Check Out My Blog:
Rank: F5 Superstorm
33 years old
Joined: 23-January 12
Profile Views: 14,359*
Last Seen: Today, 08:11 PM
Viewing Topic: FAQ: Forecast Model Run Schedule
Local Time: Mar 10 2014, 09:10 PM
2,927 posts (4 per day)
* Profile views updated each hour
6 Mar 2014
I am going to go out on a limb and start this thread. The potential is there for a big hit if everything comes together like some of the ensemble members are showing. Still not convinced that this will happen as the ridge axis does not look ideal but the potential is defintely skyhigh with this one. Track away!
28 Oct 2013
All models consistent on a very robust area of low pressure moving up towards the central great lakes area on halloween with a minimum central pressure between 983 and 977mb depending on which model you trust. The GFS/NAM guidance continue to stay slightly further west then the euro guidance, hence the stronger wind threat. Significant wind damage would be likely across the golden horseshoe/ottawa valley if the GFS/NAM situation unfolds, showing 80-90kt winds at 850mb. The euro is a little weaker but still produces very strong 850mb winds. Also going to see the risk of wind driven rain with this system which has the potential to cause some power outages across the region. Let the tracking begin!
GFS_3_2013102818_F84_WSPD_850_MB.png ( 193.15K ) Number of downloads: 5
NAM_221_2013102818_F84_WSPD_850_MB.png ( 197.24K ) Number of downloads: 1
f96.gif ( 95.48K ) Number of downloads: 1
20 Oct 2013
Fairly good model consistency with the impeding Lake effect outbreak coming this week. Whether its rain or snow still remains to be seen... 850mb temps will likely stay in the -3 to -7 range for much of the week with the great lake water temps in the 14-19c range. This definitely supports flakes flying in the air, with accumulation possible especially over higher terrain.
gfs_pr3_slp_t850_east_25.png ( 258.24K ) Number of downloads: 1
gfs_pr3_slp_t850_east_55.png ( 234.08K ) Number of downloads: 1
Total Snowfall on the 6z GFS:
gfs_3hr_snow_acc_east_65.png ( 104.48K ) Number of downloads: 1
cmc_snow_acc_east_41.png ( 109.32K ) Number of downloads: 1
ecmwf_t2m_snow_ne_41_1.png ( 149.78K ) Number of downloads: 3
27 Sep 2013
Thought this would be a fun idea given the fairly benign weather pattern in place currently. Basically, their will be a list of cities across canada. You must predict the amount of snowfall that will occur between Nov 1st and March 31st for the 5 locations listed. The member who gets the minimum cumulative departure will win. For example if you think Toronto will receive 100cm and they receive 90, you get a score of ten. Member with the lowest score wins. I will be tracking the scores throughout the winter as snow begins to fall....
Snowfall Forecasts in cm Valid for the following locations
AJW(St John's, NL):
Tiebreaker: YYC(Calgary, AB):
Contest closes on November 1st at 12:00 AM. Hopefully we can get a lot of participants. Good luck!
9 Sep 2013
Tomorrow could be the hottest day of the summer for Toronto/hamilton. Would fall on sept 10th which is quite incredible for this time of the year.
Latest 4km NAM lifts the warm front north and brings temps of 36-38c across the golden horseshoe. Warm front should hang around the Ottawa valley which will allow some severe t-storms to form in the area as well.
hires_t2m_max_neng_9.png ( 210.43K ) Number of downloads: 6
8 Mar 2014 - 15:23
10 Feb 2014 - 20:27
9 Feb 2014 - 22:22
29 Jan 2014 - 22:36
4 Jan 2014 - 19:49
4 Jan 2014 - 15:08
15 Dec 2013 - 19:48
14 Dec 2013 - 21:39
13 Dec 2013 - 22:21
12 Dec 2013 - 21:44
Other users have left no comments for blizzardOf96.
|Lo-Fi Version||Time is now: 10th March 2014 - 08:10 PM|