jb1979 doesn't have a personal statement currently.
Rank: F5 Superstorm
Oreland, PA (NW Philly Burbs)
Joined: 3-February 12
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Viewing Topic: March 4-5 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Obs
Local Time: Mar 5 2015, 11:02 AM
2,365 posts (2 per day)
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4 Mar 2015
18 Dec 2014
A lot of talk about this storm in the Christmas Cutter thread so I figure we might as well make a separate thread for continuity's sake. The Euro day 9-10 is currently showing a cutter coming on the heels of the big storm that drives up the TN Valley straight up through New Hampshire. My rudimentary explanation of the debate here is going to be whether the blocking you now see on the GFS and Euro post Christmas storm can do enough to force this one to redevelop east. I personally like the chances on this one much better than 12/24-25. Have fun!
Blocking showing up on GFS
Euro at 192
Euro at 216
17 Mar 2014
Pretty much all guidance pointing to another cold shot with big negative departures after a too-brief warmup. There has been talk of this development in several other threads so I figure it would make sense to consolidate it here. This shot probably ensures another negative departure month for most of the area in this annoyingly cold winter. Whether this cold snap can help snow chances is a discussion for another thread. Pretty blue images below.
19 Feb 2014
I figured I would give this a shot since the threat currently shown on the Euro during this time frame was being discussed in the mid-week thread. The GFS now has a storm in this period as well but currently is modeled OTS. Decent support from Euro ENS.
Going in this storm's favor: Cold air in place, modeled high pressure, historic significance in analogous winters (94). As modeled on today's Euro this would be an extremely high impact event but still a long way out.
Edit: Hearing the always entertaining Euro control run is a flat out HECS with snowfall in feet for the cities in the MA. Hopefully it stays off of Facebook.
I would love to hear what the sorcery division has to say about this one...
And now some pictures.
12Z Euro Day 9
12Z Euro Day 10
18Z GFS (OTS)
10 Jan 2014
Some variation of storm potential has been showing up on the models and ensembles with a fairly strong storm signal. Several members have requested a topic thread to be started but I suspect are afraid to jinx it. I have no such fears. I'm at work and unable to display graphics right now but y'all know what you've been seeing so have at it below ...
For the record, I don't love this one but enough people have been talking it up on other threads that making this one made sense for consolidated conversations sake
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