezing rain.

The location of the heaviest snow and areas at risk of receiving freezing rain will depend on the track of the low, which is still uncertain at this time. Please refer to weather statements and local forecasts which will be updated with more details as the storm system evolves.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.


GFS shows rain first for Southern Ontario, followed by snow...

Attached File  gfs_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 105.19K ) Number of downloads: 4

Attached File  gfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 105.96K ) Number of downloads: 3

Attached File  gfs_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 105.4K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  gfs_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 105.08K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  gfs_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 104.48K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  gfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 103.53K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gfs_namer_090_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 106.58K ) Number of downloads: 1
25 Oct 2015
This event is already a thing on the US side of the forum http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32500 Joe Bastardi, on his freebie "Saturday Summary" has a commentary about
  • Patricia hitting Mexico's west coast
  • some remnants surviving into the Gulf of Mexico
  • the remnants re-organize in the warm Gulf of Mexico waters
  • it'll give tropical storm conditions, and dump a bunch of rain in Texas
  • move NE, merge with a trough. and cause at least minor havoc in the Great Lakes area (wind and rain)
Here are some of the early maps. As noted in the title, it lasts a few days more, hitting Atlantic Canada along the way. I'll update them as the system approaches.

Attached File  gfs_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 95.64K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  gfs_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 96.18K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gfs_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 95.8K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 94.67K ) Number of downloads: 1


And I really really hope that Myforecast.com is out to lunch as per usual, because if it's correct, Toronto is going to get washed away on Wednesday...

Attached File  glubglub.png ( 93.14K ) Number of downloads: 2
22 Sep 2015
Given that Autumn starts Sept 23rd, I figure that October discussion should be in the fall thread.

QUOTE(tml78 @ Sep 21 2015, 07:43 AM) *
Hey guys...any insight to how the beginning of October will be? Any Chance of low to mid 20's temps?

Still a ways to go, so the progs are still jumping around a bit. The NAEFS for Toronto http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/EPSgra...tml?station=YYZ shows highs in the high teens. The FIM9 is more variable. The following are the 18Z (2:00 PM EDT) prog maps for the first few days of October. This is a US product, so surface temps are in Fahrenheit.

Attached File  temp_2m_f234.png ( 58.09K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  temp_2m_f258.png ( 56.3K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f282.png ( 55.57K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f306.png ( 55.43K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f330.png ( 57.39K ) Number of downloads: 1
6 Apr 2015
It looks like a general rain event with maybe some isolated snow, and a risk of freezing rain for Eastern Canada during the 8th through 11th. Here are some prog GFS maps of the early stages. COBB forecast data will follow in the next post.

Attached File  gfs_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 91.64K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 93.55K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gfs_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 93.02K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gfs_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 91.46K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gfs_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 87.73K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  gfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif ( 91.9K ) Number of downloads: 0
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