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MaineJay
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
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Local Time: Oct 1 2016, 04:38 PM
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MaineJay

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8 Jul 2016
Figured I'd get the ball rolling on this one.

Looks like a short reprieve for some, mine's a but longer, but that's to be expected. smile.gif I'll refine the dates as necessary.

And I haven't posted in the drought thread in a bit, but it does roll on...

Area of severe drought showing up in NE Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire.

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8-14 day temp hazard.
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

6-10 day temps
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GYX
QUOTE
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Continued onshore easterly flow expected Saturday night into
Sunday even after initial round of more organized showers heads to
the east. Expect cool, cloudy, drizzly conditions. Upper level
low moves over the area on Sunday leading to widespread afternoon
showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Overall precipitation amounts
from this entire precipitation event are rather tame considering
how moist the atmosphere will be. Precipitable water values are up
to around 1.5 inches, but there is no persistent, organized
forcing to create a more widespread and significant rainfall.
Forecast rainfall amounts range from one quarter inch up to about
an inch with northern areas favored.

The upper low moves to the east Sunday night and high pressure
builds in at the surface. Any lingering showers should dissipate
fairly quickly Sunday evening. Cool weather continues Monday
though it will be dry.

Upper level ridge begins to move into the area for the rest of the
week, bringing heat from the center of the continent into New
England. Expect temperatures warming into the 80s and 90s as the
ridge moves overhead. As the ridge moves east a southwesterly
upper level flow over the area will continue to bring the heat
into New England
while also bringing a chance for showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the interior.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
26 Jun 2016
Instead of cluttering up the summer thread, and as an attempt to "jinx" the dry spell.

Suggestions on start date are appreciated, I know "June" is awful vague.

Areas of 6"+ deficits over the last 90'days are popping up.
Attached Image

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps

GYX disco
QUOTE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Much needed rains coming next week?

An upper level trough will gradually becoming negatively tilted
with time on Tuesday as is remains over the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday. At the same time, a slow moving cold front at the surface
will become quasi-stationary during the day. Ahead of the front,
a moist southerly flow will continue, allowing precipitable water
values to approach around 1.5 inches.

Models differ significantly as to the timing and placement of
shower activity during the day. Prefer a solution which would
suggest that most of the precipitation will be locked up across
the northernmost mountain areas on Tuesday
as best dynamics
remains well to our northwest.


As the atmosphere destabilizes and dynamics aloft approach our
forecast area, thunderstorms will develop in the area from about
HIE to Jackman area will likely receive an inch or more of
much needed rains as drought conditions continue in that region.
Unfortunately, further to the south, pops will be much lower away
from the stationary front and dynamics aloft. The chance for rain
will increase along the coast Tuesday night into Wednesday, but
the most likely scenario will be that more rain will fall over
northwestern portions of the forecast area as compared to
southeastern portion
s. Again, there are significant timing and
location differences from model to model and run to run.


A weak area of high pressure will allow for dry conditions on
Thursday before a fast moving impulse embedded within an upper
level trough rotates through the region on Friday. Rainfall is not
expected to be widespread.

The upper level trough will lead to considerable diurnal
cloudiness next weekend, but most communities will remain dry.

&&


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

Drought monitor
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QUOTE
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
Dry conditions prevailed over much of the region, though well-placed showers (1-2 inches) in southwestern Pennsylvanian and environs led to the removal of Moderate Drought (D1) and a reduction of Abnormal Dryness (D0) across the central Appalachians. In contrast, D0 and D1 were increased from New York into New England due to declining streamflows (locally below the 10th percentile) and a lack of rain over the past 90 days (less than half of normal). In fact, many of the Northeast’s D1 areas are now running rainfall deficits in excess of 6 inches over the past 6 months.


http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
22 May 2016
Well folks, I've gone and done it. I'm jinxing the warmth. smile.gif at the very least, it gives a place for discussion

Perhaps mother nature was just waiting for the unofficial start of summer to turn up the thermostat. Although the 84° yesterday imby was very summer-esque. smile.gif

ECMWF ensemble 850 temps on Monday @ 0z
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0z GFS 2m temps all valid at 18z

Sat
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Sun
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Mon

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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...2200&fh=120

Days 3-7 mean maximum temp anomaly
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http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml

I hope the WPC keeps it real, and the PMDEPD remains all CAPS. biggrin.gif

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1208 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

VALID 12Z WED MAY 25 2016 - 12Z SUN MAY 29 2016

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS WELL-FORECAST WITH TROUGHING RELOADING
IN THE WEST, BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS, AND RIDGING
IN THE EAST AFTER AN INITIAL SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.
MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND A
BLENDED/CONSENSUS APPROACH WAS USED. THE 18Z GFS/GEFS AND 12Z
CANADIAN/ECMWF/ECENS MEAN WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FORM A REASONABLE
STARTING POINT. THE MULTI-DAY ENSEMBLE TREND HAS FAVORED THE GEFS
MEAN OVER THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT THE LATEST RUNS WERE MUCH
CLOSER. THIS KEEPS A COUPLE FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE WEST WITH A
RATHER STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES,
PUNCTUATED BY WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOSTLY KEEP THE BOUNDARY
IN SOUTHERN CANADA OR NORTHERN NY/NEW ENGLAND.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

GENERALLY A COOLER THAN AVERAGE PATTERN FOR THE WEST WITH
PERSISTENT TROUGHING, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS (HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW) FOR THE PAC NW, SIERRAS, AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BOUNDARY IN
THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION,
DRIVEN BY CONVECTION AS WELL AS EMBEDDED VORT MAXES (WITH SFC LOW
REFLECTIONS) SHOOTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRIER/WARMER PATTERN IN
THE EAST,
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING FLORIDA WHERE A MID-LEVEL
WEAKNESS WILL ENCOURAGE SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

GYX with the normal caveats involved.
QUOTE
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Stacked low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast Monday evening
will move northward Monday night and Tuesday and bring the
likelihood of showers to our region. With cold temperatures aloft
a few thunderstorms will be possible owing to steepening lapse
rates. Thereafter, deep layer ridging looks to build across the
northeast states Wed through the weekend. Increasing heat and
humidity won`t be far away. However, backdoor front and/or general
onshore flow north of a weak warm front may indeed keep our
region (especially in Maine) significantly cooler during the late
week and weekend
. Weak short wave troughs moving through the flow
during that time may spark scattered showers and thunderstorms.
There will be a fairly thin line between summer arriving here and
onshore flow keeping things cool and cloudy. The 00z ECMWF keeps
much of Maine and portions of NH in the 50s and 60s over the next
weekend which isn`t a good sign. Such is the way spring oftentimes
goes here in northern New England.
The best chance of late week
and weekend heat will be across southern NH.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
27 Apr 2016
After seeing most of the 4.75" that fell yesterday fall between 10 am and 2 pm, I'm not taking any solution off the table. smile.gif 2" survived the night.

Alright, I told myself last night if the EURO held serve I'd start a thread. I chose the third specifically as there could be two storms close together, or one. Depending on the model and run time. Edit: changed to 2-3rd.

Attached Image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/wv.jpg

I believe the situation can be traced back to the two features circled in red. One is coming ashore California currently, and will form a four corners low. The second piece south of the Aleutian island hishits the CONUS Friday into Saturday. How they these two interact has seems to be a sensitive point for the models.

Fix
QUOTE
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE EXPECTED.

HEMISPHERIC 500 MB PATTERN FEATURES A BREAKDOWN OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NRN ATLANTIC...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
REF REX BLOCKING UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR GENERALLY QUIET WX...BUT COOLER...WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND.
AS THE REX BLOCK TO OUR WEST TRANSITIONS TO A RIDGE...MAY SEE A
TROUGHING DEVELOP OVER ERN NOAM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SENSIBLE WX WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THRU THE WEEKEND AS MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. SEVERAL WAVES PASS
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THEY STAY WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND KEEP THE CWA DRY INTO SUNDAY. COULD SEE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT EURO/GFS
DISAGREE ON WHEN AND WHERE...AND GFS ENSEMBLE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WHILE EURO RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS POOR AS WELL...SO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

AS STATED TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FOR FRI AND SAT...BUT SHOULD GET CLOSE TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MON/TUE REMAIN QUESTIONABLE DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH COASTAL
LOW...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO SKEW NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY WILL
SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND HIGHS 50 TO
60...BUT WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW THE COAST WILL CLOSER TO 50 THAN
60. SAT AND SUN WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 50S N TO LOW 60S
S...AND OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

ECMWF
Attached Image

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html#picture

UKie
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http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur....date_type=dateo

GFS seems to allow less of the first piece of energy escape, and focuses on the second ejection from the desert southwest.
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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...=0&ypos=141
25 Apr 2016
Interesting system moves through tomorrow. I've been watching the possibility for some late season snow, but didn't want to start a thread for just that. With the mid Atlantic and parts of southern New England having the possibility for severe weather, I figure that'll be what most focus on. Hope folks don't mind some potentially snowy posts. tongue.gif

Will start with the SPC risk area
Attached Image


QUOTE
OH VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK E/SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/WED. THIS WILL BRING A BELT OF 45+ KT
MIDLEVEL W/NW FLOW ACROSS THE MARGINAL RISK AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. SOME CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED...WHICH MAY LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION...BUT CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS. SOME STRONG WINDS
AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Man it's been dry up here. Red flags warnings, again today, but maybe snow tomorrow! Dropped below freezing this morning, this speaks to the arid nature of the air masses, and while certainly increasing the fire potential, it also increases wet bulb potential.

I have been keeping an eye on this, didn't really believe it, but kinda have to respect the possibility.

GYX even mentions a "fluff factor" laugh.gif but its it's true, ratios are not solely based on temperatures.

QUOTE
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST VERY WARM DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT
LEAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. FOR THE
COAST AND INLAND AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS. NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP COOLER AIR
BANKED IN ACROSS THE GREENS AND WHITES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE MID 40S TODAY. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-20 MPH
RANGE...AND THESE MARGINAL WINDS COMBINED WITH CRITICAL RH VALUES
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ESCALATED FIRE DANGER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MARCHES TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM STAYS
MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND TRAVELS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INITIALLY
WE WILL SEE RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE IT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH HEADWAY UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION DOES ARRIVE IT WILL COME
IN AS A WEDGE...KEEPING AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM PITTSBURG NH
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO BAR HARBOR ME DRY AND COOLER...WHILE SOUTH OF
THIS LINE PRECIPITATION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH NOT TOO
WARM) WILL PREVAIL.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB IN THE DRY AIRMASS...AND IN A
CRUEL TURN OF EVENTS ALLOW RAIN TO TURN TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE. SEVERAL MODELS
POINT TO A 2-4" SNOWFALL...WHICH IS NOTABLE ON THE HEELS OF A RED
FLAG DAY. THERE WILL BE A FLUFF FACTOR AND HAVE KEPT AN AVERAGE
OF 3" IN THE GRIDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
NORTH...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER AND NO
PRECIPITATION... TO THE MID 30S SOU
TH UNDER CLOUD COVER.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTH TO THE MID 40S NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
BACK TO MOSTLY RAIN ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER SPOTS WILL HOLD ONTO SNOW
LONGER. AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND END OVER
THE REGION.



Totals
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http://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter

4km NAM
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RGEM
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ARW

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