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MaineJay
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25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
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MaineJay

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27 Apr 2016
After seeing most of the 4.75" that fell yesterday fall between 10 am and 2 pm, I'm not taking any solution off the table. smile.gif 2" survived the night.

Alright, I told myself last night if the EURO held serve I'd start a thread. I chose the third specifically as there could be two storms close together, or one. Depending on the model and run time. Edit: changed to 2-3rd.

Attached Image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/wv.jpg

I believe the situation can be traced back to the two features circled in red. One is coming ashore California currently, and will form a four corners low. The second piece south of the Aleutian island hishits the CONUS Friday into Saturday. How they these two interact has seems to be a sensitive point for the models.

Fix
QUOTE
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE EXPECTED.

HEMISPHERIC 500 MB PATTERN FEATURES A BREAKDOWN OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NRN ATLANTIC...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
REF REX BLOCKING UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR GENERALLY QUIET WX...BUT COOLER...WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND.
AS THE REX BLOCK TO OUR WEST TRANSITIONS TO A RIDGE...MAY SEE A
TROUGHING DEVELOP OVER ERN NOAM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SENSIBLE WX WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THRU THE WEEKEND AS MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. SEVERAL WAVES PASS
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THEY STAY WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND KEEP THE CWA DRY INTO SUNDAY. COULD SEE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT EURO/GFS
DISAGREE ON WHEN AND WHERE...AND GFS ENSEMBLE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WHILE EURO RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS POOR AS WELL...SO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

AS STATED TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FOR FRI AND SAT...BUT SHOULD GET CLOSE TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MON/TUE REMAIN QUESTIONABLE DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH COASTAL
LOW...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO SKEW NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY WILL
SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND HIGHS 50 TO
60...BUT WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW THE COAST WILL CLOSER TO 50 THAN
60. SAT AND SUN WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 50S N TO LOW 60S
S...AND OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

ECMWF
Attached Image

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html#picture

UKie
Attached Image

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur....date_type=dateo

GFS seems to allow less of the first piece of energy escape, and focuses on the second ejection from the desert southwest.
Attached Image


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...=0&ypos=141
25 Apr 2016
Interesting system moves through tomorrow. I've been watching the possibility for some late season snow, but didn't want to start a thread for just that. With the mid Atlantic and parts of southern New England having the possibility for severe weather, I figure that'll be what most focus on. Hope folks don't mind some potentially snowy posts. tongue.gif

Will start with the SPC risk area
Attached Image


QUOTE
OH VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK E/SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/WED. THIS WILL BRING A BELT OF 45+ KT
MIDLEVEL W/NW FLOW ACROSS THE MARGINAL RISK AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. SOME CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED...WHICH MAY LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION...BUT CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS. SOME STRONG WINDS
AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Man it's been dry up here. Red flags warnings, again today, but maybe snow tomorrow! Dropped below freezing this morning, this speaks to the arid nature of the air masses, and while certainly increasing the fire potential, it also increases wet bulb potential.

I have been keeping an eye on this, didn't really believe it, but kinda have to respect the possibility.

GYX even mentions a "fluff factor" laugh.gif but its it's true, ratios are not solely based on temperatures.

QUOTE
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST VERY WARM DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT
LEAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. FOR THE
COAST AND INLAND AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS. NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP COOLER AIR
BANKED IN ACROSS THE GREENS AND WHITES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE MID 40S TODAY. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-20 MPH
RANGE...AND THESE MARGINAL WINDS COMBINED WITH CRITICAL RH VALUES
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ESCALATED FIRE DANGER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MARCHES TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM STAYS
MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND TRAVELS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INITIALLY
WE WILL SEE RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE IT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH HEADWAY UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION DOES ARRIVE IT WILL COME
IN AS A WEDGE...KEEPING AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM PITTSBURG NH
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO BAR HARBOR ME DRY AND COOLER...WHILE SOUTH OF
THIS LINE PRECIPITATION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH NOT TOO
WARM) WILL PREVAIL.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB IN THE DRY AIRMASS...AND IN A
CRUEL TURN OF EVENTS ALLOW RAIN TO TURN TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE. SEVERAL MODELS
POINT TO A 2-4" SNOWFALL...WHICH IS NOTABLE ON THE HEELS OF A RED
FLAG DAY. THERE WILL BE A FLUFF FACTOR AND HAVE KEPT AN AVERAGE
OF 3" IN THE GRIDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
NORTH...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER AND NO
PRECIPITATION... TO THE MID 30S SOU
TH UNDER CLOUD COVER.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTH TO THE MID 40S NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
BACK TO MOSTLY RAIN ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER SPOTS WILL HOLD ONTO SNOW
LONGER. AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND END OVER
THE REGION.



Totals
Attached Image

http://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter

4km NAM
Attached Image


RGEM
Attached Image


ARW

Attached Image
7 Apr 2016
Figured I'd make a place for today's system. Looking like a soaker up here, coastal flooding issues, high winds. You know, spring weather. smile.gif

48hr WPC QPF
Attached Image


Excessive rain discussion, don't always see these.
QUOTE
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S RKD 20 ESE PSM 15 W SFZ BDL PSF 10 ENE RUT HIE 50 NE BML
15 NNW GNR 45 N MLT 15 W HUL 30 E MLT 15 N BHB 15 S RKD.


...MAINE/SOUTHERN VT AND NH/WESTERN MA...

HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WHICH HAS BEEN ADVERTISED SINCE THE DAY 3 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK. THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE OUTLINED AREA CAN
EXPECT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE LLJ INCREASES TO OVER 80
KNOTS OFFSHORE OF MAINE BY 08/0300Z. MODELS SHOW THE 1 INCH PWAT
CONTOUR NEARING DOWNEAST MAINE WHICH WOULD RANK WELL ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE BASED ON THE SPC CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST BUT THE AMPLE DYNAMICS SHOULD MORE
THAN MAKE UP FOR THE WEAKER BUOYANCY PROFILES. WITH THAT
SAID...HOURLY RATES SHOULD STRUGGLE TO EXCEED AN INCH WHICH IS THE
CURRENT FFG VALUE. HOWEVER...THE 3-HOUR RATES COULD APPROACH OR
REACH 1.50 INCHES WHICH WOULD LOCALLY EXCEED THE GUIDANCE VALUES.
THAT LED TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK ON
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.

TO THE SOUTH...WHILE FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS
SOUTHERN MAINE...A DISCERNIBLE SNOWPACK IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISSUES AS THE MILD MARITIME AIR COUPLED WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT MELTING. PLENTY OF LIQUID
EXISTS IN THE SNOWPACK WITH 0.50 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT BEING SUGGESTED ON THE NOAA NOHRSC SITE. FELT IT WAS
PRUDENT TO EXTEND THIS AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT RISK DOWN INTO THIS
REGION OF ENHANCED SNOW COVER.


RUBIN-OSTER


QPFPMD
QUOTE
DAY 1...

...EASTERN U.S...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FEATURED ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A
BROAD NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY ENCOMPASSING THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY. BASED ON EARLY APRIL CLIMATOLOGY...THE
500-MB HEIGHT DEPARTURES ARE AT LEAST 2 SIGMA BELOW AVERAGE.
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPORT
COURTESY OF A PRONOUNCED LLJ WITH WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. FAVORABLE UPPER JET SUPPORT COUPLED WITH
VIGOROUS LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE EAST COAST

TODAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS UPPER NEW
ENGLAND AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP TO OVER 80 KNOTS ONCE THE GRADIENT
FURTHER TIGHTENS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
VERY ORGANIZED AXIS OF RAINFALL AS VERTICAL MOTIONS INCREASE
MARKEDLY...PARTICULARLY IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MAXIMA IN OMEGAS. WHILE NOT DIRECTLY AFFECTING
THE CONUS...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SET UP
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO THE NORTH/WEST OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH MONTREAL THIS EVENING.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FROM
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THE LATEST FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 12Z ECMWF/18Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE
BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL WHILE DISMISSING THE QUICKER 00Z/18Z GFS AND
SLOWER 00Z NAM SOLUTIONS. ADDITIONALLY...FAVORED USE OF THE 00Z
HRW-ARW MODEL FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TO CAPTURE
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION.



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

GYX
QUOTE
THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A POTPOURRI OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER. WE HAD SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF 50 KTS OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING THRU THE AREA WITH THE WARM FRONT. WE
HAVE NOW WORKED INTO THE WARM SECTOR...ALOFT ANYWAY...WITH
GENERALLY LITTLE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WARM
ADVECTION FLOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POP THRU
MORNING...AS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THRU THE DAY THOUGH. LOW PRES WILL
CONTINUE THRU SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EDGE
EWD INTO THE REGION. ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE FRONT...A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST NAEFS FORECAST IS FOR WIND
SPEED ANOMALIES TO INCREASE OVER 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. ONE THING THIS IS SURE TO DO IS FORCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES
FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOUTHERLY FACING SLOPES WILL SEE
THE GREATEST ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH UP TO 2 PLUS INCHES.
OTHERWISE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED S OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...AS AROUND 2
INCHES OF QPF WILL START TO BRING SOME FLASHIER RIVERS CLOSER TO
FLOOD STAGE.


A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT IS DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH OF THAT JET
MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COLD
WATER IS A GREAT RECIPE FOR A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...AND
LESS WIND AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL JET AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW IN ALTITUDE...SO I
FEEL THAT IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. GIVEN THAT ANGLE IS
MORE SOUTHERLY THAN SOUTHEASTERLY...I FEEL THAT THE MIDCOAST WILL
BE MORE PRONE TO HIGHER WINDS THIS TIME AROUND THAN PWM SWD.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...WITH NAM MIXING TO AROUND
40 TO 45 KTS FOR COASTAL SWRN ME. SEACOAST NH WILL BE GUSTY...BUT
THERE ISN/T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 40 PLUS KT GUSTS. FOR THE
MIDCOAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND 00Z...THE CORE OF THE JET PASSES
OVERHEAD. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 50 KT WIND
GUST POTENTIAL...AS DO HRRR FORECASTS. WITH HEAVY PRECIP IN THE
AREA THAT ONLY ADDS TO THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE
MIDCOAST COASTAL ZONES...WITH A WIND ADVISORY INLAND FROM THERE. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR AREAS FROM PWM ON S TO THE
NH BORDER.

FINALLY TEMPS. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING WILL
PREVENT A SHARP WARM UP ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GRADUALLY THOSE WINDS
ERODE THE COLDER SURFACE AIR AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER MIX OUT LOW LEVELS
AND KEEP THINGS MILD THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING
OVERNIGHT. TEMP TRENDS ARE NON-DIURNAL IN THE GRIDS.

&&

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
1 Apr 2016
My attempt to keep things organized. Talk of clipper #1 can take place here.

Euro Hr 24
Attached Image

48
Attached Image


UKie
Attached Image


QPFHSD
QUOTE
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
334 PM EDT FRI APR 01 2016

VALID 00Z SAT APR 02 2016 - 00Z TUE APR 05 2016


DAYS 1-3...

...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

WINTER MAKES A COMEBACK IN THE UPPER LAKES AND NORTHEAST/NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE WINTER TOTAL SNOWFALL BARELY FELL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW YORK. TWO SUCCESSIVE WEATHER
SYSTEMS COULD DOUBLE THE WINTER SNOWFALL AT ALBANY NY...WHERE
SEASONAL TOTALS TO DATE ARE A PALTRY 10.5 INCHES.

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CROSSING MICHIGAN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK BEFORE PASSING EAST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY NARROW
BAND OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THIS SMALL BUT POTENT
SYSTEM OCCURRING WITHIN AN UNUSUALLY COLD EARLY SPRING AIRMASS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND UPPER LOWER MICHIGAN ON DAY 1/SATURDAY AND
FROM WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


A SECOND SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW SOON AFTER THE FIRST AS AN
IMPRESSIVE EARLY APRIL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE IS LEFT
FOLLOWING THE FIRST SYSTEM WITH VERY COLD AIR ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM WILL ALSO AMPLIFY AND ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AFFECTING SOME
OF THE SAME LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM. ON DAY
2/SUNDAY...SNOW WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
MICHIGAN. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD...SNOW WILL AGAIN
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW
YORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. THERE
AGAIN IS A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HIGH PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER 4
INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER FROM SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW YORK
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE APRIL SUN COULD LESSEN
SNOWFALL TOTALS...HEAVIER RATES AND OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL WILL
OVERCOME THE POSSIBILITY OF RELATIVELY WARMER GROUND.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

KOCIN

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=qpfhsd


GYX probabilistic maps
Attached Image


Disco
QUOTE
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS OF CAA IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER SAT.

SAT NIGHT CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF A DIGGING
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WHICH DIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW/MID
LEVEL LOW TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY DEVELOP A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHERN AREAS BY LATER SAT NIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE AND FAST
MOVING. BASED ON THE AVERAGE MODEL TRACK THE HIGHEST ACCUMS WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 20S ELSEWHERE. GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR TOO WARM
AND PROBABLY DUE TO CLIMO BIAS FOR EARLY APRIL SO LOWERED THEM
SOME MORE INLINE WITH SCENERIO. PTYPE OF THIS EVENT WILL BE ALL
SNOW DUE TO VERY COLD SUPPORTING TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE INCREASING THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL EXIT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. SNOW WILL END DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH A
STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. THERE ARE SOME BANDING SIGNATURES PRESENT IN
THE MODELS AS WELL. WOULD EXPECT ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
SOUTHERNMOST NH AND SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY MAINE...HOWEVER WE NEED
TO THINK ABOUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MOST LIKELY A LITTLE LESS...PERHAPS 1 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED. THIS MAY BE TERRAIN DEPENDENT AS WELL.
13 Mar 2016
I've seen others taking about this time period, thought I'd start a place for discussion. Hope I don't jinx it. With this still a week out, I'd say almost all options are on the table.

There is still the system for this week to get through, I know that system isn't as appealing, but we still have to see it move through.

I titled it "Spring Storm" to reflect the nature of the storm, as well as it coinciding roughly with the spring equinox. Thus certainly doesn't mean that snow is off the table. Thus recent mild spell has certainly lulled me into warmer weather, but old man winter may still have something to say.

Start with the PMDEPD
QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1115 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016

VALID 12Z WED MAR 16 2016 - 12Z SUN MAR 20 2016

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE SLOW EXODUS OF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
GREAT LAKES AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WED-SUN. THE
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LOW MID-WEEK -- SPECIFICALLY HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. THERE SEEMS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT IN RECENT RUNS EXCEPT
FOR THE 12Z/12 ECMWF WHICH FALLS ON THE EDGE OF THE MULTI-CENTER
ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE AFTER WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS/GEFS/ECENS MEAN
OFFERED A REASONABLE COMPROMISE/BLENDED SOLUTION THAT FIT WITH WPC
CONTINUITY ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT IN THE EAST. MORE
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES APPEARS NEXT WEEKEND
IN THE CENTRAL STATES. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE NORTHERN STREAM OR
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS.
EITHER WAY, ENSEMBLES POINT TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT SUNDAY AND ALSO OFF THE NC COAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
EASTWARD.



...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR WEST
AND ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT ABOVE AVERAGE
IN THE EAST THIS WEEK BEFORE TRENDING BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN TIER AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WED-FRI, WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE ON THE NW SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE COLD FRONT SLOWS INTO THE GULF, RETURN FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES. FOCUS PER THE ENSEMBLES IS ALONG THE GULF COAST
BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE RAIN FARTHER NORTH. THE WEST
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY UNTIL LATER THIS COMING WEEKEND WHEN
TROUGHING MAY SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD CALIFORNIA. TRENDS HAS BEEN
TO DELAY ITS ARRIVAL AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


FRACASSO

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

ECMWF ENS with spread Hr 192
H5
Attached Image

MSLP
Attached Image
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...ERIOD=&WMO=

Euro OP hr 192
Attached Image

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f216.php

Gfs ensemble low passions
Attached Image

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...=0&ypos=415

UKie

Attached Image

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fc...1300/index.html
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