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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Champaign, Illinois
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Joined: 25-August 11
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Last Seen: 9th February 2018 - 11:54 AM
Local Time: Jun 24 2018, 06:38 PM
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17 Mar 2014
Hello all,
Sorry didn't really know where to put this, I've been kinda busy working on a little project. This is still very early preliminary information, basically I'm comparing active hurricane seasons to least active hurricane seasons, and what the preceding winters were like. The information has been baffling to say the least.

Below I have compiled a list of least hurricane seasons, with analogs, preceding that winter. The results are shown here.

Notice how very bitter winters, occurred after these lackluster hurricane seasons? Also take note, 2013-2014 was a eerily quiet season, with one of our main analogs for this winter as 1917-1918, which is shown in my data plot below. The winters include 1907, 1914, 1917, 1919.

Now, onto active hurricane seasons. We all know 2005 was a very deadly year, I was in Florida for hurricane charley, and was forced to do a mandatory evacuation. The analogs shown below paint a completely different picture for the CONUS. Active hurricane seasons include 2005, 1933, 2010, 2011, 2012, 1995.

I'm in the process of finding a link to ENSO, solar cycle and the preceding winters from both analog sets above. None the less I'm having a blast with this project guys.
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9 Feb 2014
This might be a bit premature, but with the doldrums of winter in full swing, it's time to think happy warm thoughts lol! Who would of thought after the last 2 duds winter delivered, we would be begging for mercy laugh.gif

Hot, Near Average, or Colder than normal? ENSO looks to be a weak El nino, possibly warm neutral. Coming from back to back neutral years, we will have to dig and see what the upcoming summer did, for possible analogs.

Bring in jet skiing, cookouts, fishing, and shooting guns!
13 Jul 2013
Do you guys think in our lifetime that the brutal winter of 1917-1918 or the frigid winter of 1976-1977 could be repeated in the next coming years? I have done research on the winter of 17-18 and the stories are phenomenal. That year featured a weak la Nina, coupled with a negative PDO that combo seems to be favor chilly winters. Again the same obs, are present in the winter of 1976-1977, what interests me is that both of these winters came off the heels off 3-5 extremely mild winters in the lower 48.

a new ENSO pattern is evevolving and the PDO is entering a new phase, keep in mind we have experienced 2 pretty mild winters 2011-2012, 2012-2013. Right now we are stuck in the neutral, Nina pattern from 99-03.

What everyone should keep an eye out for is the solar cycle, we hit the solar maximum for this cycle in May 2013, which was the weakest maximum in some years, solar cycle 25 is set to begin around 2017. If one examines current trends, You can see solar cycle 24, closely follows solar cycle 5. Solar cycle 5 occurred from 1798-1810 All these cycles run on 11 year averages, if your pair these with the -PDO, -QBO, no doubt we are in for interesting times.

29 Aug 2011
Well with september right around the corner..figured may as well post the triple digit temperatures expanding north! Models are showing 105 for Quincy,IL ohmy.gif

28 Aug 2011
I have done alot of reading on winters and summers in the 1980s, and have noticed quite a few similarities of the last few here in the US. Many people compared the winter of 2010-2011 to the latter part of the 1980s some breaking records from that time. This summer has been absolutely bone dry here in east central Illinois, some local farmers are saying this almost as worse than the summer of '88.

Then there is the heatwave of the summer of 1980, which again featured extremely hot/ humid air, and major drought conditions! Again eerily similar! My father actually told me stories about the winter of 1981-1982, he worked for a tow trucking company, and clearly remembers a day when the wind chill was what he recalls -50. He claimed semis were frozen on the side of the road, because diesel would freeze and the trucks would lock up.

What I thought was really interesting was, he Said the following winter of 82-83 was exceptionally mild and remembers not much snow and seasonably warm!

So what do you guys think? Midwest seen an extremely harsh winter 2010-2011. Could 2011-2012 be the no show winter? Something to think about laugh.gif

Also, didn't know where to post this, it's historical so I stuck it here
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