Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Profile
Personal Photo
Rating
 
Options
Options
Personal Statement
snowrawrsnow doesn't have a personal statement currently.
Personal Info
snowrawrsnow
Rank: Tornado
20 years old
Male
New Castle, PA
Born Aug-4-1994
Interests
No Information
Statistics
Joined: 6-July 11
Profile Views: 4,703*
Last Seen: 1st March 2014 - 07:47 PM
Local Time: Sep 3 2014, 02:01 AM
452 posts (0 per day)
Contact Information
AIM No Information
Yahoo No Information
ICQ No Information
MSN No Information
Contact Private
* Profile views updated each hour

snowrawrsnow

Member

**


Topics
Posts
Comments
Friends
My Content
8 Sep 2012
The current NHL CBA expires on September 15th, and it doesn't seem either side wants to budge. I'd really hate to see another season go down the drain, but it's almost starting to look unavoidable, and it seems like most of the talk coming from the NHLPA is more how to prepare for a lockout then avoid one. "Informal talks," have resumed, but is it a little too late with just a week left before losing games out of the season?
7 Jul 2012
Didn't see a topic yet...
Pretty INSANE RI probs...

QUOTE
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 90% is 7.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 73% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 63% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 63% is 18.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)
19 Jun 2012
I just noticed that it had been renumbered;

QUOTE
AL, 03, 2012061918, , BEST, 0, 395N, 580W, 40, 1005, TS


http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest


also that there wasn't a thread. I called it 95L because the NHC hasn't said anything about it being Chris yet.
12 May 2012






Pretty far north, I don't think it'll develop into anything. But, everything's possible.
21 Feb 2012
I hope I started this topic right, first time starting a severe weather topic. I wasn't sure to include the 22, but I figured if it is a different system it can be changed.

The SPC has a 30% hatched area out for Thursday...


As well as a strongly worded outlook;

QUOTE
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AND ERN TX INTO A
PORTION OF THE SERN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS HAVE CONVERGED TO SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO EVOLUTION
OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT...AND
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MS VALLEY AS A STRONG
UPPER JET DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...REACHING THE
SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SWLY LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SERN STATES AND OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER
EJECTION OF SRN STREAM UPPER LOW THAT WILL CUTOFF OVER NRN MEXICO
AND IS NOW SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THE NAM STILL BEING THE SLOWEST
MODEL. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY REACH SRN TX LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE PRIMARY CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
OH VALLEY OR GREAT LAKES WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN STATES.

...SERN STATES...

POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THURSDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

STRENGTHENING SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD
TRANSPORT OF MODIFYING GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S
OVER SRN AND ERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES TO NEAR 50 OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE PLUME
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT EWD AND OVERTAKE THE WRN EDGE OF
THE MOIST AXIS. MLCAPE IN THIS REGION COULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG. HOWEVER...THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
MUCH OF THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY EVENING IN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING WAVE AND STRENGTHENING
LLJ. ACTIVITY WILL EXIST WITHIN A STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AS
LLJ INCREASES TO IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH UPSCALE GROWTH
LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD
.


...OH VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH NWD EXTENT INTO
THE OH VALLEY WITH MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG LIKELY. FORCING WITHIN
FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROMOTE A LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED
WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DESPITE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY SOME THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND. LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED...BUT
AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...TX...

A FEW STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG SWRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT
INTO ERN AND SRN TX WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IN
THIS REGION WILL BE MORE CAPPED AND COVERAGE OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SRN TX WILL BE MODULATED BY TIMING OF SRN STREAM WAVE. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL.

..DIAL.. 02/21/2012




QUOTE
/DAY 4/

A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES FROM NRN FL...GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
THE DELMARVA REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING KINEMATIC FIELDS WITHIN MOIST WARM SECTOR.


Jackson, Miss. Disco for the event:
CODE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES HAS CHANGED AGAIN CONCERNING THE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR OUR CWA. SPLIT
FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH BOTH ACTIVE BRANCHES
AFFECTING OUR CWA. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT A DIGGING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO
SET THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND TORNADOES THURSDAY
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE
THURSDAY LIMITING DAYTIME CONVECTION AND HELPING TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE MID 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 60S AND PWS NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF ARE EXPECTED TO POOL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MLCAPES OF 800-1000J/KG IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF 50-60KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
250-300M2/S2 ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE TO AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS NEAR MIDNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR SOUTHEAST MOST
ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY.
Last Visitors


23 Mar 2013 - 19:35


26 Dec 2012 - 6:00


20 Nov 2012 - 20:10


26 Oct 2012 - 23:27


26 Oct 2012 - 11:46

Comments
wingsovernc
Back again this year! Happy 18th birthday! :D
4 Aug 2012 - 5:42
wingsovernc
Happy Birthday! :)
4 Aug 2011 - 10:55

Friends
There are no friends to display.
RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 3rd September 2014 - 02:01 AM