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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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weather, physics and astronomy
Joined: 17-January 12
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Last Seen: 28th July 2014 - 09:27 AM
Local Time: Aug 21 2014, 03:58 PM
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12 Jun 2014
The GFS and ECMWF have been showing some instability between the 17th and 20th of June. The models disagree a bit on how many days of instability and shear there will be, as well has the strength and placement of the shear, but both the GFS and the Euro both still show instability and some weak shear as well in the region on one or possibly more than one of the relevant days, especially on the 17th, so the potential for instability and perhaps storms is still valid in this timeframe, albeit more so in the earlier part of the thread dates. Predicted CAPE and LI values range from 500-3000 J/kg, and 0 to -8 C. Together with some weak shear and instability, we could possibly have a few strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the region. And, of course, along with the instability and storms comes some heat and humidity as well, but that's another story.
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31 May 2014
The GFS is showing another potential severe weather threat between June 3rd and June 5th. Though with the 06z GFS there is barely any atmospheric instability or shear on the 4th, most runs have been consistently showing CAPE being between 500 and 2500 J/kg with LI between 0 and -8 for a large part of the region on the 3rd, and mainly south and west of southern Mass., NY, northern PA, etc... on the 5th. Now, while there isn't much shear on the 3rd (though some instability is present, though in my opinion any storms that pop up will probably be pulse-type storms), there is quite a bit of shear on the 5th, and with the front nearby, along with some instability, there could be some potentially severe storms in the region.
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8 May 2014
Models are showing some rather high temperatures and instability from the 12th of May to the 14th. May 13th seems to be the most atmospherically unstable day, with the GFS showing CAPE from 1000-2500 j/kg, and LI from -1 to -7 C, though very little shear and/or lift is present. On the 14th however, the GFS is showing CAPE from 500-1500 j/kg and LI mostly from -1 to -5 C, along with a relatively weak LLJ, moderate shear and some lift from the cold front involved with this storm. Though there shouldn't be storms as strong and numerous on the 13th when compared to possible number and strength of storms on the 14th, as any storms that pop up would probably be isolated in nature and rather weak, due to there not being as much lift and/or shear. However, on the 14th, there could be some rather strong storms given the atmospheric parameters predicted to be in place, which might be moderately conducive to thunderstorms (and possibly severe thunderstorms).

On a side note, temps could rise well into the 70s and 80s for many in the region on the 12th and 13th, and possibly even reaching 90 degrees for some places, but of course humidity will also flow in with the rising temps.

Here is the 12z GFS temp and CAPE graph for the 13th:
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4 Apr 2014
Looks like a new system comes in on the 11th, possibly bringing some severe thunderstorms along with it. The GFS is showing relatively nice parameters for thunderstorms on the 11th. CAPE mainly ranges from 250-750 j/kg, LI ranges from +2 to -2 , and shear is from 30kt up to 90kt. Looks like the region could perhaps get two severe weather events within days.
500mb bulk shear from the 12z GFS; hour 174:
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2 Apr 2014
The GFS has been consistently showing some relatively good parameters for Tuesday severe-weather wise. Though CAPE is only from 250 j/kg-750 j/kg, and LI is mostly from +1 to -1 and maybe to -2, 700-500mb shear is in the 50-90 kt range! Which could definitely cause some big thunderstorms with such values, perhaps even a few squall lines as well.
Here is the 500mb wind shear map from the 18z GFS, at hour 144:
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