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DiehardFF
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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DiehardFF

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25 Feb 2014
EURO is advertising below zero temps this Friday and again next week. GFS is cold but as not cold. However, both are pointing towards a return of the Polar Vortex!!!

-5 on March 6th.
7 Apr 2013
First Thread! laugh.gif

DT :



SPC:



QUOTE
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070834
SPC AC 070834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO D5-6 FROM THE
MID/LOWER-MS VALLEY EWD TOWARDS THE S ATLANTIC COAST.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AOA 30 PERCENT BEYOND D4. DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN D2-3
OVER MODELS HANDLING OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES BECOME INCREASINGLY PROBLEMATIC DURING
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

WITH PRECEDING DAYS FEATURING ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS THAT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH SUBSEQUENT
ADVECTION OF A WRN GULF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...SETUP SHOULD
YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH EWD AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS DOWNSTREAM OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE INVOF
CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD YIELD A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
POTENTIALLY OCCURRING ON D4. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...SUBSTANTIAL
VARIATION AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY OCCURS WITH THE
HANDLING/TIMING OF THIS IMPULSE AND ESPECIALLY WITH AN UPSTREAM VORT
MAX IN THE BASE OF THE EJECTING TROUGH.

..GRAMS.. 04/07/2013




This for the Severe Wx side of the Storm. GFS/NAM have 750-1000 CAPE Values, -4 to -8 LI in some spots with 30kts - 40kts of Shear. Temps could range from the 70's to 80's with a DP of 60+.

Something to keep watch off for now...
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