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OSNW3
Rank: F5 Superstorm
38 years old
Male
Oshkosh, WI
Born Sep-2-1976
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UCOOP precipitation observer for the National Weather Service (OSNW3) & CoCoRaHS (WI-WN-4). Double duty weather/climate enthusiast and a trained Severe Weather Spotter.
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OSNW3

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31 Aug 2014
Let's begin with last years (8/1/13-7/31/14) dominant components.

Attached File  iso45.png ( 33.92K ) Number of downloads: 5


75-79
49-51
40-42
26-26
14-15

Difficult to imagine that ~57 didn't show up much. The chart below shows how using the dominant harmonic can prove to be solid guidance as we know the short-term, mid-term, and long-term will all have their days in the sun so to speak.

Attached File  iso44.png ( 196.69K ) Number of downloads: 5


Below is the average of each component 10-20, 30-60, and 60-90 days.

Attached File  iso46.png ( 117.81K ) Number of downloads: 6


What about this coming season? 17-18 days are tops this morning (8/31/14). 74-76 days are right behind. However, through August, 58-60 days has been the most dominant. Likely to swerve in the coming weeks.

Attached File  iso42.png ( 24.22K ) Number of downloads: 5


With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short-term should recover and produce the new patterns for the upcoming season. Discussing this with some others, I agree we can use the 74-76 to find the LRC and confirm with the short-term using standing wave harmonics.

But, I haven't looked at maps, anyone seeing this 58-60 or 74-76 day connection? Some suggest taking the current short-term from the current long-term for this years LRC duration. Give or take a day. smile.gif
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RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 19th December 2014 - 04:21 AM