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Lake effect
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Lake effect



My Content
6 Feb 2018
This has been in the models for a few days. No agreement as to exact intensity and track just yet, but all are showing something, especially overnight Saturday into Sunday. The GFS is a long drawn out light snow event, the Euro has two waves, with the second one very productive for north of the 401, and the CMC has a similar look.


1st wave

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2nd wave

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NAM not really into range yet, but showing it lurking.

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6 Feb 2018
With meteorological spring only a few weeks away, and with the ensembles trending above normal, and the early seasonal outlooks calling for an early warm up, thought it was worth starting this thread. It won't be long before snow lovers go back into hibernation, and we start getting excited about cold fronts bringing banging storms and tornado risk...then hopefully long spells of warmth. Having said all that, the CFS is calling for a cool spring, with slow warm up. Who knows:

500mb heights

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2m temps

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Attached File  cfs_mon_01_T2ma_us_2.png ( 83.82K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  cfs_mon_01_T2ma_us_3.png ( 83.73K ) Number of downloads: 0
30 Jan 2018
Thought I would create one thread for the multiple minor weather outbreaks that will be coming in this extended cold phase. Big events like storms, extended major LES outbreaks, or clippers >10cms maybe still deserve their own thread.

Firstly, looking at the Euro weeklies, this cold spell will last at least until the latter half of february. In the first half, at least there will be a number of small clippers and LES outbreaks. The first will begin on thursday after the clipper. The winds swing to WNW, and will drive a number of bands through the region, with minor accumulations. then they fix more NW, Thursday midnight, then NNW during Friday, then back to NW as they moderate before the next clipper system.


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Predictions from midday Thursday to saturday morning - some areas aligned to NW to SE will get two hits:

Red - 20-40cms

Green - 10-30cms

Black - trace - 10cms

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Attached File(s)
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7 Jan 2018
18Z GFS giving over 40cms for the GHTA, Ottawa and points East.

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Attached File  gfs_asnow_secan_29.png ( 127.9K ) Number of downloads: 4
15 Dec 2017
Might as well get this one started as it has been in the models all week, and will determine what the landscape looks like for Christmas, (and whether I will be spending Christmas here or in the UK!). It has been flip-flopping between mostly snow, to a messy mix. It now seems to be starting as rain, with a switch over giving varying amounts of snow, but still lots of time to run on this.

06z OP GFS:

hr 168

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hr 180

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hr 192
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The East

Attached File  NF_map.png ( 159.23K ) Number of downloads: 1

snow depth change

Attached File  snow_depth_change.png ( 148.38K ) Number of downloads: 10

GFS ensembles

Attached File  ooZ_15th_ensembles.gif ( 128.25K ) Number of downloads: 3

mean GFS ensemble

Attached File  GFS_ensemble_mean.png ( 114.06K ) Number of downloads: 1

Euro ensemble

Attached File  ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png ( 121.92K ) Number of downloads: 3
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