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Rank: F5 Superstorm
40 years old
UCOOP precipitation observer for the National Weather Service. Double duty weather/climate enthusiast.
Joined: 29-June 11
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Last Seen: 13th September 2016 - 09:50 PM
Local Time: Sep 26 2016, 10:39 AM
2,480 posts (1 per day)
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2 Jul 2016
The Organic Forecasting Method
Utilize initialized conditions around the globe to formulate medium and long range forecasts for the contiguous United States.
Forecast skill of upper-air and surface weather trends.
Bering Sea Rule (BSR)
East Asia Rule (EAR)
Southern Oscillation Index Delta (SOID)
Recurring Rossby Wave Train (RRWT)
31 Aug 2014
Let's begin with last years (8/1/13-7/31/14) dominant components.
iso45.png ( 33.92K ) Number of downloads: 9
Difficult to imagine that ~57 didn't show up much. The chart below shows how using the dominant harmonic can prove to be solid guidance as we know the short-term, mid-term, and long-term will all have their days in the sun so to speak.
iso44.png ( 196.69K ) Number of downloads: 7
Below is the average of each component 10-20, 30-60, and 60-90 days.
iso46.png ( 117.81K ) Number of downloads: 7
What about this coming season? 17-18 days are tops this morning (8/31/14). 74-76 days are right behind. However, through August, 58-60 days has been the most dominant. Likely to swerve in the coming weeks.
iso42.png ( 24.22K ) Number of downloads: 5
With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short-term should recover and produce the new patterns for the upcoming season. Discussing this with some others, I agree we can use the 74-76 to find the LRC and confirm with the short-term using standing wave harmonics.
But, I haven't looked at maps, anyone seeing this 58-60 or 74-76 day connection? Some suggest taking the current short-term from the current long-term for this years LRC duration. Give or take a day.
2 Aug 2016 - 11:03
18 Jul 2016 - 7:51
28 May 2016 - 9:08
22 Jan 2016 - 17:46
9 Dec 2015 - 7:58
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