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Joined: 23-January 12
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Local Time: Dec 12 2013, 05:09 AM
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28 Oct 2013
All models consistent on a very robust area of low pressure moving up towards the central great lakes area on halloween with a minimum central pressure between 983 and 977mb depending on which model you trust. The GFS/NAM guidance continue to stay slightly further west then the euro guidance, hence the stronger wind threat. Significant wind damage would be likely across the golden horseshoe/ottawa valley if the GFS/NAM situation unfolds, showing 80-90kt winds at 850mb. The euro is a little weaker but still produces very strong 850mb winds. Also going to see the risk of wind driven rain with this system which has the potential to cause some power outages across the region. Let the tracking begin!
GFS_3_2013102818_F84_WSPD_850_MB.png ( 193.15K ) Number of downloads: 5
NAM_221_2013102818_F84_WSPD_850_MB.png ( 197.24K ) Number of downloads: 1
f96.gif ( 95.48K ) Number of downloads: 1
20 Oct 2013
Fairly good model consistency with the impeding Lake effect outbreak coming this week. Whether its rain or snow still remains to be seen... 850mb temps will likely stay in the -3 to -7 range for much of the week with the great lake water temps in the 14-19c range. This definitely supports flakes flying in the air, with accumulation possible especially over higher terrain.
gfs_pr3_slp_t850_east_25.png ( 258.24K ) Number of downloads: 1
gfs_pr3_slp_t850_east_55.png ( 234.08K ) Number of downloads: 1
Total Snowfall on the 6z GFS:
gfs_3hr_snow_acc_east_65.png ( 104.48K ) Number of downloads: 1
cmc_snow_acc_east_41.png ( 109.32K ) Number of downloads: 1
ecmwf_t2m_snow_ne_41_1.png ( 149.78K ) Number of downloads: 3
27 Sep 2013
Thought this would be a fun idea given the fairly benign weather pattern in place currently. Basically, their will be a list of cities across canada. You must predict the amount of snowfall that will occur between Nov 1st and March 31st for the 5 locations listed. The member who gets the minimum cumulative departure will win. For example if you think Toronto will receive 100cm and they receive 90, you get a score of ten. Member with the lowest score wins. I will be tracking the scores throughout the winter as snow begins to fall....
Snowfall Forecasts in cm Valid for the following locations
AJW(St John's, NL):
Tiebreaker: YYC(Calgary, AB):
Contest closes on November 1st at 12:00 AM. Hopefully we can get a lot of participants. Good luck!
9 Sep 2013
Tomorrow could be the hottest day of the summer for Toronto/hamilton. Would fall on sept 10th which is quite incredible for this time of the year.
Latest 4km NAM lifts the warm front north and brings temps of 36-38c across the golden horseshoe. Warm front should hang around the Ottawa valley which will allow some severe t-storms to form in the area as well.
hires_t2m_max_neng_9.png ( 210.43K ) Number of downloads: 6
28 Aug 2013
Pretty impressive feature stationed SE of cape cod expected to head towards eastern NS and western newfoundland. Right now we have a well defined surface circulation with vorticity stacked towards 500mb.
BSyQ889CMAAowjL.png ( 691.01K ) Number of downloads: 0
Strengthening is expected as it heads over very warm water relative to normal.
e_us_coast_cdas1_anom.png ( 222.51K ) Number of downloads: 0
GFS and NAM WRF drop 2-3" of rain for eastern NS and Western NL
gfs_tprecip_ecan_25.png ( 168.1K ) Number of downloads: 0
Could see some tropical storm conditions across eastern cape breton with sustained winds up to 55kph possible.
gfs_mslp_uv10m_ecan_15.png ( 267.63K ) Number of downloads: 0
Should be fun to track!
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