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MaineJay
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25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
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7 Aug 2015
Don't have a ton of time, but wanted to steer any discussion of this system into its own thread. So Vojtesak was not on the overnight disco, so I believe it was his last day of that shift, and wanted us to know that he would be wary of any phased solutions.

I'm thinking this could end up being a frontal, potentially strong. But as Vojtesak mentioned in yesterday's disco, the trough is only in the 560s with regard to H5 heights. Not exactly what we call "deep". Thinking the warmth and humidity might find a way build up east of the Appalachians. I know up here, frontal crossings have tended to "take their time". Wouldn't be surprised to see the timing slow down.

That was my Vojtesak impression. Off to work, spent too much time on this already.

7/0z ECMWF
120
Attached Image


144
Attached Image

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html#picture

7/0z NAEFS H5
120
Attached Image


144
Attached Image

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html

GYX
QUOTE
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
AND WILL HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANY MORNING SUN ON THURSDAY WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL LIKELY AGAIN
SEE CLOUDS BUBBLE UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
LIKELY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


Extended
QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 AM EDT FRI AUG 07 2015

VALID 12Z MON AUG 10 2015 - 12Z FRI AUG 14 2015

...OVERVIEW...

GUIDANCE AGREES UPON A CONTINUATION OF THE RECENTLY FAMILIAR
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN BUT WITH GREATER AMPLITUDE. DURING THE
DAYS 3-7 MON-FRI PERIOD THE PERSISTENT SRN TIER RIDGE SHOULD
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS IT DRIFTS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SHOULD BE DEEPEST EARLY-MID PERIOD WHILE
THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEEPEN INTO MIDWEEK AND
STABILIZE OR WEAKEN A LITTLE THEREAFTER.

WITHIN THE CONSENSUS MEAN PATTERN THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FCST APPEARS TO BE FROM THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
NRN TIER CONUS/SRN CANADA... RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORT
RANGE NERN PAC UPR LOW NEARING THE PAC NW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. DIFFS WITHIN THE ERN TROUGH ARE LESS PRONOUNCED THOUGH
STILL YIELD SOME EFFECT ON FCST SENSIBLE WEATHER ON A
REGIONAL/LOCAL BASIS.


...GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

FOR THE WEST COAST MEAN TROUGH... BY DAYS 4-5 TUE-WED GUIDANCE
SPREAD WIDENS REGARDING THE SWD EXTENT OF THE EMBEDDED UPR LOW.
INITIALLY THIS SPREAD ONLY IMPACTS THE FCST OVER AND JUST INLAND
FROM THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER THE LATITUDE REACHED BY THE UPR LOW
WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN TRACK/TIMING ONCE THE FEATURE
EJECTS NEWD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM ALEUTIANS SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS THE NERN PAC. THUS THE SPREAD THAT DEVELOPS INTO WED LEADS
TO INCREASINGLY VARIED POSSIBILITIES FOR THE SFC PATTERN AND ASSOC
CONVECTION/TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

THUS FAR GFS RUNS HAVE TENDED BRING THE CORE OF UPR LOW ENERGY
FARTHER SWD THAN MOST OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS... LEADING TO LATER
EJECTION. HOWEVER ECMWF TRENDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SWD AND NEW 00Z
UKMET/CMC SOLNS HAVE BROUGHT THE UPR LOW FARTHER SWD THAN THEIR
12Z RUNS. THE UKMET CHANGE IN CONTINUITY IS PARTICULARLY EXTREME
THOUGH WITH A FAST OUTLIER SOLN OVER THE NERN PAC. THE FULL
ENSEMBLE SPREAD CONTAINS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IDEAS. NOTE THE 12Z
ECMWF IS IN THE MINORITY WITH HOW MUCH IT DENTS THE NRN PERIPHERY
OF THE PLAINS RIDGE THU-FRI.

BASED ON GUIDANCE THROUGH THE 12Z/18Z CYCLE PREFER A COMPROMISE
AMONG THE 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS INTO DAY 5
WED... FOLLOWED BY THE MEANS EXCLUSIVELY BY THU-FRI TO MAINTAIN
BETTER CONTINUITY THAN COULD BE PROVIDED BY ANY OPERATIONAL SOLN.

ISSUES WITHIN THE ERN TROUGH ARE LESS DRAMATIC... FOR THE MOST
PART CONFINED TO TIMING AND DETAIL DIFFS. EVOLUTION UPSTREAM MAY
BEGIN TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPROMISE PROVIDES A GOOD INTERMEDIATE SOLN
FOR LOW PRESSURE FCST TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST AND TRAILING
FRONT THAT SHOULD PUSH RATHER FAR SWD FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THE
12Z ECMWF WAS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS WITH THE NERN SYSTEM
AT SOME FCST HRS.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

LOW PRESSURE/FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE EAST WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED RNFL... WITH BEST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SETTLING
OVER THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA AND THE SERN COAST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE FRONT DECELERATES. BEHIND THE FRONT THE LINGERING UPR
TROUGH MAY AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST UNDER LOWEST HGTS ALOFT. ENERGY
WITHIN THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST... BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
AS TO TIMING/EXTENT OF DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION AFTER WED.
MEANWHILE MONSOONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHWRS/TSTMS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES AND PSBLY EXTENDING
INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE SRN TIER AT THE START OF
THE WEEK... WITH PLUS 10-15F ANOMALIES FOR HIGHS MOST LIKELY
OVER/NEAR THE LOWER MS VLY. SOME DAILY RECORDS ARE PSBL. IT
SHOULD REMAIN VERY WARM/HOT FROM THE LWR MS VLY INTO SRN HIGH
PLAINS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD BUT WITH LESSER ANOMALIES.
UNSETTLED CONDS SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL HIGHS OVER THE
WEST WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS SHOULD SETTLE IN BEHIND
THE ERN FRONT. IN-BETWEEN EXPECT MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

RAUSCH

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd
2 Aug 2015
Looks like a decent shot at some thunderstorms, certainly possibly they are nothing special however. Typical timing issues up here, I consider any severe threat up my way a "thread-the-needle" affair.

SPC day 2
Attached Image


QUOTE
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN STATES INTO A
PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN STATES INTO THE
OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
AND A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...

EMBEDDED WITHIN BASE OF AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SERN
CANADA...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NERN STATES ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONT. TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS AREA.

...NERN STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY...

MODIFIED CP AIR WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT
THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AND CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST 500-1500
J/KG MLCAPE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
WILL RESIDE OVER THE OH VALLEY WHERE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
EXIST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER A PORTION OF THE NERN STATES.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WINDS WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW CIRCULATION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MAINLY DAMAGING WIND.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html


GYX discussion, this new guy Arnott is wordy, I like that.
QUOTE
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE PATTERN DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PORTENDS A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST AS HUDSON BAY LOW SETTLES SOUTH SOME INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW A BETTER MOISTURE PLUME NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE REGION...WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE IMPLIED
INCREASED DYNAMICAL FORCING AS PRIMARY RIBBON OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NEARS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWARD SINKING MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. THUS...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AT
LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ALOFT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
THIS PERIOD LIES IN IDENTIFYING WHEN/WHERE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR /IE WHERE/S THE TRIGGER/ AND HOW ROBUST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE.


TONIGHT: SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS SHOULD KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE.
INCREASING GRADIENT WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANY LOCATIONS TO REMAIN
COUPLED OVERNIGHT /OR RE-COUPLE AFTER GOING CALM FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING/ WITH THIS EFFECT LIKELY NOT ALLOWING FOG TO BE MUCH MORE
THAN PATCHY/ISOLATED DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A RE-COUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT...EXPECT A WARMER NIGHT THAN
IS ONGOING ATTM...WITH LOWS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY: POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE OF
TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE COUPLED
WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO 100+KT 1.5PVU
JET CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL START THE DAY OVER
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND RIDE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY...DRAGGING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE
WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LATER IN THE DAY EVENT...WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING
CAPPED IN THE MORNING WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THUS...WILL RESTRICT ANYTHING BUT SCHC POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON WITH
LIKELIES HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THREAT: DEEP SHEAR IS AMPLE /0-6KM VALUES NEAR 40KTS/ WITH
MLCAPES REACHING THE 750-1250 J/KG RANGE WITH THE MODEST INFLUX OF
LLEVEL MOISTURE. A GOOD BIT OF THE SHEAR OCCURS IN THE 0-3KM LAYER.
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR SW-NE IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE
FORCING BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT CELLS THAT CONGEAL INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS THEY TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST. SO...CERTAINLY A WIND
THREAT...WITH DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THUS
SOME HAIL CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE INCLUDING ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT IF WE SEE
ACTIVITY DELAY MUCH MORE INTO THE EVENING THAT WANING INSTABILITY
MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING
AND AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR
THE CWA.


IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE T8S TOWARDS +17-18C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE AWAY FROM THE COAST
TO MAKE A GOOD RUN AT 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

500 MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW INCURSION OF AIR FROM THE POLAR
JET TRAPPED IN CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL THEN WORK EWD INTO QUEBEC BY MID WEEK...WHERETHE
CLOSED LOW WILL HANG OUT FOR A FEW DAYS AND PROVIDE WITH COOLER
AIR...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. A PEEK AHEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK IN.

MONDAY EVENING STARTS OFF STORMY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND 500 MB WAVE BRINGS INCREASED WINDS AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ANY STORMS MON EVENING
PERHAPS WILL INTO MONDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS INSTABILITY.
THIS
FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT IN THE SW FLOW AND STALLS THE SFC FRONT
OVER THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. A SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
13 Jul 2015
I thought Dolores deserved a thread, she could impact the West Coast.
Attached Image
Lol, this should update within the half hour.
QUOTE
WTPZ35 KNHC 130538
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
100 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...DOLORES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 104.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 104.5 West. Dolores is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Dolores should begin to move away from the
southwestern coast of Mexico later this morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores is
expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
tonight through Monday.

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Dolores are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the southwestern
coast of Mexico from the state of Oaxaca to Nayarit, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are expected to affect the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico during the next few
days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

12/12z EURO ensemble tracks
Attached Image

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/jpeng/tra...s/tc_track.html


13/0z GFS ensemble tracks
Attached Image

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emc.../index_old.html

13/0z Euro@hr 192 depicts Dolores off the California, with the remnants ending up coming ashore near the California/Oregon border.
Attached Image

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...=0&ypos=274

Extended disco
QUOTE
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE... FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE NORTHERN
STATES AND ALSO IN THE EAST. HOWEVER... POOL OF RELATIVELY HIGH PW
AIR WILL LINGER OVER FLORIDA... HELPING TO ENHANCE PRECIP THROUGH
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS. SSE FLOW OUT OF OLD MEXICO INTO THE
SW STATES WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS INTO PORTIONS OF
AZ/UT AND THEN NV/UT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE HOT FROM
TEXAS TO GEORGIA... NEAR 100F IN MANY LOCATIONS... BUT PROBABLY
NOT RECORD-BREAKING. BUT... PERSISTENCE OF THE HEAT MAY BECOME
LONG IN THE TOOTH BY NEXT WEEK SHOULD THE PATTERN REMAIN IN PLACE.
LASTLY... THOUGH THE ENSEMBLES TAKE TROPICAL STORM DOLORES OUT TO
ABOUT 120-125W NEXT SUN/MON... SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING IN
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE -- AND QPF -- INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEXT WEEK. NOT BUYING INTO THAT AT THIS POINT... BUT WILL WATCH
ITS EVENTUAL TRACK UNFOLD.



FRACASSO

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd
2 Jul 2015
Hoping everyone has a fun and safe holiday weekend! The weather is shaping up to be rather pleasant up here. Oh, and by pleasant I mean 70s, maybe low 80s, with relatively low humidity. I'm not one who enjoys the HHH kinda weather. smile.gif

GYX discussion

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT TWO TO SEVEN DAYS LOOK MOSTLY PRECIPITATION FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ON SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE BUT INFLUENCES THE
WEATHER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUPPLYING SUNNY SKIES AND A
SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THIS FEATURE.

BY THAT NIGHT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH SHARPENS ON SUNDAY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. STILL THE SHOWERS WILL
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS GO AND SHOULD
EXIT THE AREA BY THE EVENING.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

Some 2/0z model output

ECMWF Hr 48
Attached Image

72
Attached Image

NAM hr 48
Attached Image

72
Attached Image

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html
22 May 2015
Thought I'd open a thread for the summer-like conditions that look to set up shop. I'll adjust dates as needed, but looks like the heat begins to build on Monday, and lingers through the works week for many.

Cue "Summer" by War

Attached Image

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gSQAlfyaKyc

3-7 day mean min temps
Attached Image


3-7 day mean max temps
Attached Image


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml

Hazards days 3-7
Attached Image


8-14
Attached Image

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/


Extended disco
QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAY 25 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 29 2015

...OVERVIEW...
THE LOWER 48 WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN A TRANSITION PERIOD
BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 --- AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ARE TEMPORARILY ALTERED AND INFLUENCED BY A SERIES OF UNRELATED
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES. IN THE WEST---THE RIDGE IS INFLUENCED BY
A DEEP TROUGH MIGRATING FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF ALASKA. AND IN THE EAST--- A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ---
ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC--- MIGRATES INTO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIA.


...MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE 21/12Z GFS/ECMWF MAINTAIN A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE---AND BOTH SUPPORT THE GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE APPALACHIANS.
LIKEWISE---THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
FROM FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
. THE PAST TWO OR THREE WPC
FORECAST CYCLES HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED AN ECENS/GEFS BLEND AND
COULD NOT FIND FAULT IN CONTINUING THIS TRAIN OF THOUGHT THIS
MORNING.

...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 --- THE PATTERN IS IN A BRIEF TRANSITION AND THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA --- UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE... AND EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UNUSUALLY-ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AXIS BETWEEN 20N-30N.

IN THE MIDWEST AND EAST --- THE CHALLENGE IS WITH TRAJECTORY AND
DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATION (DAYS 4-6) FROM THE PLAINS TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THEN CONSOLIDATION OF A COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE CYCLONE MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES-OHIO
VALLEY AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND THE FRONT'S ABILITY TO TEMPER THE HEAT/HUMIDITY
UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE. ECMWF GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE A
GOOD DEAL WARMER THAN THE GFS --- AND LOCAL/REGIONAL FORECASTER
PREFERENCES MAY ADD VALUE HERE.


IN THE WEST---THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
CONSOLIDATES ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. AND TO COMPLICATE MATTERS --- THE
PERSISTENCE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IN THE EAST PAC --- ALONG 140W
BETWEEN 20N AND 40N WILL BE EMBEDDED WITH CUTOFF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY---ALLOWING A SECOND ENTRY POINT FOR MOISTURE TO MIGRATE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS AND 'FEEL' ARE EXPECTED BENEATH THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST.


FOR THE PLAINS AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
--- AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MID-LEVEL
ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE GREAT
BASIN. A CONSOLIDATED SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE
INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND AND WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES THE APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.

UNSETTLED IN THE WEST...WITH A COOLER...ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT
EXPECTED TO DIRECT UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO WEST-FACING AND
SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES.

VOJTESAK

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd
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