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MaineJay
Rank: F5 Superstorm
Age Unknown
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25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Birthday Unknown
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Joined: 15-February 13
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Last Seen: Yesterday, 05:21 PM
Local Time: Feb 22 2017, 01:10 AM
6,850 posts (5 per day)
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MaineJay

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12 Feb 2017
Thought this might get stated overnight.

Precip is moving into the sub region, figured I would get the ball rolling. smile.gif

It's actually lightly snowing here still.

Good luck all!

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29 Jan 2017
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12 Jan 2017
I can hear the grumbling, so I added a poll where folks can pair a cheese with their whine. tongue.gif I invite all our forum members to vote. smile.gif

Yup, I went and did it, figured I could start another warm storm thread. dry.gif but think of it this way, we start threads with weenie runs that only trend worse. I'm trying the opposite approach.

Apologies for the 3 day span, it's to account for timing differences.

EPS
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GEFS

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ECMWF

168
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192

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12.6z gfs
I circled our hail Mary, just needs to dig, and a number of other things. smile.gif might take extraordinary events, but weather never ceases to surprise.


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8 Jan 2017
I took the liberty of starting a thread for these dates, figure is easier than hoping the other thread is updated.

NAM
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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0

Ukie
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DWD
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http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur....date_type=dateo
30 Dec 2016
Gonna start another thread that no one wants. Not trying to hit a five run homer, just documenting. And would hate to look past an icing event.

30.12z suite all hr 96

Ukie
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ECMWF
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GFS
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GYX disco
QUOTE
The next significant storm system will feature a trough moving
through the northern plains and Great Lakes with the primary
surface low staying well to our northwest. This puts our region in
the warm sector of the broader cyclone. BUT that doesn`t mean we
will be warm. Models are consistent in developing at least a hint
of a secondary surface low developing over southern New England on
Tuesday which strengthens an easterly flow over northern New
England ahead of it. Although the models like to forecast this as
an easterly flow, in reality this will be a cold air dammed flow
with winds across most of western Maine and eastern New Hampshire
actually coming from the north with cold temperatures lodged in
place. This is a significant factor considering precipitation will
be arriving on Tuesday. Temperatures aloft are expected to be warm
considering our location within the broader warm sector, but
surface temperatures will likely be below freezing for most of the
area as precipitation begins. As a result, expect perhaps a brief
period of snow at the onset but precipitation will quickly change
to freezing rain.


It is likely that temperatures will warm above freezing during
the day Tuesday across southern and western New Hampshire, but
western Maine and east central New Hampshire may not be so lucky.
While model forecasts want to bring temperatures into the upper
30s to low 40s across the whole area, experience reminds us that
cold air damming will keep the cold temperatures in place
especially over interior western Maine and east central New
Hampshire. Coastal areas may warm up depending on the track of the
coastal low and the resulting coastal front. At this point
freezing rain is a threat areawide, but the longest duration of
icing will be possible across the interior eastern foothills
from Conway to Farmington and Skowhegan
. As the coastal low and
broader trough/occluded front cross through the area Wednesday
night temperatures will warm to near or above freezing areawide as
precipitation ends.
Last Visitors


18 Feb 2017 - 10:33


13 Feb 2017 - 11:27


10 Feb 2017 - 19:29


22 Jan 2017 - 17:21


9 Jan 2017 - 22:41

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