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newfiebrit
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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St Johns
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Joined: 10-December 12
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newfiebrit

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1 Jul 2014
So the first named storm of the season has formed and looks like making a bee line into the region probably intensifying into a hurricane as it moves up the coast towards NS, before turning sub tropical as it moves on through the region. Latest model runs from the GGEM and GFS seem to favour it cutting NW once past NS so I think less of a concern for us in Eastern NL as will be fairly weak by then also.

Latest predictions from the NHC:

15 Apr 2014
This system has caught my eye over the past few days it seems winter wont quite hand over the reigns completely yet, early days to know where exactly it will track and who will see what but appears to enough cold air in place for a significant shot of snow just in time for Easter! A prolonged amount of freezing rain for some also appears to be a risk as well on the latest GFS. After some warmth this week and the melting of just about all the snow I think more snow on Easter weekend will be the final straw for many, how ever short lived any snow will be.
9 Apr 2014
Noticed EC rolled out a few changes to their alerting system yesterday, not really any major changes other than changing some "warnings" to "advisories", though see they have rolled out new Fog advisory...that will be used a lot here! Not sure you need to be alerted to Fog though it's not really anything that presents any imminent danger such as heavy snow or high winds etc

http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default....mp;n=D9553AB5-1
20 Mar 2014
All the models seem pretty consistent past day or so in modelling a major coastal storm next week, exact track to be decided may end up a miss though that looks unlikely, may move further West, certainly looks worth tracking for Eastern Canada and didn't want to clutter up and confuse other threads.
10 Jan 2013
Hope this is worthy of it's own thread in what is shaping up to be a major blizzard for us here particularly on the Avalon and around St Johns. Potentially the biggest storm since 2006 and if it ends towards the higher end of the predictions don't think would have seen many bigger single storms here.

The storm seems to have been consistently modeled for the past 3/4 days and a few hours before the first flakes are due to fall they remain consistent and well on track. The latest runs showing 45-75cm for St Johns/Northern Avalon combined with 80-110kmh winds, I even read just now on Ryan Snoddon (CBC Newfie weather guy) twitter that the NAM and R-GEM are in the 80-100cm range but that would seem ridiculous and should stick to the Euro/GFS more reliable for guidance.

This is the latest Euro snowfall prediction (in inches), the "bullseye" around the Northern Avalon giving us around 18-24 inches:



Will try and post some updates during and after the storm if anyone is interested, assuming still have power as I imagine could be some widespread outages.
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