Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Profile
Personal Photo
Rating
 
Options
Options
Personal Statement
OSNW3 doesn't have a personal statement currently.
Personal Info
OSNW3
Rank: F5 Superstorm
38 years old
Male
Oshkosh, WI
Born Sep-2-1976
Interests
UCOOP precipitation observer for the National Weather Service (OSNW3) & CoCoRaHS (WI-WN-4). Double duty weather/climate enthusiast and a trained Severe Weather Spotter.
Statistics
Joined: 29-June 11
Profile Views: 4,283*
Last Seen: Today, 04:20 PM
Local Time: Sep 30 2014, 04:54 PM
1,019 posts (1 per day)
Contact Information
AIM No Information
Yahoo No Information
ICQ No Information
MSN No Information
Contact Private
* Profile views updated each hour

OSNW3

Member

***


Topics
Posts
Comments
Friends
My Content
31 Aug 2014
Let's begin with last years (8/1/13-7/31/14) dominant components.

Attached File  iso45.png ( 33.92K ) Number of downloads: 5


75-79
49-51
40-42
26-26
14-15

Difficult to imagine that ~57 didn't show up much. The chart below shows how using the dominant harmonic can prove to be solid guidance as we know the short-term, mid-term, and long-term will all have their days in the sun so to speak.

Attached File  iso44.png ( 196.69K ) Number of downloads: 4


Below is the average of each component 10-20, 30-60, and 60-90 days.

Attached File  iso46.png ( 117.81K ) Number of downloads: 3


What about this coming season? 17-18 days are tops this morning (8/31/14). 74-76 days are right behind. However, through August, 58-60 days has been the most dominant. Likely to swerve in the coming weeks.

Attached File  iso42.png ( 24.22K ) Number of downloads: 5


With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short-term should recover and produce the new patterns for the upcoming season. Discussing this with some others, I agree we can use the 74-76 to find the LRC and confirm with the short-term using standing wave harmonics.

But, I haven't looked at maps, anyone seeing this 58-60 or 74-76 day connection? Some suggest taking the current short-term from the current long-term for this years LRC duration. Give or take a day. smile.gif
Last Visitors


1 Sep 2014 - 17:03


25 Apr 2014 - 19:31


7 Apr 2014 - 1:22


9 Mar 2014 - 11:36


27 Feb 2014 - 17:56

Comments
Other users have left no comments for OSNW3.

Friends
There are no friends to display.
RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 30th September 2014 - 04:54 PM