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30 Jan 2013
I may be jumping the gun here but the Weatherbell GFS Models are indicating some convective activity.
Starting at 12Z Feb 6th, you have warm air moving up into the OV, Mississippi River Area
By 03Z February 7th, it will look like this
Dew Points also moving up as well
The Low Pressure starts to get its act together and starts its move from Colorado through the Plains into the midwest around 16Z February 6th
Here is the Convective Cloud Cover, I started it at 12z February 6th, as this was the first image that it shows some good organization, and keeps it as it moves into the Midwest from Kansas.
Of course, there still is alot of uncertainty with it being this far out, But I thought it was worth starting the discussion to keep an eye on that system as it may be our next bout of Severe weather for the region. I will say there is not great agreement between the GFS MSLP for February 6th and what the ECMWF February 6th MSLP model indicates.
14 Apr 2012
I know theres a major event playing out this weekend but I just wanted to put this up here because discussion has apparently begun in my area for this weather system. The big reason is Louisville has a huge fireworks show and boat races, airplanes, things of that nature this coming weekend.
The louisville meteo seems to think this will be a strong system and provided these two maps for starting points
Note: I could not use his map which shows a little stronger instability due to image compatibility issues, here is twister data's, which does not show as strong of an instability level that far out. Also it showed higher temps than the twisterdata GFS model I am posting now.
So with the combination of instability, actual front coming through our area, and Temps in the 80's, its going to be a good mix for some Severe weather potential.
22 Feb 2012
Mostly a southern storm, but this consumes almost all of Kentucky and a small southern portion of Indiana
.Short Term (Tonight through Thursday night)...
Updated at 300 PM EST Feb 22 2012
Main challenge in the short-term centers around potential for severe
weather late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, as a vigorous
upper disturbance dives SE out of the Canadian Rockies, pushing a
cold front through the Ohio Valley. Limiting factor will be
instability, even with sfc temps pushing 70F on Thursday afternoon,
due to a warm nose near 850mb. There is a narrow window just before
sunset where we could realize marginal instability, if the mid-level
dry layer is eroded in time. Otherwise this is a very dynamic
system, with strong speed shear, and potentially enhanced
directional shear if the secondary sfc low develops over the
Mississippi Valley and moves ENE across Kentucky. All this adds up
to the slight risk advertised by SPC, and the main issue will be
damaging wind potential, with the best shot between 21Z Thursday and
03Z Friday. Will advertise this in the HWO, but with the marginal
nature of this event will keep the SVR mention out of the ZFP for
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012
20Z SURFACE OBS REVEAL WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHEARED OUT.
HIGHER TDS BEHIND THE ONCE EXISTING BOUNDARY HAVE MADE THEIR WAY
INTO THE SRN FA...WITH TDS FROM THE U40S TO L50S THERE...AND STILL
LINGERING MID 30S ACROSS OUR NRN TIER. WEAK FRONT/TROF AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE IS PERCHED JUST WEST OF FA. AS IT
SWEEPS THRU...IT MAY TAP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER
WKY...RESULTING IN CONVECTION. NAM HAS BEEN MOST INSISTENT ON
THIS OCCURRENCE...AND WE CANT QUITE IGNORE IT...SO WE`LL LEAVE A
SLGT CHANCE EVENING MENTION GOING FOR MAINLY THE ERN 1/2 OF THE
AFTER THAT...THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO OUR NW...AND
REACTIVATES THE WARM FRONT. WE`LL SEE WAA SHOWERS/POPS NUDGING OUR
NRN TIER BY TOMORROW AM...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WILL COME LATE
PM/EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FA. UPON SO
DOING...IT WILL HAVE AMPLE LOW LEVEL PARAMETERS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH NAM FORECAST 500-1000 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE. AS A RESULT WE
SEE WKY WITHIN SLGT RISK SVR FOR SWODY2...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE WINDOW WILL BE
NARROW...FROM ABOUT 21-22Z..TO ABOUT 02-03Z..FOR CONVECTION/SVR
CHANCES. AFTER THAT THE COLD FRONT/PASSAGE SHUTS THOSE CHANCES
DOWN. MORE LIKELY THOSE CHANCES WILL BE/REMAIN BETTER TO OUR SOUTH
again not alot, but the potential is there and shouldnt be ignored
22 Jun 2011
I took these following a cell in Jackson County Indiana yesterday. I thought I saw a funnel cloud but when I got to an open area this is the only thing I saw, was wanting a more expert opinion. It never did anything other than this.
Its kind of hard to see because I am using a camera phone but its in the middle of the picture.
heres the link to the pictures. I posted them in the June 18th/24th OV Severe thread.
30 Jan 2013 - 21:07
29 Oct 2011 - 22:02
4 Jul 2011 - 10:36
27 Jun 2011 - 11:27
27 Apr 2011 - 8:57
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