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Lake effect
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Lake effect



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3 Dec 2016
Thought I would create this thread since the LES stuff mixed in with each storm can be distracting for the storm followers. There are at least 3 possible LES outbreaks in the offing over the next two weeks based on current forecasts.

The first one starting after the mid week "storm" and set to be a multi day event lasting from Thursday through saturday, is the one looking most likely at the moment.Too early still to say who will get hit, but could be a number of areas:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png ( 202.88K ) Number of downloads: 0

There are a few more in the following week, which are obviously too far off to say for any certainty at the moment, but given the look of the ensembles for this period it is likely there will be one or two more in this time frame, so thought to best to lump them in here rather than have multiple threads...if seperate threads work better, let's do that instead.

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28 Jul 2016
Thought I'd give this a thread of its own as it certainly has the potential to be the hottest period of weather for a number of years with the GFS consistantly predicting temps close to 100F on Thursday 4th for a number of locales in southern and central Ontario before a very welcome cool down. There will surely be a number of daily records set at the least.

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23 Feb 2015
Might as well get this one going. My gut feeling is that this will get suppressed or pushed further south as so many storms have this winter, but it would be nice if we had one last hoorah with the great base we in the East all have in place.

First the 06Z GFS OP eye candy:

Attached File  image.jpg ( 178.51K ) Number of downloads: 11

and the 06Z GFS ensemble, which looks to have some reasonable consistancy about it:

Attached File  image.jpg ( 750.88K ) Number of downloads: 3

and finally the 00Z euro OP which is consistant with the GFS to some extent:

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20 Dec 2014
The Euro is looking more positive on this one...not sure what the amounts are looking like, and the track has changed a lot, but maybe worth watching on its own rather than getting caught up in the cloud of negativity that is the Christmas storm! (all caveats about being OP output apply smile.gif ):
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By Contrast the GFS (I know) has a more westerly track:

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12 Feb 2014
Yesterday this was supposed to be dumping 25 cms of snow across southern Ontario, today it's 15mm rain, either way something has been in the models for a few days now, so should be worth tracking.Attached File  image.jpg ( 170.33K ) Number of downloads: 2
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