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Lake effect
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Lake effect

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19 Jan 2017
After a pretty rough ride for much of January, it looks like the forecasted change in pattern is pretty much baked in now, and after an interesting looking storm mid-week next week, it looks as though there will be a sustained period of a maybe about a week with a NW flow of air bringing multiple rounds of LES and the odd clipper. The change will be most welcome, and since the lakes will be open for a considerable while longer, and the winds will be very cold, we could see some great falls of snow. Next Thursday and Friday look very promising round these parts, but of course, very early doors, so much could change in terms of areas that will be hit:

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1 Jan 2017
Thought I would kick this one off. This looks like a prolonged event with the potential for some very large accumulations (70cms+). Not nailed down yet as each run sees the winds align differently. Initially looked to just be confined to cottage country, but latest GFS shows more NW flow to start with. Could be the biggest event of the season for some parts of the snow belt.

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8 Dec 2016
Thought I would set this thread up to focus all discussion/whinging/hope/pessimism for the big day here. It is most likely my last Christmas in Canada, so I want it to be white. I will be disappointed if it isn't...period, and I know there are others who feel an emotional attachment to looking out of your window on the morning of Dec 25th and seeing the whole deep and crisp and even thing.

Wish casting, bad tempered tirades etc are allowed smile.gif

Here is my first thought. Initially it looked as though the period coming into Christmas would see a warm up, recent guidance says otherwise, and the GFS has finally got rid of the GLC for the 22nd. In fact, the GEFS is for a maintaining of the cold conditions right up until Christmas Eve, and GFS OP run, which is of course total fantasy range at this stage has a tantalising proposition. Hopefully by Monday we will have some firmed up guidance from the weeklies, and other ensemble data. If they aren't good, feel free to behave like a spoiled child who has had their favourite toy taken away from them...I know I will. Just keep it here, not the winter thread (if anyone dissaproves of this, say so now).

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3 Dec 2016
Thought I would create this thread since the LES stuff mixed in with each storm can be distracting for the storm followers. There are at least 3 possible LES outbreaks in the offing over the next two weeks based on current forecasts.

The first one starting after the mid week "storm" and set to be a multi day event lasting from Thursday through saturday, is the one looking most likely at the moment.Too early still to say who will get hit, but could be a number of areas:

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There are a few more in the following week, which are obviously too far off to say for any certainty at the moment, but given the look of the ensembles for this period it is likely there will be one or two more in this time frame, so thought to best to lump them in here rather than have multiple threads...if seperate threads work better, let's do that instead.

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28 Jul 2016
Thought I'd give this a thread of its own as it certainly has the potential to be the hottest period of weather for a number of years with the GFS consistantly predicting temps close to 100F on Thursday 4th for a number of locales in southern and central Ontario before a very welcome cool down. There will surely be a number of daily records set at the least.

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