Make good memories, sometimes it's all we got
Rank: F5 Superstorm
25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
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Viewing Topic: 2015 Severe Weather Prediction Game
Local Time: May 22 2015, 05:59 AM
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15 May 2015
Hope this thread is copacetic with the mods.
Grr, apologies, sometimes the attachment don't attach
As rain has been hard to come by, and not a whole lot on the horizon, save the thread started by UTS which doesn't appear to be a "drought buster" at this point. The last widespread rain was around April 21, hence the 22nd as the start date.
Things aren't dire by any means, but I thought it was worth making a thread to monitor the situation.
Warm conditions dominated the region this week, helping to finally bring spring conditions to the area. Temperatures were generally at least 4 degrees above normal, with portions of New York, Pennsylvania and western New England being 12-16 degrees above normal. Overall, dry conditions dominated the region, with only some of the northern extent of the region recording up to 1.50 inches of precipitation. Changes made this week included D0 being expanded across all of New England and southeastern Pennsylvania. D0 was also expanded across northern Maryland and northern New Jersey. While spring has been off to a slow start, the dryness is starting to develop into impacts that are short-term in nature while water supply is in good shape.
WPC 7 day QPF forecast
GFS over the next 240 hours has a large portion of the region receiving < 1"
CMC give a goose egg to eastern Massachusetts over the next 10 days.
Percent of normal precip last 30 days
Percent of normal precip last 90 days
Departure last 90 days
3 May 2015
Hope that the mods are fine with this, and folks will participate, even just to vote. About 20,000 to go.
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Ok, first of all I'm not even sure I'll be able to figure out who it is, especially if it occurs during a flurry of posts. But I'm willing to try, and perhaps even a moderator could help us out. For fun I'll set a poll up too, with some of the more consistent posters.
I'm going with Undertakerson on November 17, 2015
I set up a poll, sorry if anyone feels excluded, I did my best to get consistent posters in various regions. (I took some liberties) I'll try to adjust and amend the choices as necessary. I'm not really expecting anyone to play along, but with the 2,000,000 milestone nearing, I thought it'd be fun. As I said, I'm open to alterations, it wasn't easy to come up with the list. I know that you can vote in all 5, but they only allowed 10 choices per question, so I had to create the regions to maximize the choices, so please just vote for one. Total. Thanks!
Edit: I guess you have to vote in all 5, that's fine, though.
I included a choice in the international for "field" for any names not listed n a poll, but as I get write-ins, I'll adjust.
10 Apr 2015
I'm likely a fool for opening this thread, so any insults and criticisms that come my way, are expected and well understood. but I like having something interesting to talk about.
Euro has been advertised an interesting system in this time frame.
10/12z ECMWF Hr 216
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10/12z ECMWF ensembles hr 216 H5
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10/12z GFS ensembles hr 204, timing differences, but all seem very troughy
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GFS reforecast teleconnection forecasts
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18 Mar 2015
This threat has been discussed in the other thread. I figured it would get opened, I just wanted to ensure it was maintained. We don't need any lectures about climatology, we all know the adversity that snowflakes must go through this time of year just to fall, let alone accumulate. So we are talking about potentials, good and bad. Solutions will change.
This is to cover UTS return travel.
Looks like the overnight guidance wants to keep this off shore. With 6+ days of lead time, I'm happy to talk about possibilities. One thing I won't forget, propensity for the northern stream to be stronger than modeled, and for models to rush "pattern change".
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 21 2015 - 12Z WED MAR 25 2015
COLD UPPER-LEVEL ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA---BEGINS TO
LIFT AWAY FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST AROUND
MID-PERIOD---AND A PACIFIC-INFLUENCED AIRSTREAM---WITH 2 MIGRATORY
SYSTEMS---BEGINNING TO ALTER THE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THE 17/12Z ECENS AND NAEFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
STABLE---MEDIUM FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER 48---AND A PACIFIC
SYSTEM MIGRATING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY---STARTS
THE CHANGE DOWNSTREAM---WITH THE FLOW PATTERN GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING AWAY FROM THE DEEP TROUGH THAT HAS KEPT THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST LOCKED IN THE COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS. THIS
SPLIT-FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND THE DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE SHOULD
KEEP BOTH STREAMS AND THEIR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEPARATED
FROM EACH OTHER FOR DAY 3-4---EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
OF THE 17/12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE---THE ECMWF APPEARED TO ME TO
BE THE BETTER PIECE OF FORECAST GUIDANCE---IN RECENT CYCLES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE EAST PACIFIC. AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY---THE ZONE OF CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE DELMARVA---A KEY
PIECE OF THE CURRENT SPLIT-FLOW PUZZLE. FOR THE MOST PART---ITS
(THE ECMWF) DEPICTION OF THE SHORTER-WAVELENGTH MIGRATORY DETAILS
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES EAST AND WITH THE CLOSED
LOW MIGRATION FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD
NOT OFFER MANY SURPRISES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS OFFERS A MORE COMPACT SOLUTION ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON DAY 5 (22/18Z) VERSUS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS---AND LESS SPLIT-FLOW INFLUENCE (THE GFS THIS
IS) OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 23/12Z. THE GFS ALSO MIGHT BE TOO
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST---BUT SO IS ITS
17/12Z GEFS MEAN ALONG 90W LONGITUDE BY 24/00Z. THAT LOOKS TO BE A
PHASED SHORTWAVE SOLUTION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE PHILOSOPHY HAS TRIED TO MAINTAIN A CONTINUED
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN EAST OF 100W LONGITUDE---AT LEAST UNTIL THE
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH IS DISPLACED FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION. THIS
CONCLUSION (AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST)---CONTENDS AND MAINTAINS A
CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW PATTERN ALONG 40N 80W NOT AN AMPLIFIED
ONE. THE 17/12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS WILL NOT SUPPORT THE IDEA...AND
THEREFORE GENERATES A PHASED CYCLONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AT DAY
7. IT DOES NOT SEEM REALISTIC AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
BY DAY 6...THE GFS (AS MENTIONED) LOOKS OUT OF PLACE WITH SEVERAL
FEATURES---BUT IS NOT ALONE. THE CANADIAN HAS A UNIQUE SOLUTION IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA BY DAY 5-6...AND IF USED EXCLUSIVELY...IS A
VERY SLOW AND AMPLIFIED DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA---AND IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ITS OWN MEAN.
WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE COMPONENTS IN PLACE AND NOT SHOWING MUCH
CHANGE OVER THE PAST 4-5-6 DAYS...STILL THINK THE 17/12Z NAEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND WILL PROVIDE THE BETTER RESULTS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE VERY SLOW-MOVING CUTOFF 500MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
GENERATE A WET SCENARIO AS ITS ENERGY MIGRATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS---DAY 3.
AN ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC LOOKS TO DELIVER TWO WET SYSTEMS TO THE
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS---WITH TWO MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EVENTS
SPREADING INLAND TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BETWEEN DAYS 3-6.
BY DAY 6...LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE CENTRAL
STATES---AND THE CULMINATION OF THE PATTERN CHANGE ORIGINATING IN
THE WESTERN US.
Euro ensembles 18/0z
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NCEP spaghetti Hr 144 18/0z
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Euro OP, despite being well off shore, looks like it could be an inverted trough up my way, with a little energetic closed low in New England. Perhaps another thread for the 28th potential shows up at hr 240 will be needed.
17 Feb 2015
This is to cover the potent upper level trough being carved out and any potential western Atlantic development and associated inverted trough. Let the fun begin. Hopefully I get some posts in here.
I really wanted to start this thread yesterday evening, but I had a long day, and my hands needed a rest. I apologize for not having much time this morning either, I haven't had much spare time, so my thoughts are limited. Just really going off of the GYX discussions.
For those who take issue with using Nor-Lun, here's the criteria, again.
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SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THE MAIN STORY AND FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL
BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN OFFSHORE INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL LIKELY
SHARPEN UP ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INLAND AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH MAY BRING A NARROW BUT
PERHAPS MOD/HVY BAND OF SNOW TO A PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ISSUE IS THAT THIS IS A
MESOSCALE FEATURE AND IT IS NEAR-IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WELL IN
ADVANCE WHERE EXACTLY IT WILL SET UP. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE
LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MAINE COAST NEAR PWM...AFFECTING THE EVENING
COMMUTE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY VERY WELL CHANGE AS WE DRAW NEARER TO
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE NOTED TO NWP OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND OVERALL
PICTURE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE SAME. A
NEARLY NEGATIVE 4 SIGMA H5 TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROF BRANCHING NWWD OFF THE
NW ATLANTIC LOW PRES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WAFFLE A BIT ON
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...NOT UNCOMMON...BUT FOCUS IS
NARROWING SOMEWHERE ON THE ME COAST LINE.
FEEL THAT SOME LIGHT SN OR SHSN ARE LIKELY EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER TROF...BUT OF NOTE ARE THE INGREDIENTS FORECAST TO
COME INTO PLAY NEAR THE INVERTED TROF. WITH SOME CURRENT DAY
APPROXIMATIONS FOR MODEL LEVELS...ALL OF THE CRITERIA NECESSARY
FOR A NORLUN INSTABILITY TROF ARE PRESENT ON THE 17.00Z GFS AND
NAM. MODEL VERTICAL RESOLUTION IN AWIPS IS LACKING FOR THE ECMWF
AND CMC-GLOBAL...BUT TEMP GRADIENT CAN BE INFERRED. IN
ESSENCE...DEEP H5 TROF WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE INVERTED TROF REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR SATURATION DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AT LEAST MODEST ELY INFLOW ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE TROF. POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
SUPPORT LIFT THRU H7. WHILE SOME EWD PROGRESSION IS FORECAST OF
THE INVERTED TROF...IT IS SLOW AND IS FORECAST TO SLOW EVEN
FURTHER WITH TIME. FINALLY H8 FLOW ISN/T NEGLIGIBLE...BUT IT IS
PARALLEL TO THE INVERTED TROF FURTHER HELPING TO FOCUS PCPN
POTENTIAL. GIVEN THIS SET UP...A SIGNIFICANT SNWFL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR THE ME COAST. QUITE POSSIBLY THIS COULD MIMIC THE MESOLOW
FEATURE THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT FOOT PLUS SN
AMOUNTS ALONG THE SEACOAST...AS THIS TYPE OF INSTABILITY CAN
SUPPORT EXTREME SNWFL RATES AT TIMES. THE 64 THOUSAND DOLLAR
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE TROF SET UP. THESE ARE NOTORIOUSLY
FICKLE MESOSCALE FEATURES...AND CAN EASILY SHIFT SEVERAL MILES
LEAVING SOME HIGH AND DRY WHILE OTHERS SEE SIGNIFICANT SNWFL. THE
FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE...WITH NO LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS FORECAST YET...DESPITE THE POTENTIAL. PER COLLABORATION
WITH NWS BOX AND CAR...INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE OFF THE ERN
MA COAST. TROF THEN MOVES NWD TO NEAR KPWM...LIFTING SLOWLY INTO
THE MIDCOAST. WHETHER IT STALLS THERE OR CONTINUES TO DOWN EAST
REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW WE/LL MAINTAIN
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP FROM KIWI TO KBHB WITH NWS CAR.
DAYS 1 TO 3...
...NORTHERN ROCKIES/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES/TENNESSEE VALLEY/APPALACHIANS/EAST COAST...
AS VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES ITS MARCH SOUTH AND EASTWARD FROM THE
TOP OF A PERSISTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US...A COMPLEX SYSTEM OF MOSTLY MOISTURE
STARVED WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL STILL PRODUCE POSSIBLE HIGH IMPACT
WINTER WEATHER OVER MANY PORTIONS OF THE NATION. A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE US WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY INTO A LONGWAVE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SOME OF THE LOWEST 1000/500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES TO DESCEND OVER THE EASTERN US WILL CONTINUE THE
ONSLAUGHT OF ANOMALOUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES AND SMALL IMPULSES WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MOSTLY LIGHT BUT STILL HIGH IMPACT
EVENTS DUE TO ITS AREAL EXTENT INTO SOME PLACES WHICH GET SNOW
INFREQUENTLY AS WELL AS POSSIBLE SHORT DURATION EVENTS COMBINED
WITH VERY LOW TEMPERATURES THAT IMPACT TRAVEL.
WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLDEST AIR WILL TAKE THE FORM OF A FRONT/TROUGH THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE HIGHLY ORGANIZED BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE
FLOW/LAKE EFFECT SNOW/CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD BE
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS TO THE
EAST COAST ON LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT WILL USHER IN THE
VERY COLD AIR TO MUCH OF THE EAST ON DAYS 2 INTO DAY 3.
ULTIMATELY...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON DAY 3 BUT THERE PRESENTLY IS TOO MUCH
SPREAD TO MAKE A CONFIDENT FORECAST OF WHEN AND WHERE THIS SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY AND HOW MUCH SNOW IT WILL PRODUCE. MOST
LIKELY...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AND
MAINE MAY SEE THE BRUNT OF IT ON DAY 3. THE OOZ VERSIONS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND UKMET ALL HAVE SOME SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ON DAY 3.
ONLY A FEW AREAS ARE INDICATED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 INCHES OF
SNOW OR GREATER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ON DAY 2...THE BEST CHANCES ARE
FOUND AROUND THE GREAT LAKES/OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
OVER WESTERN MAINE. ON DAY 3...THE ONLY AREA WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MAINE. PROBABILITIES ARE LOW SINCE DUE TO THE LARGE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS.
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WPC QPF days 1-3
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12 May 2015 - 20:57
25 Apr 2015 - 6:18
1 Apr 2015 - 21:45
30 Mar 2015 - 16:50
29 Mar 2015 - 10:13
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