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newfiebrit
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newfiebrit

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14 Oct 2014
The Canadian Hurricane Centre have just issued their first update about this storm, playing it safe about where it will track, lots of time yet before the track is nailed down:

QUOTE
WOCN31 CWHX 141745
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:00 PM ADT TUESDAY
14 OCTOBER 2014.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= NEWFOUNDLAND
=NEW= NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR HURRICANE GONZALO.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 PM ADT.

HURRICANE GONZALO EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD LATER
THIS WEEK - POTENTIAL IMPACTS OVER LAND.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==

HURRICANE GONZALO INTENSIFIED QUICKLY THIS PAST WEEKEND AND IS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. IT IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY-3 INTENSITY THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
WELL INTO THE SUBTROPICS WILL GUIDE THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD NEAR
BERMUDA, POTENTIALLY DRAWING MOISTURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND ON FRIDAY. THE CENTRE OF THE STORM MAY TRACK ANYWHERE
FROM JUST EAST OF CAPE BRETON TO WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE GRAND BANKS
- WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY A 600-KM SPAN OF UNCERTAINTY. TIMING OF THE
STORM'S POSSIBLE IMPACT OVER LAND OR CLOSEST OFFSHORE APPROACH WILL
BE IN THE LATE FRIDAY TO LATE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WILL LIKELY BEGIN REGULAR BULLETINS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST AFFECT
OUR OFFSHORE MARINE DISTRICT.

VISIT WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/FOGARTY


Current forecast track:



Great name for a storm lol! First time it's ever been used I believe after one of the previous "G's" was retired.
1 Jul 2014
So the first named storm of the season has formed and looks like making a bee line into the region probably intensifying into a hurricane as it moves up the coast towards NS, before turning sub tropical as it moves on through the region. Latest model runs from the GGEM and GFS seem to favour it cutting NW once past NS so I think less of a concern for us in Eastern NL as will be fairly weak by then also.

Latest predictions from the NHC:

15 Apr 2014
This system has caught my eye over the past few days it seems winter wont quite hand over the reigns completely yet, early days to know where exactly it will track and who will see what but appears to enough cold air in place for a significant shot of snow just in time for Easter! A prolonged amount of freezing rain for some also appears to be a risk as well on the latest GFS. After some warmth this week and the melting of just about all the snow I think more snow on Easter weekend will be the final straw for many, how ever short lived any snow will be.
9 Apr 2014
Noticed EC rolled out a few changes to their alerting system yesterday, not really any major changes other than changing some "warnings" to "advisories", though see they have rolled out new Fog advisory...that will be used a lot here! Not sure you need to be alerted to Fog though it's not really anything that presents any imminent danger such as heavy snow or high winds etc

http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default....mp;n=D9553AB5-1
20 Mar 2014
All the models seem pretty consistent past day or so in modelling a major coastal storm next week, exact track to be decided may end up a miss though that looks unlikely, may move further West, certainly looks worth tracking for Eastern Canada and didn't want to clutter up and confuse other threads.
Last Visitors


29 Apr 2014 - 19:12
PGM


15 Apr 2014 - 18:26


31 Mar 2014 - 17:02


23 Mar 2014 - 22:28


23 Mar 2014 - 15:38

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