Possible thunderstorms SW Ontario Feb 28-March 1

Another moisture-laden system moving into the region tonight. Models indicating more t-storm potential for the SW region with lots of rain for most areas.

Quick scan of some models.


HRRR valid for 2am



NAM 3k



HRDPS for Wed morning



SPC convective risks

Winter 2015-2016

It's almost that time again.... winter!
Post your forecasts, thoughts and hopes for the upcoming season.

A few long range forecasts to digest:

http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/n...anuary-february

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...review/51471589

The Weather Channel article really simplifies things down to the 2 main factors that will impact this season: El Nino, and Atlantic blocking potential.
If blocking is weak or doesn't occur, this could be a sloppy winter for most of us.

Summer 2015

Accuweather has released their summer forecast for 2015.

Have a look, and add your thoughts/observations


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...k-2015/47335309

Feb 22-23 Eastern Canada Winter Storm

Models are showing a storm somewhere in the Eastern part of North America over the weekend, although with quite a spread of possible tracks at the moment.
DGEX seems furthest south, while the GEM seems furthest NW.

12z UKIE





12z CMC snowfall by Feb 22



12z GFS total precipitation



06z DGEX



Brett's initial map: