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Rank: F5 Superstorm
39 years old
UCOOP precipitation observer for the National Weather Service (OSNW3) & CoCoRaHS (WI-WN-4). Double duty weather/climate enthusiast and a trained Severe Weather Spotter.
Joined: 29-June 11
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Last Seen: 19th July 2016 - 09:30 PM
Local Time: Jul 23 2016, 08:08 AM
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2 Jul 2016
The Organic Forecasting Method
Utilize initialized conditions around the globe to formulate medium and long range forecasts for the contiguous United States.
Forecast skill of upper-air and surface weather trends.
Bering Sea Rule (BSR)
East Asia Rule (EAR)
Southern Oscillation Index Delta (SOID)
31 Aug 2014
Let's begin with last years (8/1/13-7/31/14) dominant components.
iso45.png ( 33.92K ) Number of downloads: 9
Difficult to imagine that ~57 didn't show up much. The chart below shows how using the dominant harmonic can prove to be solid guidance as we know the short-term, mid-term, and long-term will all have their days in the sun so to speak.
iso44.png ( 196.69K ) Number of downloads: 7
Below is the average of each component 10-20, 30-60, and 60-90 days.
iso46.png ( 117.81K ) Number of downloads: 7
What about this coming season? 17-18 days are tops this morning (8/31/14). 74-76 days are right behind. However, through August, 58-60 days has been the most dominant. Likely to swerve in the coming weeks.
iso42.png ( 24.22K ) Number of downloads: 5
With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short-term should recover and produce the new patterns for the upcoming season. Discussing this with some others, I agree we can use the 74-76 to find the LRC and confirm with the short-term using standing wave harmonics.
But, I haven't looked at maps, anyone seeing this 58-60 or 74-76 day connection? Some suggest taking the current short-term from the current long-term for this years LRC duration. Give or take a day.
18 Jul 2016 - 7:51
28 May 2016 - 9:08
22 Jan 2016 - 17:46
9 Dec 2015 - 7:58
4 Dec 2015 - 23:50
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