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Juniorrr
Rank: F5 Superstorm
19 years old
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Beavercreek, OH
Born Oct-10-1994
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Joined: 20-February 11
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Last Seen: 15th April 2014 - 07:08 PM
Local Time: Apr 18 2014, 07:15 PM
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Juniorrr

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30 Jan 2014
Models showing a more amped wave that may hit the lower OV with snow/ice (MO/AR/KY/TN etc)

Lol @ 18z NAM - possibly the furthest NW this could go so KY sitting good atm.
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20 Oct 2013
Little clipper system dropping down that can produce a mix or snow? for some areas by IL/IA/WI
If this had more colder air supplied this could have easily been a 2-4" isolated 3-5" for IL
12z GFS
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12 Oct 2013
A small wintry system will affect the upper plains(maybe upper lakes too) with some frozen stuff and rain elsewhere.
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18 Sep 2013
Nice chance of some isolated thunderstorms tonight(for some in IN) into Thursday and a line come on through Friday aftn-evening? We shall see...


HWO
QUOTE
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL
OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.
6 Aug 2013
Slight risk for Today and Tomorrow

Day 1




QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLNS NEWD INTO
THE MID AND UPR MS VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER OVER NE MB THIS PERIOD AS A
LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ON ITS SW FLANK...NOW OVER MT/ND...TRACKS ESE
WITHIN SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS
VLY/UPR GRT LKS. FARTHER S...A SEPARATE BAND OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED W
TO WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE CNTRL PLNS INTO MO AND THE LWR OH
VLY...ON NRN FRINGE OF STNRY RIDGE OVER TX AND THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...A VORT MAX WILL TRACK SLOWLY N ACROSS AZ...AHEAD
OF A LOW/TROUGH EDGING E TOWARD THE CA CST.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING ND FROM S CNTRL
CANADA...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIKELY TO BE GENERATED FROM STORMS
THAT FORM LATER TODAY...SFC FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT ADVANCES E/SE ACROSS THE
NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

POCKETS OF ENHANCED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE N CNTRL STATES...AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS FARTHER S...SHOULD SERVE AS THE MAIN CENTERS
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY WED AS MT/ND
IMPULSE CONTINUES ESEWD.

...CNTRL PLNS INTO MID/UPR MS VLY TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
MDT WNW MID-LVL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLNS WILL MAINTAIN
DEEP EML ACROSS MUCH OF SD...NEB...WRN IA...AND KS TODAY...WHERE
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
SE-ADVANCING COLD FRONT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80/. THE
GREATEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE UP TO 3000
J/KG...SHOULD OCCUR OVER CNTRL/SRN NEB AND NRN KS...S OF
MORNING STORMS IN NEB AND W OF MCS NOW WEAKENING IN MO. GIVEN DEGREE
OF BUOYANCY AND PRESENCE OF 25-30 KT 700-500 MB FLOW...SFC HEATING
COULD YIELD CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH A RISK FOR
SVR WIND AND HAIL.

FARTHER N...LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WILL BE MORE LIMITED
CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE IN ERN SD/MN.
NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF EVEN MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH
FRONTAL UPLIFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY PROGRESSIVE UPR
IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AREAS OF STORMS BY MID AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD INTO MN...IA...AND WI BY
EVE. 50 KT WLY DEEP SHEAR BENEATH AXIS OF MAIN UPR JET SUGGESTS A
GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE LOW-LVL PATTERN FURTHER
SUGGESTS THAT MULTIPLE SE-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE...WITH
ATTENDANT BOWING SEGMENTS EXTENDING A RISK FOR SVR WIND EWD INTO THE
UPR MIDWEST LATER IN THE EVE.

FARTHER SW...OTHER STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTN AND EVE
INVOF LEE TROUGH AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN WRN KS...AND
PERHAPS IN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER ERN CO. STRONG LOW-LVL BUOYANCY
AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SUSTAINED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO THAT MOVE/DEVELOP
PREFERENTIALLY E/ENE INTO MO AND THE MID-MS VLY LATER TNGT/EARLY WED
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LLJ AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT.

...OZARKS/LWR MS VLY TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN...
RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITH SFC HEATING TODAY IN
AXIS OF HIGH PW /AOA 2 INCHES/ EXTENDING SE FROM ON-GOING MCS NOW
CENTERED IN SE MO. A FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE...WITH AN
A RISK FOR WET MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.



Day 2

QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF SRN KS AND
NRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY
AND SRN GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NE MANITOBA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY
OR RETROGRADE VERY SLOWLY SWWD...MAINTAINING STRONGER BELT OF WNWLY
WINDS ALOFT FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...WHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST DRIFTS INLAND. A
VORT MAX NOW OVER CNTRL BAJA IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK FLOW...AND SHOULD
LIFT SLOWLY NEWD...REACHING THE CNTRL ROCKIES LATER WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
TRAILING PORTIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND OK WHERE
IT WILL LIKELY STALL. A LEE TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS WRN TX.

...SERN CO...NERN NM...SRN KS THROUGH NRN OK...

ENELY NEAR SFC WINDS WILL EVOLVE IN POST FRONTAL ZONE OVER KS AND
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...MAINTAINING UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS
ACROSS SRN KS INTO NRN OK BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EXIST IN POST FRONTAL
REGION...WITH STRONGEST HEATING LIKELY OCCUR IN THE DRIER AIR JUST
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER OK. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ALONG THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE WITH 2000-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE POSSIBLE. A CAP SHOULD INHIBIT SFC BASED DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY WHEN STORMS MAY INITIATE IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT AS WELL AS IN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER SERN CO AND NERN NM. THIS
REGION WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BUT WITH ELY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST NORTH OF SFC FRONT BENEATH 30-35 KT FLOW AT 500
MB SUPPORTING 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF FRONT.

...MID MS THROUGH OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER PORTIONS OF OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD IS
EXTENT OF AND PLACEMENT OF ONGOING STORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS INCLUDING AN MCS OR TWO
MAY BE IN PROGRESS FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MS
VALLEY OR POSSIBLY WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY.
STORMS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN WARM SECTOR ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING STORMS AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD
SEWD. WHILE WINDS IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK
OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION...SUFFICIENT FLOW AOA 600 MB MAY EXIST TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING
WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.
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