Make good memories, sometimes it's all we got
Rank: F5 Superstorm
25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
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Joined: 15-February 13
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Local Time: Jul 30 2015, 08:06 AM
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13 Jul 2015
I thought Dolores deserved a thread, she could impact the West Coast.
Lol, this should update within the half hour.
WTPZ35 KNHC 130538
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
100 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
...DOLORES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 104.5 West. Dolores is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Dolores should begin to move away from the
southwestern coast of Mexico later this morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores is
expected to become a hurricane later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
tonight through Monday.
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Dolores are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the southwestern
coast of Mexico from the state of Oaxaca to Nayarit, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are expected to affect the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico during the next few
days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
12/12z EURO ensemble tracks
13/0z GFS ensemble tracks
13/0z Euro@hr 192 depicts Dolores off the California, with the remnants ending up coming ashore near the California/Oregon border.
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE... FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE NORTHERN
STATES AND ALSO IN THE EAST. HOWEVER... POOL OF RELATIVELY HIGH PW
AIR WILL LINGER OVER FLORIDA... HELPING TO ENHANCE PRECIP THROUGH
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS. SSE FLOW OUT OF OLD MEXICO INTO THE
SW STATES WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS INTO PORTIONS OF
AZ/UT AND THEN NV/UT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE HOT FROM
TEXAS TO GEORGIA... NEAR 100F IN MANY LOCATIONS... BUT PROBABLY
NOT RECORD-BREAKING. BUT... PERSISTENCE OF THE HEAT MAY BECOME
LONG IN THE TOOTH BY NEXT WEEK SHOULD THE PATTERN REMAIN IN PLACE.
LASTLY... THOUGH THE ENSEMBLES TAKE TROPICAL STORM DOLORES OUT TO
ABOUT 120-125W NEXT SUN/MON... SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING IN
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE -- AND QPF -- INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEXT WEEK. NOT BUYING INTO THAT AT THIS POINT... BUT WILL WATCH
ITS EVENTUAL TRACK UNFOLD.
2 Jul 2015
Hoping everyone has a fun and safe holiday weekend! The weather is shaping up to be rather pleasant up here. Oh, and by pleasant I mean 70s, maybe low 80s, with relatively low humidity. I'm not one who enjoys the HHH kinda weather.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT TWO TO SEVEN DAYS LOOK MOSTLY PRECIPITATION FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ON SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE BUT INFLUENCES THE
WEATHER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUPPLYING SUNNY SKIES AND A
SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THIS FEATURE.
BY THAT NIGHT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH SHARPENS ON SUNDAY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. STILL THE SHOWERS WILL
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS GO AND SHOULD
EXIT THE AREA BY THE EVENING.
Some 2/0z model output
ECMWF Hr 48
NAM hr 48
22 May 2015
Thought I'd open a thread for the summer-like conditions that look to set up shop. I'll adjust dates as needed, but looks like the heat begins to build on Monday, and lingers through the works week for many.
Cue "Summer" by War
3-7 day mean min temps
3-7 day mean max temps
Hazards days 3-7
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
VALID 12Z MON MAY 25 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 29 2015
THE LOWER 48 WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN A TRANSITION PERIOD
BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 --- AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ARE TEMPORARILY ALTERED AND INFLUENCED BY A SERIES OF UNRELATED
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES. IN THE WEST---THE RIDGE IS INFLUENCED BY
A DEEP TROUGH MIGRATING FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF ALASKA. AND IN THE EAST--- A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ---
ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC--- MIGRATES INTO SOUTHERN
THE 21/12Z GFS/ECMWF MAINTAIN A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE---AND BOTH SUPPORT THE GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE APPALACHIANS.
LIKEWISE---THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
FROM FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PAST TWO OR THREE WPC
FORECAST CYCLES HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED AN ECENS/GEFS BLEND AND
COULD NOT FIND FAULT IN CONTINUING THIS TRAIN OF THOUGHT THIS
BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 --- THE PATTERN IS IN A BRIEF TRANSITION AND THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA --- UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE... AND EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UNUSUALLY-ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AXIS BETWEEN 20N-30N.
IN THE MIDWEST AND EAST --- THE CHALLENGE IS WITH TRAJECTORY AND
DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATION (DAYS 4-6) FROM THE PLAINS TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THEN CONSOLIDATION OF A COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE CYCLONE MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES-OHIO
VALLEY AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND THE FRONT'S ABILITY TO TEMPER THE HEAT/HUMIDITY
UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE. ECMWF GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE A
GOOD DEAL WARMER THAN THE GFS --- AND LOCAL/REGIONAL FORECASTER
PREFERENCES MAY ADD VALUE HERE.
IN THE WEST---THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
CONSOLIDATES ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. AND TO COMPLICATE MATTERS --- THE
PERSISTENCE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IN THE EAST PAC --- ALONG 140W
BETWEEN 20N AND 40N WILL BE EMBEDDED WITH CUTOFF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY---ALLOWING A SECOND ENTRY POINT FOR MOISTURE TO MIGRATE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS AND 'FEEL' ARE EXPECTED BENEATH THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST.
FOR THE PLAINS AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
--- AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MID-LEVEL
ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE GREAT
BASIN. A CONSOLIDATED SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE
INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND AND WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES THE APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
UNSETTLED IN THE WEST...WITH A COOLER...ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT
EXPECTED TO DIRECT UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO WEST-FACING AND
15 May 2015
Hope this thread is copacetic with the mods.
Grr, apologies, sometimes the attachment don't attach
As rain has been hard to come by, and not a whole lot on the horizon, save the thread started by UTS which doesn't appear to be a "drought buster" at this point. The last widespread rain was around April 21, hence the 22nd as the start date.
Things aren't dire by any means, but I thought it was worth making a thread to monitor the situation.
Warm conditions dominated the region this week, helping to finally bring spring conditions to the area. Temperatures were generally at least 4 degrees above normal, with portions of New York, Pennsylvania and western New England being 12-16 degrees above normal. Overall, dry conditions dominated the region, with only some of the northern extent of the region recording up to 1.50 inches of precipitation. Changes made this week included D0 being expanded across all of New England and southeastern Pennsylvania. D0 was also expanded across northern Maryland and northern New Jersey. While spring has been off to a slow start, the dryness is starting to develop into impacts that are short-term in nature while water supply is in good shape.
WPC 7 day QPF forecast
GFS over the next 240 hours has a large portion of the region receiving < 1"
CMC give a goose egg to eastern Massachusetts over the next 10 days.
Percent of normal precip last 30 days
Percent of normal precip last 90 days
Departure last 90 days
3 May 2015
Hope that the mods are fine with this, and folks will participate, even just to vote. About 20,000 to go.
Screenshot_2015_05_03_09_38_50.png ( 169.56K ) Number of downloads: 0
Ok, first of all I'm not even sure I'll be able to figure out who it is, especially if it occurs during a flurry of posts. But I'm willing to try, and perhaps even a moderator could help us out. For fun I'll set a poll up too, with some of the more consistent posters.
I'm going with Undertakerson on November 17, 2015
I set up a poll, sorry if anyone feels excluded, I did my best to get consistent posters in various regions. (I took some liberties) I'll try to adjust and amend the choices as necessary. I'm not really expecting anyone to play along, but with the 2,000,000 milestone nearing, I thought it'd be fun. As I said, I'm open to alterations, it wasn't easy to come up with the list. I know that you can vote in all 5, but they only allowed 10 choices per question, so I had to create the regions to maximize the choices, so please just vote for one. Total. Thanks!
Edit: I guess you have to vote in all 5, that's fine, though.
I included a choice in the international for "field" for any names not listed n a poll, but as I get write-ins, I'll adjust.
4 Jul 2015 - 5:58
3 Jul 2015 - 4:57
11 Jun 2015 - 7:50
12 May 2015 - 20:57
25 Apr 2015 - 6:18
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