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StL weatherjunkie
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StL weatherjunkie

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1 Mar 2014
Precipitation has broken out across the north central plains

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Let the now-casting begin.
24 Feb 2014
Nothing too spectacular here, but the storm should at least prompt winter weather advisory criteria impacts in portions of the area. Here's the 12z GFS solution showing the system tracking eastwards into Tennessee
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18 Feb 2014
Yes, I know this potential event isn't even showing up by the end of the 00z EURO, so you are probably asking: "Why should this potential storm even be mentioned?" and I don't blame you, but ...
1. I am bored and there are no noteworthy systems forecast to impact my region in the near term with the exception of potential severe thunderstorms on Thursday.
2. There is a surprising amount of model agreement on large scale features in the 168-240 hour time frame.
3. March is no stranger to epic winter storms, and this synoptic scale set up has EPIC written all over it.
4. I could continue the list, but I really just wanted to be the guy that called this storm 2 weeks before it happens (at least I sure hope it does) smile.gif

Below are the 2/17 12z followed by the 2/18 00z operational Euro (left), GFS (middle), Canadian (right). The images depict 500 mb heights averaged between forecast hours 168 and 240, and the shading represents height anomalies.

Now for the, "SO WHAT?" question, to begin answering this I will identify the major features on these maps:
1. Strong ridging depicted by all models along the west coast with the greatest anomalies located near Alaska.
2. Strong troughing depicted by all models across the eastern half of North America
(P.S. This upper level flow regime has been the name of the game this winter so that's a big check mark for this actually unfolding.)
3. Highly anomalous and deep trough just off the west coast, which has not been present this winter.
(P.S.) This is somewhat of a red flag except, all 3 major global models agree that its going to happen for at least 2 consecutive model runs.

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Now for the people who say, "Okay great, you can explain the big red and blue spots ... but that still isn't showing a major storm in the Midwest, so whats up with that?"
1. You are right! There is a certain amount of wishcasting going into this, but were getting into that time of year where warm and moist Gulf air begins flirting with built up arctic air. Personally, I would really like to see the Gulf air man up and ask the Arctic air on a date, but that's enough personification of inanimate objects for today anyways.
2. I would now like to transition your attention to the image below, which is the most recent 00z EURO at the end of it's deterministic forecast (hour 240). Note how the juicy subtropical trough is undercutting the Alaskan ridge just in time to meet up with a classy arctic trough tracking south through BC on the back of a 486 dm Polar Vortex located just south of the Hudson Bay. This solution suggests a serious phasing potential, but we'll see.
3. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of this solution is the temperature gradient at 850 mb (bottom right panel). This is showing a 50 C temperature gradient over approximately 1200 miles (ie +20 C air in NM and TX contrasting -30 C air just north of MN) ... now that's a baroclinic zone if I've ever seen one!!!!

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My spiel is now over! Given how far out this is, I want to discourage posting operational models (like it I did) and would instead encourage ensemble means smile.gif
Thanks for reading!
14 Jan 2013
The past couple NAM/DGEX/SREF clusters have consistently hinted at the energy currently near the 4 corners region will become cut off and eject northeastwards across the southern plains. Given the cold air mass in place this system would be capable of producing significant snow and perhaps other p-types on it northeastward trek. None of the global models support this idea ... yet ...
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12 Nov 2009
Despite how much i disagree with making a thread this far in advance the 00z gfs ensembles show considerable agreement on the formation of a storm during this time frame. At this time it is being shown to be quite similar to the upcoming 14-18 storm, in that it gets cut off from the flow and just kind of meanders around the midwest. Heres the 00z and 06z gfs ensemble means and click the link to show individual 00z ensemble images http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_0z/f228.html
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bubbles
Howdy!
13 Dec 2008 - 18:15

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