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JDClapper
Rank: F5 Superstorm
35 years old
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Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 560')
Born July-27-1979
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Joined: 28-October 11
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Last Seen: Yesterday, 09:35 PM
Local Time: Sep 17 2014, 05:31 AM
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JDClapper

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9 Feb 2014
Probably virga, but radar returns are in the region.



HRRR, through 9pm.

Attached Image
17 Jan 2014
Heavy snow squalls crossing the apps. Here she comes!

5 Jan 2014
Precip starting to break-out in the region near DC - PHL.

29 Dec 2013
Starting my first thread! Based on LRC and BSR, I think there is a strong likelihood of a rain event on the east coast during this period. 12/30 0z GFS supports this as well. (It was faster on the 12/29 12z run, but still there)

Some simply fascinating images below. Ok, maybe not.. but, images. This may be quite boring to track (if it verifies as rain).. but I'm really intrigued by LRC/BSR.. so giving this a shot.

GFS
Attached Image


CPA LRC .. this storm (using an ~51 cycle) shows above average mean temps and ~0.20" qpf. I should note, cycle 2 qpf has been higher than cycle 1 in most cases.

Attached Image

Finally, jdrenken's BSR comments... made on 12/10.
http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=274

Attached Image
26 Dec 2013
I suppose I'll start this up then. smile.gif Already 1.5" of snow here in CPA and coming down moderate to heavy at the moment. NO local outlets (NWS/TV) mentioned this possibility that I viewed/read the past 24-48 hours, until CTP's overnight update (below). However, while the amount is surprising me a little, the fact that it's snowing isn't.. SREF's, NAM and even RGEM forecasted this CPA banding starting 48 hours ago.

This storm looks to provide Eastern Maine and points northeast more snow as a coastal winds up.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BANDED SNOWFALL CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PA EARLY
THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT WEAK WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH LIFT IN
THE EXIT REGION OF 250 MB 130KT JET NOSING INTO S CENTRAL PA IS
HELPING TO FORCE ASCENT. CROSS SECTIONS OF FRONTOGENESIS AND
SATURATED EPV INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNSTABLE TO SLANTWISE
DISPLACEMENTS AND THAT THERE IS A SLOPED FRONTOGENETICAL REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES NUMEROUS BANDS OF LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL FROM JUST EAST OF KPBZ THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LYCOMING VALLEY WHERE SOME 25 TO 30 DBZ
ECHOES ARE EMBEDDED. COMBINATION OF HIGH RESOLUTION MESO MODELS
AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
COMMON FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LYCOMING VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE BANDING REMAINS STATIONARY OR THERE IS
TRAINING.

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY THIS MORNING AS THESE SITUATIONS
CAN TURN INTO THE "INCH OR 6" VARIETY WHEN FRONTOGENETICAL
ENHANCEMENT OF CSI SNOW BANDS IS INVOLVED. ALSO AS PREVIOUSLY
NOTED...THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAX IS ALIGNED FAVORABLY WITH
THE PREFERRED THERMAL RIBBON FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH DURING THIS
PERIOD...RESULTING MORE EFFICENT SNOW ACCUMULATION/HIGHER
SNOW:WATER RATIOS.
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4 Mar 2014 - 21:22

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RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 17th September 2014 - 04:31 AM