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MaineJay
Rank: F5 Superstorm
Age Unknown
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25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Birthday Unknown
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Joined: 15-February 13
Profile Views: 29,957*
Last Seen: Yesterday, 07:12 PM
Local Time: Jul 7 2015, 04:56 AM
3,294 posts (4 per day)
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MaineJay

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2 Jul 2015
Hoping everyone has a fun and safe holiday weekend! The weather is shaping up to be rather pleasant up here. Oh, and by pleasant I mean 70s, maybe low 80s, with relatively low humidity. I'm not one who enjoys the HHH kinda weather. smile.gif

GYX discussion

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT TWO TO SEVEN DAYS LOOK MOSTLY PRECIPITATION FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ON SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE BUT INFLUENCES THE
WEATHER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUPPLYING SUNNY SKIES AND A
SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THIS FEATURE.

BY THAT NIGHT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH SHARPENS ON SUNDAY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. STILL THE SHOWERS WILL
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS GO AND SHOULD
EXIT THE AREA BY THE EVENING.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

Some 2/0z model output

ECMWF Hr 48
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72
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NAM hr 48
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72
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http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html
22 May 2015
Thought I'd open a thread for the summer-like conditions that look to set up shop. I'll adjust dates as needed, but looks like the heat begins to build on Monday, and lingers through the works week for many.

Cue "Summer" by War

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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gSQAlfyaKyc

3-7 day mean min temps
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3-7 day mean max temps
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http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml

Hazards days 3-7
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8-14
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/


Extended disco
QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAY 25 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 29 2015

...OVERVIEW...
THE LOWER 48 WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN A TRANSITION PERIOD
BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 --- AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ARE TEMPORARILY ALTERED AND INFLUENCED BY A SERIES OF UNRELATED
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES. IN THE WEST---THE RIDGE IS INFLUENCED BY
A DEEP TROUGH MIGRATING FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF ALASKA. AND IN THE EAST--- A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ---
ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC--- MIGRATES INTO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIA.


...MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE 21/12Z GFS/ECMWF MAINTAIN A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE---AND BOTH SUPPORT THE GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE APPALACHIANS.
LIKEWISE---THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
FROM FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
. THE PAST TWO OR THREE WPC
FORECAST CYCLES HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED AN ECENS/GEFS BLEND AND
COULD NOT FIND FAULT IN CONTINUING THIS TRAIN OF THOUGHT THIS
MORNING.

...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 --- THE PATTERN IS IN A BRIEF TRANSITION AND THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA --- UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE... AND EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UNUSUALLY-ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AXIS BETWEEN 20N-30N.

IN THE MIDWEST AND EAST --- THE CHALLENGE IS WITH TRAJECTORY AND
DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATION (DAYS 4-6) FROM THE PLAINS TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THEN CONSOLIDATION OF A COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE CYCLONE MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES-OHIO
VALLEY AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND THE FRONT'S ABILITY TO TEMPER THE HEAT/HUMIDITY
UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE. ECMWF GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE A
GOOD DEAL WARMER THAN THE GFS --- AND LOCAL/REGIONAL FORECASTER
PREFERENCES MAY ADD VALUE HERE.


IN THE WEST---THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
CONSOLIDATES ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. AND TO COMPLICATE MATTERS --- THE
PERSISTENCE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IN THE EAST PAC --- ALONG 140W
BETWEEN 20N AND 40N WILL BE EMBEDDED WITH CUTOFF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY---ALLOWING A SECOND ENTRY POINT FOR MOISTURE TO MIGRATE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS AND 'FEEL' ARE EXPECTED BENEATH THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST.


FOR THE PLAINS AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
--- AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MID-LEVEL
ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE GREAT
BASIN. A CONSOLIDATED SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE
INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND AND WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES THE APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.

UNSETTLED IN THE WEST...WITH A COOLER...ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT
EXPECTED TO DIRECT UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO WEST-FACING AND
SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES.

VOJTESAK

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd
15 May 2015
Hope this thread is copacetic with the mods.

Grr, apologies, sometimes the attachment don't attach

As rain has been hard to come by, and not a whole lot on the horizon, save the thread started by UTS which doesn't appear to be a "drought buster" at this point. The last widespread rain was around April 21, hence the 22nd as the start date.

Things aren't dire by any means, but I thought it was worth making a thread to monitor the situation.
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QUOTE
The Northeast
Warm conditions dominated the region this week, helping to finally bring spring conditions to the area. Temperatures were generally at least 4 degrees above normal, with portions of New York, Pennsylvania and western New England being 12-16 degrees above normal. Overall, dry conditions dominated the region, with only some of the northern extent of the region recording up to 1.50 inches of precipitation. Changes made this week included D0 being expanded across all of New England and southeastern Pennsylvania. D0 was also expanded across northern Maryland and northern New Jersey. While spring has been off to a slow start, the dryness is starting to develop into impacts that are short-term in nature while water supply is in good shape.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

WPC 7 day QPF forecast
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http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

GFS over the next 240 hours has a large portion of the region receiving < 1"
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CMC give a goose egg to eastern Massachusetts over the next 10 days.
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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...=0&ypos=117

Percent of normal precip last 30 days

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Percent of normal precip last 90 days
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Departure last 90 days
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http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/inde...p;daterange=30d
3 May 2015
Hope that the mods are fine with this, and folks will participate, even just to vote. About 20,000 to go.
Attached File  Screenshot_2015_05_03_09_38_50.png ( 169.56K ) Number of downloads: 0


Ok, first of all I'm not even sure I'll be able to figure out who it is, especially if it occurs during a flurry of posts. But I'm willing to try, and perhaps even a moderator could help us out. For fun I'll set a poll up too, with some of the more consistent posters.

I'm going with Undertakerson on November 17, 2015


I set up a poll, sorry if anyone feels excluded, I did my best to get consistent posters in various regions. (I took some liberties) I'll try to adjust and amend the choices as necessary. I'm not really expecting anyone to play along, but with the 2,000,000 milestone nearing, I thought it'd be fun. As I said, I'm open to alterations, it wasn't easy to come up with the list. I know that you can vote in all 5, but they only allowed 10 choices per question, so I had to create the regions to maximize the choices, so please just vote for one. Total. smile.gif Thanks!
Edit: I guess you have to vote in all 5, that's fine, though. smile.gif

I included a choice in the international for "field" for any names not listed n a poll, but as I get write-ins, I'll adjust.
10 Apr 2015
I'm likely a fool for opening this thread, so any insults and criticisms that come my way, are expected and well understood. smile.gif but I like having something interesting to talk about.

Euro has been advertised an interesting system in this time frame.

10/12z ECMWF Hr 216
Attached File  f216__1_.gif ( 103.79K ) Number of downloads: 99

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/tr24f216.php

10/12z ECMWF ensembles hr 216 H5
Attached File  get_legacy_plot_web248_21afb3424b395e92cb7f1b5bc9f473fd_M3eibW.gif ( 127.92K ) Number of downloads: 99


MSLP
Attached File  get_legacy_plot_web248_21afb3424b395e92cb7f1b5bc9f473fd_HJB1IN.gif ( 128.27K ) Number of downloads: 77

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/m...;parameter=MSLP

10/12z GFS ensembles hr 204, timing differences, but all seem very troughy
510/552
Attached File  gefs_spag_namer_204_500_510_552_ht__1_.gif ( 50.71K ) Number of downloads: 86

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=204...e=&ps=model

GFS reforecast teleconnection forecasts
Attached File  Screenshot_2015_04_10_18_31_01_1.png ( 103.4K ) Number of downloads: 81


ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/refo...conn/4panel.png
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