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9 Jun 2013
Pretty sure this covers the separate event beginning in the Plains, mods can correct/delete if I'm wrong.
Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk for Tuesday...
TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S.
THIS PERIOD...WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IN BETWEEN. WITHIN THE RIDGE
HOWEVER...AN UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
VICINITY -- WHICH WILL BE A PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS CENTRAL U.S.
IMPULSE...PROVIDING AMPLE ASCENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
...SD EWD ACROSS THE SRN MN/IA VICINITY...
AS THE UPPER VORT MAX CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS VICINITY...AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS AREAS N AND E OF THE ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW -- PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NEB VICINITY THROUGH THE
DAY. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
/GIVEN BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE RIDGING/...BUT MAXIMIZED ASCENT JUST
N/E OF THE LOW AND IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN CAPPING ISSUES AND THUS CONCERNS ABOUT STORM
COVERAGE...WILL INITIATE ONLY 15%/SLIGHT RISK ATTM. STORMS MAY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
-- WITH AN MCS POSSIBLY EVOLVING AND MOVING ACROSS ERN SD/SRN MN/NRN
IA. IF THIS OCCURS...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS HAIL WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
...and going into Wednesday.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT SUN JUN 09 2013
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN BROAD/GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE CENTRAL U.S. LONG-WAVE
RIDGE SANDWICHED BETWEEN WRN CONUS AND ERN CONUS TROUGHING THROUGH
THE LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD.
DESPITE THE BROAD AGREEMENT HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT
TO INDIVIDUAL/SMALL-SCALE FEATURES PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE WRN
U.S. TROUGH AND PROGRESS ANTICYCLONICALLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. AROUND THE NRN FRINGE OF THE LONG-WAVE RIDGE.
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SUCH SMALL-SCALE FEATURES IS FORECAST TO BE
CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST DAY 4 /WED. 6-12/...WITH SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY REGION. ATTM
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT INTRODUCTION OF A 30%
EQUIVALENT THREAT AREA.
14 Apr 2013
The season is rapidly approaching, and a few forecasters are thinking this will be an active year. Guess it's time to open up the discussion.
12 Feb 2013
29 Dec 2012
The long range pattern looks to include a stormy pattern developing in the Bering Sea, leading to high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska. Ensembles are envisioning a wide swath of low pressure across much of the nation (first attached image). If a negative NAO develops, high pressure over the Atlantic could move into the Southeast, making for a Southeast ridge, which could push storms more into the MW/OV.
The last 5 consecutive runs of the GFS have shown a good storm system across the Plains/MW/GL/OV (last 2 attached images) for this timeframe, with accumulating snows in the forecast.
I'm stuck in a snow drought and grasping for straws here
27 Nov 2012
This has now been 6 consecutive runs of the GFS model displaying a (rather strong) storm system affecting either these regions or the Northeast sometime between the 10th and the 12th.
4 Panel image is yesterday's (Nov. 26) runs, the two screenshots are this morning's (Nov. 27) GFS 0z/6z runs.
16 Jun 2013 - 19:28
11 Jun 2013 - 22:52
24 May 2013 - 21:45
20 Apr 2013 - 17:33
8 Apr 2013 - 17:49
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