JDClapper doesn't have a personal statement currently.
Rank: F5 Superstorm
37 years old
Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Joined: 28-October 11
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Local Time: Feb 19 2017, 09:13 AM
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4 Feb 2017
Throwing up a hail mary on this one? It can be football type, or relgious, you choose
H5's and OFM look interesting. It may become "something", it may not, but it's showing up for several runs, let's discuss.
1st .. OFM
BSR has some activity .. some dimples .. some northern, some southern. It certainly does not appear to be eye candy to my eyes, but, there is activity.
EAR looks much more tantalizing .. some storminess could be about in the region if this correlates. You can see on the 2/12 panel, northern and souther energy then phasing on 2/13 around our region and then heading ENE offshore.
RRWT 500s look absolutely pukefest. Mega-ridge in the east.
How about some model data?
GFS has a bunch going on and timing is not right to really make much impact. However.. this is 200+ hours. So much can change, good or bad.
CMC H5 looks really interesting. Too bad it's druncle, but, it has some pieces the GFS has, just different timing.
Euro also has something in the neighborhood.
It's a total long shot... or is it? Throw up your hail mary's now. Besides, "winter is over" after the 15th... right? This is it, don't get scared.
15 Nov 2016
Long time lurker .. been watching you guys for awhile and have come to the conclusion anyone can do this.. I mean, can't do much worse.
In all seriousness .. Thanksgiving period looks active. 18z GFS was some candy (click to animate) .. CMC, Euro, NAV seem to have it, but timing differences.. oh yeah, a little BSR support never hurt no one... here we go!
18 Feb 2016
28 Mar 2015
Clipper swinging through Tuesday PM into early April Fool's AM.
Here's the 12z tracks (black is 18z GFS) .. Euro is cooler for folks south of I-80, while GFS/CMC generally keep this an I-80 and north snow potential.
At the very least, we'll have some cool/cold rain showers to deal with.
Some sparse sampling until it hits the US for the 0z runs Monday night (0z 3/31). We aren't that far away though, not sure I'm expecting significant changes from the current general idea.
12z and 18z GFS snow maps.
22 Mar 2015
This has been discussed over the past several days on the March 25-27 thread .. separating so we can concentrate on 1 event/potential in each thread.
12z GFS made another step closer to at least impacting coastal places .. see the 500/vort picture and the shift of the backside of the trough.
Eventually this happens
12z CMC is a bit faster and much further west, which it has shown over several runs now..
12z Euro resembles the GFS as a miss wide-right for this region.
12z UKMET looks very GFS like, if you compare these maps..
Verbatim, models (except CMC) says not likely. But, they weren't too hot on this past Friday either. And if I recall, the CMC caught on a bit faster this past time... 2 in a row this time?
14 Feb 2017 - 21:20
9 Feb 2017 - 1:18
6 Feb 2017 - 7:13
5 Feb 2017 - 20:30
3 Feb 2017 - 23:11
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