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20 Jun 2014
Thought I would get this started as I and I'm sure many of us are starting to look into next winter more closely now that summer is getting underway. Pretty clear that a moderate el nino is fairly likely going into next winter although models diverge on exactly how strong or weak it is going to be in time for winter. As a rule, the weaker and further west-based the el nino, the higher the likelyhood of cold and snowy conditions across much of Eastern Canada and the great lakes. Heres a post I wrote yesterday on the U.S forum on some of the factors I'm looking at besides ENSO.
Few comparisons I made this morning, using an ONI base state between +0.7 and +1.5c. All el nino/-QBO years on the right with nino/+QBO years on the left. We should be in a -QBO shear phase this DJF nearing the -QBO peak late winter. Note how the -QBO years tend to have a pretty strong -NAO block with lower heights surrounding the block and a -SAM/+PDO state in the means. Whether solar activity increases or decreases heading into winter will be very important as you run the risk of ending up similar to 91-92 although it's definitely not a guarantee either way.
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The PDO dataset is also pretty interesting with the positive years on the right. I am expecting the PDO to remain positive through next winter as the nino continues to gradually strengthen. This is consistent with the NMME/JAMSTEC suite's. Note how PNA and EPO ridging is stronger in the +PDO years and the state of the NPAC is completely opposite. This tends to favour areas further SE for the heavy snow's as it takes any nina component out of the pattern.
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Couple things i'll be monitoring besides solar:
1) Positioning of the NPAC warm pool. If it can retrograde, look for the storm track to want to shift further west. If it continues to shift East into a more classic +PDO horseshoe position, as i am expecting, the mid atlantic will be more favoured in terms of storm track/snow interests.
2) The warm SST's off the east coast tend to pump up a stronger SE ridge like 51-52 saw in the December-January period.
3) Keeping an eye on the positioning of the nino. Currently favouring a slightly west based nino although it could very well end up providing more basin wide like forcing.
4) We just came out of a long lasting la nina period. ONI spikes coming after at least a double nina look like this with no ENSO sorting:
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5) SLP pattern across N Siberia in october. This goes hand in hand with the SAI feedbacks.
Positive AO el nino december's at 250mb w/ Oct SLP anoms on the left. Notice the negative SLP anomaly across N Siberia:
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-AO years are completely opposite in December, both in terms of the heights pattern and October SLP setup. Keep in mind that 8 of those 10 positive AO December years continued with a +AO in January as well, so the SAI is huge. In feb, the AO state mattered little as troughiness still dominated over the northeast/great lakes. for these reason, definitely focusing more on the DJ period.
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Cuz it's never too early...
3 May 2014
Without searching online or editing, see how many Long Range/intraseasonal acronym's you can remember from the list below. When I have time, i will try to post some informal papers/info on each indice. Good Luck to everyone and may the sharpest member win!
Tropical Convective Waves
4 Apr 2014
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Looks like a heavy rain to snow situation is on the table for a swath of southern/eastern ontario and quebec. The euro and its ensembles are in decent agreement with this type of setup(similar to the NAM). The GFS and GEM have slightly warmer looks.
16 Mar 2014
12z euro looks intriguing for southern ontario with more intense EB NAO blocking and a track from pittsburgh to syracuse and off the maine coast. Brings 10-15cm for the GTA along with 15-25cm for London, goderich and areas north of windsor. The 12z GEM looks interesting as well, although the track is aimed further north and more favourable for Ottawa/montreal and central ontario.
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6 Mar 2014
I am going to go out on a limb and start this thread. The potential is there for a big hit if everything comes together like some of the ensemble members are showing. Still not convinced that this will happen as the ridge axis does not look ideal but the potential is defintely skyhigh with this one. Track away!
20 Aug 2014 - 10:41
19 Aug 2014 - 21:49
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25 May 2014 - 3:06
6 Apr 2014 - 0:41
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23 Mar 2014 - 15:23
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