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Rank: F5 Superstorm
weather, physics and astronomy
Joined: 17-January 12
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Local Time: Mar 7 2014, 10:42 AM
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14 Jan 2014
The GFS has been consistently showing a storm around this time period. Teleconnections look rather favorable for this storm, so it could be a frozen storm, though it's still quite far out in time to make conclusions based on teleconnections alone. That said, if the GFS does verifiy, we could get some more snow in the region.
18z GFS, hours 228-240:
17 Dec 2013
The GFS has been showing a storm around this time period for some time now. In terms of atmospheric patterns, the NAO is predicted to trend more negative up to, and around this time period, with EPO, WPO, AO, and AAO predicted to trend negative around the time period as well. PNA is forecasted to trend more negative, though not as negative as it was the past few days. If the predicted trends of the aforementioned teleconnection patterns verify, the forecasted storm could bring nice snow to many in the region.
18z GFS; hours 324-348:
(Maps from instantweathermaps.com)
2 Dec 2013
The GFS has been consistently showing a storm around the time period.
The NAO and AO look to be trending more and more negative, along with forecasts showing -NAO around this time period, and some forecasts showing the AO to be well in the negative range, or at least slightly negative around this time period as well. PNA however is forecasted to be more negative, though is predicted to begin a positive trend around mid-December.
If the NAO, and AO are negative around this storm's time period, and there is only a slightly negative/+PNA, many parts of the region could get some good snow from this storm.
Here are a few maps from the 6z GFS, hours 300-324:
25 Nov 2013
The GFS has two storms around the NE/MidAtl from December 7th through December 9th. The 850mb temps during the time period of the 1st storm are forecasted to be above 0°C for a large part of the region, though that might change given that the GFS is still in it's long range. And the 850mb temps are forecasted to be above 0°C during the first few parts of the second storm, mainly from hours 300-312, and from hours 324-336, the 850mb temps are shown to be below 0°C for large part of the region, as well as coast.
18z GFS, hours 288, and 324 (storm is shown to be stronger by hour 312, but 850 temps are above 0°C):
2 Oct 2013
The GFS is showing strong low-upper level winds for a large part of the Northeast on the 7th of October, with 500mb bulk shear in the 35kt-55kt range, and 925mb-850mb bulk shear in the 25-35kt range. CAPE will be in the 500 J/kg to possibly 1000 J/kg range, and LI is forecast to be from -2C° to -4C°. Given this, a few thunderstorms might produce strong winds, and perhaps exhibit some rotation due to the low level bulk shear.
Here a couple maps from the GFS for the 7th regarding bulk shear and low level winds:
21 Dec 2013 - 5:08
11 Dec 2013 - 23:52
10 Dec 2013 - 21:14
10 Dec 2013 - 20:11
10 Dec 2013 - 9:25
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