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Rank: F5 Superstorm
27 years old
trains, weather, physics and astronomy
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Local Time: Dec 5 2013, 05:49 PM
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2 Dec 2013
The GFS has been consistently showing a storm around the time period.
The NAO and AO look to be trending more and more negative, along with forecasts showing -NAO around this time period, and some forecasts showing the AO to be well in the negative range, or at least slightly negative around this time period as well. PNA however is forecasted to be more negative, though is predicted to begin a positive trend around mid-December.
If the NAO, and AO are negative around this storm's time period, and there is only a slightly negative/+PNA, many parts of the region could get some good snow from this storm.
Here are a few maps from the 6z GFS, hours 300-324:
25 Nov 2013
The GFS has two storms around the NE/MidAtl from December 7th through December 9th. The 850mb temps during the time period of the 1st storm are forecasted to be above 0°C for a large part of the region, though that might change given that the GFS is still in it's long range. And the 850mb temps are forecasted to be above 0°C during the first few parts of the second storm, mainly from hours 300-312, and from hours 324-336, the 850mb temps are shown to be below 0°C for large part of the region, as well as coast.
18z GFS, hours 288, and 324 (storm is shown to be stronger by hour 312, but 850 temps are above 0°C):
2 Oct 2013
The GFS is showing strong low-upper level winds for a large part of the Northeast on the 7th of October, with 500mb bulk shear in the 35kt-55kt range, and 925mb-850mb bulk shear in the 25-35kt range. CAPE will be in the 500 J/kg to possibly 1000 J/kg range, and LI is forecast to be from -2C° to -4C°. Given this, a few thunderstorms might produce strong winds, and perhaps exhibit some rotation due to the low level bulk shear.
Here a couple maps from the GFS for the 7th regarding bulk shear and low level winds:
11 Aug 2013
Both the NAM and GFS show a relatively strong cold front moving through on the Tuesday, as well as an increase in CAPE LI, and a large amount of strong bulk shear. These ingredients could cause severe weather on Tuesday, as well as tomorrow, as the CAPE, LI, and bulk shear will be relatively high tomorrow as well. The SPC has put a large part of the region under a 5% risk for both days, along with a 15% risk placed for parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, which might be extended north in the next few updates.
Here are the SPC day 2 and 3 convective outlooks:
3 Aug 2013
The GFS is showing relatively high dew points in the low 70s, to perhaps mid 70s in some spots for our region on the 8th, along with a strong low level jet ranging from 45-55 kt. The 500mb bulk shear is not very strong, with speeds ranging from 30-40 kt, though the 925-700mb bulk shear is quite strong, ranging from 30-40 kt at 925mb, 30-45 kt, and 700mb bulk shear ranging from 30-40 kt. A couple tornadoes might form if the low level bulk shear on those dates will be that strong. Also, ptwats are quite high, with ptwat values of about 2 inches for quite a large part of the Mid-Atlantic, and ptwat values of about 2.3 inches for much of NJ and SE NY. However, the GFS is showing little CAPE and LI on the 8th, as a result of temps being mostly in the mid 70s for most of the day due to the clouds that are forecasted to be over the region. However, if there will be not as many clouds on the 8th, temps could reach the 80s, or perhaps even 90s. which will likely create CAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range, and LI from the -5 to -8 range.
If there will be such high CAPE and LI values on the 8th, when combined with a strong LLJ, strong bulk shear, and a rather strong cold front moving through the region, the 8th might be the highest chance of the entire severe weather season for many areas to get some strong thunderstorms, possibly even NYC. Squall lines will be likely with such conditions as well.
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