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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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weather, physics and astronomy
Joined: 17-January 12
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Local Time: Apr 17 2014, 02:50 AM
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4 Apr 2014
Looks like a new system comes in on the 11th, possibly bringing some severe thunderstorms along with it. The GFS is showing relatively nice parameters for thunderstorms on the 11th. CAPE mainly ranges from 250-750 j/kg, LI ranges from +2 to -2 , and shear is from 30kt up to 90kt. Looks like the region could perhaps get two severe weather events within days.
500mb bulk shear from the 12z GFS; hour 174:
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2 Apr 2014
The GFS has been consistently showing some relatively good parameters for Tuesday severe-weather wise. Though CAPE is only from 250 j/kg-750 j/kg, and LI is mostly from +1 to -1 and maybe to -2, 700-500mb shear is in the 50-90 kt range! Which could definitely cause some big thunderstorms with such values, perhaps even a few squall lines as well.
Here is the 500mb wind shear map from the 18z GFS, at hour 144:
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25 Mar 2014
The GFS is showing some rather good parameters severe weather-wise in the Mid-Atlantic and mostly southern parts of the Northeast between the 28th and 29th of March. Now while CAPE and LI are not that good, shear and low-mid winds look pretty strong, and with the cold front pushing through there will likely be some lift as well. There's also some low level shear in parts of the region, so there may be a spin up with any storm, but with little CAPE and LI any spin up will likely be quick and weak. It also looks like a LLJ forms throughout much of the region on the 28th, so it might feed any storm(s) that pop up. On the 29th this thread mainly applies to the Mid-Atlantic, as the cold front comes through the Northeast on the 29th, which could also produce snow for some, as telejunkie noted in his thread, though this thread is mainly for severe weather associated with cold front. Here are a few images of shear and low level winds from the 12z GFS, specifically at hour 78:
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14 Jan 2014
The GFS has been consistently showing a storm around this time period. Teleconnections look rather favorable for this storm, so it could be a frozen storm, though it's still quite far out in time to make conclusions based on teleconnections alone. That said, if the GFS does verifiy, we could get some more snow in the region.

18z GFS, hours 228-240:
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17 Dec 2013
The GFS has been showing a storm around this time period for some time now. In terms of atmospheric patterns, the NAO is predicted to trend more negative up to, and around this time period, with EPO, WPO, AO, and AAO predicted to trend negative around the time period as well. PNA is forecasted to trend more negative, though not as negative as it was the past few days. If the predicted trends of the aforementioned teleconnection patterns verify, the forecasted storm could bring nice snow to many in the region.

18z GFS; hours 324-348:

(Maps from instantweathermaps.com)
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